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Why does Arrieta seem to get a pass?

Why does Arrieta seem to get a pass?

PostPost #1 by Matt P » May 13th, 2012, 9:38 pm

He's a guy I followed throughout the minor leagues as he was one of the top pitching prospects the O's had when I started getting into minor league baseball, prospects, etc. I was there when he beat the Yankees in his first career start and he is my favorite pitcher on the team. I am just saying this so I'm not looked at as a "hater" or anything like that.

I just don't get how he seems to get a pass for his poor pitching. When Matusz has a bad start it's as if the sky is falling. Hunter has some bad starts and he gets demoted. Eveland has a quality start and is now possibly being demoted back to Norfolk. I know that Arrieta has better stuff than any of those guys however he is just as inconsistent as they are. He often times can't control his fastball and starts to nibble. He struggles to get deep into games as well. He got a pass last year because of his injury but I think people forget he could have had it taken care off after his rookie season but he decided not to. He was named the Opening Day starter because of his "bulldog mentality" yet he really never did anything to earn being an Opening Day starter.

He's had 3 quality starts this season (none back to back) and has the second worst ERA among Orioles starters. I know ERA isn't everything but Hunter has a better ERA than him yet he is the one that now has to constantly worry about being demoted.

I'm not saying he should be demoted or that he is the worst pitcher on the team or anything like that. I just don't get why his name isn't ever brought up when people discuss disappointments, possible demotions, etc.
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Re: Why does Arrieta seem to get a pass?

PostPost #2 by DougDE » May 14th, 2012, 8:56 am

Have expressed these same thouhts to people several times, including in the stands at the game yesterday. I think sometimes his results are glossed over by some fans because he looks and speaks the part.
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Re: Why does Arrieta seem to get a pass?

PostPost #3 by Ampontan » May 14th, 2012, 9:09 am

I don't think he's getting a pass from the manager. Showalter will go easy on some guys for various reasons, but he's making it clear that this is the year for Arrieta to fish or cut bait. One thing I like now is that the combination of BS and DD are not screwing around with poor performances anywhere. (Look at Antonlli and Bergesen.) Unlike years past, I don't think they're going to have the attitude that we'll live or die by this guy.

Flanagan used to quote Weaver as saying that young pitching prospects will break your heart. I think of that sometimes in light of The Cavalry, all of whom have fallen off or have trouble staying on their horses.
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Re: Why does Arrieta seem to get a pass?

PostPost #4 by Rising O's » May 14th, 2012, 9:32 am

He's just inconsistent and the question will be whether he puts it all together. But being a young inexperienced fly ball strikeout pitcher it should be expected. He shows the flashes of being something more than a mid-back rotation starter. He actually won more games than he lost last year at a time when the team was awful. That is where the bulldog mentality comes from, somehow he won when others lost. Plus he went out and tried to perform with an injury, hard to criticize that.

You have to be encouraged by the progress in BB/K ratio.
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Re: Why does Arrieta seem to get a pass?

PostPost #5 by ofahn » May 14th, 2012, 10:19 am

Ampontan wrote:Flanagan used to quote Weaver as saying that young pitching prospects will break your heart. I think of that sometimes in light of The Cavalry, all of whom have fallen off or have trouble staying on their horses.


This winter, when I was advocating that we add more experienced starters, I got a lot arguments that doing so would block the Cavalry. I said then, and I will say now, that the mortality rate with young pitching is horrible. For every two "can't miss" prospects, one usually does.

Looking at Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz, and Britton we'll probably see one above average ML starter, one impact late reliever, one middle or long reliever, and one DFA. Which one will be which is a dart throw on the board. If the results are better than that then we should consider ourselves lucky.

Look at Jason Hammel. He was a highly touted prospect in the Rays' system five years ago. They gave up on him and traded him to Colorado where he failed miserably until late last year when he started listening to all of that advice he had been ignoring for years. He admits this and is FINALLY an effective starting pitcher at the age of twenty nine.

The DFA of Brad Bergesen is a strong message from the FO that a player will only be given so much rope. I like that approach and hope that our pitchers will respond.
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Re: Why does Arrieta seem to get a pass?

PostPost #6 by birdwatcher55 » May 14th, 2012, 11:53 am

I think he's destined to be a closer some day. Just my two cents 8-)
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Re: Why does Arrieta seem to get a pass?

PostPost #7 by Matt P » May 14th, 2012, 12:20 pm

Rising O's wrote:He's just inconsistent and the question will be whether he puts it all together. But being a young inexperienced fly ball strikeout pitcher it should be expected. He shows the flashes of being something more than a mid-back rotation starter. He actually won more games than he lost last year at a time when the team was awful. That is where the bulldog mentality comes from, somehow he won when others lost. Plus he went out and tried to perform with an injury, hard to criticize that.

You have to be encouraged by the progress in BB/K ratio.

He went 10-8 with a 5.05 ERA and I do remember at one point early in the season when he was 5-1 or something like that he had the highest run support in all of baseball. I remember this because at that time Guthrie had the lowest run support in all of baseball and MASN showed the on screen graph everytime either of them pitched early in the season. Pitchers shouldn't be judged on W/L as much as ERA, xFIP, etc.
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Re: Why does Arrieta seem to get a pass?

PostPost #8 by Matt P » May 14th, 2012, 12:23 pm

ofahn wrote:Look at Jason Hammel. He was a highly touted prospect in the Rays' system five years ago. They gave up on him and traded him to Colorado where he failed miserably until late last year when he started listening to all of that advice he had been ignoring for years. He admits this and is FINALLY an effective starting pitcher at the age of twenty nine.


Hammel in Colorado:
2009 - 4.33 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 3.76 xFIP, 3.9 WAR
2010 - 4.81 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 3.66 xFIP, 3.9 WAR
2011 - 4.76 ERA, 4.83 FIP, 4.65 xFIP, 1.0 WAR

Which season exactly did he "fail miserably"?
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Re: Why does Arrieta seem to get a pass?

PostPost #9 by ofahn » May 14th, 2012, 12:46 pm

Matt P wrote:2010 - 4.81 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 3.66 xFIP, 3.9 WAR
2011 - 4.76 ERA, 4.83 FIP, 4.65 xFIP, 1.0 WAR


If you don't consider those results, for a NL team that had a pretty good defense, to be failing then we have a difference of opinion about the definition of the word. By mid 2011 he was in their bullpen. For a starter that qualifies as failing.
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Re: Why does Arrieta seem to get a pass?

PostPost #10 by osforlife » May 14th, 2012, 2:52 pm

Not defending anybody's side or anything, just brainstroming, do you guys think one outstanding start followed but a horrible start is more better for a team than two mediocre starts? I agree though, Arrieta needs to step up. 7 runs against a poor offensive team in Tampa isn't going to cut it. I wouldn't demote him, since this is the year we're supposed to be looking at these guys over a full season.
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Re: Why does Arrieta seem to get a pass?

PostPost #11 by OriolesRedskins28 » May 14th, 2012, 3:14 pm

Arrieta frustrates me more than anything else. He has such great stuff that he can carry deep into ballgames, as evidenced by the 8 inning gem at Yankee Stadium recently, but sometimes he refuses to throw strikes. Buck is right, he's 26 he isn't a "young pitcher" anymore it's time for him to grow up and stop playing around out there. I was in disbelief when he fell behind 3-0 to the Rays catcher Jimenez the no. 8 hitter and then walked him later in the count. I can't comprehend why he goes through periods where he can't find the zone. Is it something with his delivery? He should be solving those issues NOW no more playing around.

I give him a free pass for his string of terrible starts toward the end of his season last year because of the elbow issues (elbow issues can effect command/control), but I'm not taking anymore excuses. It's time for him to grow up and throw good strikes consistently.
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Re: Why does Arrieta seem to get a pass?

PostPost #12 by Matt P » May 14th, 2012, 5:25 pm

ofahn wrote:
Matt P wrote:2010 - 4.81 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 3.66 xFIP, 3.9 WAR
2011 - 4.76 ERA, 4.83 FIP, 4.65 xFIP, 1.0 WAR


If you don't consider those results, for a NL team that had a pretty good defense, to be failing then we have a difference of opinion about the definition of the word. By mid 2011 he was in their bullpen. For a starter that qualifies as failing.

He got sent to the bullpen in August, not mid 2011. I wouldn't say he was great or anything out there but I do not think he failed miserably as you put it. He had two seasons in Colorado that were better than anything Guthrie ever did. Did Guthrie fail miserably while he was here too?
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Re: Why does Arrieta seem to get a pass?

PostPost #13 by ofahn » May 14th, 2012, 6:16 pm

Matt P wrote:I wouldn't say he was great or anything out there but I do not think he failed miserably as you put it.


...and you are certainly entitled to your opinion. Maybe we should just agree to disagree.
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Re: Why does Arrieta seem to get a pass?

PostPost #14 by Matt P » May 14th, 2012, 11:54 pm

ofahn wrote:
Matt P wrote:I wouldn't say he was great or anything out there but I do not think he failed miserably as you put it.


...and you are certainly entitled to your opinion. Maybe we should just agree to disagree.


I just want to know how 3.70 FIP, 3.66 xFIP, 3.9 WAR is "failed miserably" if you don't mind sharing.
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Re: Why does Arrieta seem to get a pass?

PostPost #15 by CSPitt17130 » May 15th, 2012, 12:03 am

Matt P wrote:I just want to know how 3.70 FIP, 3.66 xFIP, 3.9 WAR is "failed miserably" if you don't mind sharing.


Get ready for another condescending non-response.
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