Jake Arrieta: luck, BABIP, LOB%, and more

[TuckerBlair89]

It looks like his next 2 starts are against the Philles and Pirates. In terms of scoring the Phillies have been average and the Pirates have been the worst in baseball. Let's hope he can turn it around against these two teams.

If he doesn't with those two, I would not be surprised if he gets demoted.

[CSPitt17130]

That first inning was a perfect example of being "unlucky" with BABIP. Three singles that were not hit particularly hard (or not hard at all in Thome's case) that were placed well resulting in hits.

[osforlife]

Is there a stat that tells you the average speed of a ball put in play against a pitcher? Because if a hitter squares up on a pitch, more times than not he's gonna get a hit. But if a hitter weakly hits it (but is still put in play) more times than not, he's not gonna get a hit. Hitters are squaring up on Arrieta which means he'll have to wish for a line drive right at somebody. But most of the time, its not gonna go right at somebody.

[DougDE]

However he gets there, unlucky or not, he cant keep major leaguers from crossing home plate right now. I think he needs to go to the minors to reset himself. Tillman cant be any worse right now. And hopefully Britton's ready soon

[Matt P]

He actually said he's lost after the game. Wow, and people think he shouldn't be demoted?

[osforlife]

I could make a case for even Eveland starting a few games.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

He actually said he's lost after the game. Wow, and people think he shouldn't be demoted?

Nope. Still don't think he should be demoted.

No better options and not sure what going to the minors would do. Still think his BABIP and LOB% have to return to normal at some point. The stuff, Ks, and lack of walks are there.

[Matt P]

So, since he is striking out people and not walking as much he shouldn't be demoted?

From Melewski's blog tonight about Arrieta:
* He has an ERA now of 11.09 over his last four starts.
* He is 0-6 with an ERA of 9.34 over his past seven starts.
* He has allowed four runs or more in 10 of 13 starts in 2012.

I ask this question sincerely and hope it doesn't come off the wrong way but do you watch the games he pitches or do you base your opinion solely on sabermetrics? He has no confidence at all. He even said after the game tonight that he is lost. How can you reasonably continue to let him pitch in the majors when he has no confidence?

I don't think they will be competing at the end of the year for a playoff spot but as of right now they are and the team seems to think they can hang around. Why would you pretty much forfeit one out of every five games by throwing out a pitcher that is lost? He needs to go down to AAA simply to get his confidence back. If he dominates AAA line ups like he should and his confidence has returned it's not like he is stuck down there for the rest of his life. He has a better chance of getting his head straight in the minors where he can work on things and not have any pressure than it will be pitching in Baltimore. It's mostly all mental with Arrieta at this point.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

I ask this question sincerely and hope it doesn't come off the wrong way but do you watch the games he pitches or do you base your opinion solely on sabermetrics? He has no confidence at all. He even said after the game tonight that he is lost. How can you reasonably continue to let him pitch in the majors when he has no confidence?

I don't think they will be competing at the end of the year for a playoff spot but as of right now they are and the team seems to think they can hang around. Why would you pretty much forfeit one out of every five games by throwing out a pitcher that is lost? He needs to go down to AAA simply to get his confidence back. If he dominates AAA line ups like he should and his confidence has returned it's not like he is stuck down there for the rest of his life. He has a better chance of getting his head straight in the minors where he can work on things and not have any pressure than it will be pitching in Baltimore. It's mostly all mental with Arrieta at this point.

Yes, I do watch the games. By no means am I trying to say that Arrieta has been a good pitcher. I'm just trying to explain that the statistics show is not THIS bad. Yes, he's been bad. But he has been unlucky and the statistics point towards him improving.

He's moving to the bullpen for now, which is good for him. Moving to AAA wouldn't have done much and now the O's have another power arm in their bullpen. I think he'll be back in the rotation soon.

[OriolesRedskins28]

Yes, I do watch the games. By no means am I trying to say that Arrieta has been a good pitcher. I'm just trying to explain that the statistics show is not THIS bad. Yes, he's been bad. But he has been unlucky and the statistics point towards him improving.

He's moving to the bullpen for now, which is good for him. Moving to AAA wouldn't have done much and now the O's have another power arm in their bullpen. I think he'll be back in the rotation soon.

I agree. I like the decision to let him work out his issues from the bullpen. He'll be facing major league hitters and it will help the bullpen to have another power arm available.

In reference to Tillman I think his situation is similar to Avery's in that they want him to stay in AAA to continue to work on things and build consistency. If they thought Tillman was ready they would have brought him up by now. I would prefer to have him FULLY developed in their eyes before he comes back up.

[Matt P]

I didn't think they would put him in the bullpen. I think he could be incredible out of the pen. Let's hope he figures it out and next time he gets a start he has his confidence back and can be consistent.

[mikezpen]

Nobody on the starting staff has better stuff than he.Arrieta seems to do well and then suddenly collapse. Maybe they can find the problem as they work w/him.I wouldn't send him down,at least not now.

[CSPitt17130]

Nobody on the starting staff has better stuff than he.Arrieta seems to do well and then suddenly collapse. Maybe they can find the problem as they work w/him.I wouldn't send him down,at least not now.

Exactly. Arrieta's stuff is so good and about half of the time he's able to completely dominate. That's worth every chance he needs to figure it out.

[birdwatcher55]

Well for those who have wanted or think Arrieta is destined for the bullpen, your day has arrived. Wouldn't it be ironic if he develops into a lights out setup guy, especially with Stroop struggling of late???

[CSPitt17130]

Well for those who have wanted or think Arrieta is destined for the bullpen, your day has arrived. Wouldn't it be ironic if he develops into a lights out setup guy, especially with Stroop struggling of late???

I don't think they've given up on him as a starter yet. It's not like they're only looking to fill one spot long term. With a little more consistency, he could easily be better than every option they have in the organization now besides Bundy. I wouldn't give up on him until their only choice is lose him or move him to the pen.