Jake Arrieta's last three starts: 20 IP, 3 BB, 1 HR, 18 SO

[Jordan Tuwiner]

I had been saying in this thread for a while that Jake Arrieta's bad luck would eventually have to turn around.

It appears that's finally happening. Over his last three starts he's walked 3, struck out 18, gone at least 6 innings each times (7 IP twice, 20 IP total), and has only given up one home run.

Now let's hope Arrieta can keep this up to create a solid 1-2-3 of Hammel, Chen, and Arrieta.

[Matt P]

He has definitely looked a lot better. The Nationals and Pirates are two of the worst offensive teams in the majors though. Going to need to see him do better against some good AL teams before even considering him a solid 3rd starter.

[Zach]

Watching him pitch today what impressed me most was how well he was able to adjust. The guys I was sitting with at the park commented on the high pitch count after three innings. What we noticed was that he started to utilize his other pitches (very effectively, especially the curveball) after having difficulty locating his fastball for those first couple of innings.

[ofahn]

Now let's hope Arrieta can keep this up to create a solid 1-2-3 of Hammel, Chen, and Arrieta.

I'm optimistic that Matusz will make that a foursome. Hunter should be converted to a reliever.

[TuckerBlair89]

I liked what I saw at times today from Jake. His change seems to really keep hitters off-guard when it is working.
It sets his fastball up pretty well when he can locate it.
I think we are seeing Jake really "learn" the past month or so. He did note that himself. Of course, now the true test is to keep this up. But very encouraging. I'm not ready to throw the towel in on him like some are.

A pitcher can be wild like Arrieta if they mix and match efficient and effectively.

[birdwatcher55]

I keep thinking back to April when he totally shut down the Yankees. Is this the guy we can get on a consistent basis???

[A_K]

I wish people would at least acknowledge the substance of Jordan's previous defense of Arrieta, which was entirely based on his seeming spate of bad luck on batted balls and random clustering of hits. The point then was that he was actually pitching just fine but was getting bad results by sheer virtue of bad luck, and that if he continued pitching the very same way he'd be likely to start experiencing better luck. I don't doubt that he made some changes, but those who dismissed the notion that results can be a bad indicator of performance level should at least acknowledge that Arrieta's past three starts are perhaps evidence of Jordan's initial claim.

[birdwatcher55]

I'm not ready to give Arrieta a pass here. He was simply awful in some of his recent starts before this good stretch. IF and it's a big IF he finishes the season strong, I will sign on with the idea that he has finally arrived. Until then, I think he still has a lot to prove as a major league starter as well as debunk the notion he is better off as a late inning reliever

[Matt P]

I wish people would at least acknowledge the substance of Jordan's previous defense of Arrieta, which was entirely based on his seeming spate of bad luck on batted balls and random clustering of hits. The point then was that he was actually pitching just fine but was getting bad results by sheer virtue of bad luck, and that if he continued pitching the very same way he'd be likely to start experiencing better luck. I don't doubt that he made some changes, but those who dismissed the notion that results can be a bad indicator of performance level should at least acknowledge that Arrieta's past three starts are perhaps evidence of Jordan's initial claim.

Giving up hard hit balls on pitches right over the plate and having mental breakdowns has nothing to do with luck.

[A_K]

I wish people would at least acknowledge the substance of Jordan's previous defense of Arrieta, which was entirely based on his seeming spate of bad luck on batted balls and random clustering of hits. The point then was that he was actually pitching just fine but was getting bad results by sheer virtue of bad luck, and that if he continued pitching the very same way he'd be likely to start experiencing better luck. I don't doubt that he made some changes, but those who dismissed the notion that results can be a bad indicator of performance level should at least acknowledge that Arrieta's past three starts are perhaps evidence of Jordan's initial claim.

Giving up hard hit balls on pitches right over the plate and having mental breakdowns has nothing to do with luck.

This isn't an argument. It's a logical fallacy known as "begging the question." You've avoided the conversation.

[Matt P]

How am I avoiding anything? I posted in that thread. He falls behind in counts and then is forced to throw fastballs. The hitters are in hitters counts and know a fastball is coming. That's why his LD% is high.

[A_K]

How am I avoiding anything? I posted in that thread. He falls behind in counts and then is forced to throw fastballs. The hitters are in hitters counts and know a fastball is coming. That's why his LD% is high.

Look at it this way. Some people said "Arrieta's getting unlucky" and others said "this has nothing to do with luck." Then, given new results to discuss, someone said "see, look, he was just getting unlucky" to which you replied "this has nothing to do with luck." You're simply restating your initial argument while ignoring the counterargument that's based on new evidence. That's not to say you're wrong, it's just to say you've made no effort to prove your point.

[Matt P]

How am I avoiding anything? I posted in that thread. He falls behind in counts and then is forced to throw fastballs. The hitters are in hitters counts and know a fastball is coming. That's why his LD% is high.

Look at it this way. Some people said "Arrieta's getting unlucky" and others said "this has nothing to do with luck." Then, given new results to discuss, someone said "see, look, he was just getting unlucky" to which you replied "this has nothing to do with luck." You're simply restating your initial argument while ignoring the counterargument that's based on new evidence. That's not to say you're wrong, it's just to say you've made no effort to prove your point.

I was firmly in the camp that it wasn't luck and I still am. I responded to the "see look" by pointing out it's a small sample size and two of the three teams he pitched against were two of the worst offensive teams in all of baseball. If you read that other thread you'll see that I prove it wasn't luck.

[Matt P]

This is why one shouldn't get excited about a small sample size against weak NL teams. Yes, the defense let him down but the defense has let down every pitcher on the staff this season. He still had opportunities to limit the damage done and couldn't. I still believe it is 100% mental with Arrieta more than anything. As soon as something goes wrong (a misplay, a missed strike call by the umpire, a bloop hit, etc.) he just can't get it back together. Ben McDonald said it during the radio broadcast early on that he gets into too many fastball counts which is giving the hitters a huge advantage and is a huge reason for his struggles.

[Matt P]

Like I have stated numerous times, it isn't luck.