Lucas Giolito and the Orioles

[Rising O's]

I've done this for the past couple of years and guessed correctly. So even though this is an almost complete shot in the dark, I believe the Orioles wil select Lucas with the #4 pick. I will put the probablity at 40%.

Unfortunately Lucas was hurt early in the year and may not pitch again until after the draft. That leaves very few updates to provide and kind of ruins the fun of all of this. But fortunately there were enough reports of him over the summer and early in his HS year to say that he was making a strong push to be the first #1 overall HS RHP selected. If you've seen video of him, you will have seen a ML body already that only needs to get stronger while refining his potential plus fastball and curveball and improving his change-up. He has a lot of things you look for in an ace, to pair with another potential ace in Dylan Bundy.

At #4 the Orioles will have the opportunity to select from a number of good college pitching prospects, all of whom will likely pitch in the majors but may never reach their potentials for various reasons. I still like a couple of those guys a lot like Gausman and Zimmer so I would be happy to have them too. The Orioles continue to watch Buxton but its looking very unlikely that he will be available.

Watch this sequence in the video of the game against velencia in Dec 2011.

http://www.perfectgame.org/players/play ... ?ID=268321

Sick...

[Rising O's]

And yes, he never watches the runner on 2nd, which is a no-no and you never know that if he did so whether it might affect his command.

[ofahn]

f you've seen video of him, you will have seen a ML body already that only needs to get stronger while refining his potential plus fastball and curveball and improving his change-up. He has a lot of things you look for in an ace, to pair with another potential ace in Dylan Bundy.

He sure sounds like a player that could become special if he was willing to listen to Brady Anderson and Rick Peterson.

[docjj]

I'd be thrilled with him as the pick.

I think we'll take Buxton. I think fist 3 picks will be Appel, Zimmer, Zunino.

[docjj]

Love his overhand curve.

[ofahn]

I think we'll take Buxton.

If you value Buxton to be about the same as Soler, we could have Buxton (in the person of Soler) AND Giolito if DD can get Angelos to spend the money.

[CSPitt17130]

If you value Buxton to be about the same as Soler, we could have Buxton (in the person of Soler) AND Giolito if DD can get Angelos to spend the money.

Why would signing Soler have an effect on who the Orioles draft? He's 19. Buxton and Giolito are 18. Soler is also most likely a corner OF, not that it matters. Draft best player available. Period. How many elite prospects ever end up being quality major league players? Now you're suggesting (hypothetically assuming they sign Soler) that a 19 year old prospect is something to bank on so they shouldn't draft someone who plays the same position (sort of)?

[ofahn]

Why would signing Soler have an effect on who the Orioles draft? He's 19. Buxton and Giotto are 18. Soler is also most likely a corner OF, not that it matters. Draft best player available. Period. How many elite prospects ever end up being quality major league players? Now you're suggesting (hypothetically assuming they sign Soler) that a 19 year old prospect is something to bank on so they shouldn't draft someone who plays the same position (sort of)?

As someone I knew used to say

You don't put up the pretty wall paper until you fix the big honking holes in the wall

IF we had multiple quality prospects at EVERY position THEN you have the luxury of choosing "the best player available".

Who even knows who that is? How do you make an objective comparison between a position player like Buxton with a SP like Giotto? Buxton might be a "once in a draft player" but, then, so might Giolito. How do you even make an objective comparison between a player like Buxton and Soler?

If we paid what it took to sign Soler then we could draft Giolito and have one of each. Why would you argue against that approach?

[CSPitt17130]

Value is value no matter what position it is in. The value can be in terms of production at the major league level or in a trade that can net a player to produce at the major league level.

For example, do you think for a second the Rangers would rather have a prospect ranked in the 50-70 overall range (still a very good prospect) instead of Profar, a consensus top 10 and overall top SS, just because they already have Andrus? Wouldn't you rather have Profar and Machado than Schoop and Machado? Drafting for need is ALWAYS a mistake. You ALWAYS draft best available.

It's up to the scouting director and the scouts to determine who that is, and in most cases, no one knows for sure who that is at draft time and no one knows how any of them will develop. You look at floor, ceiling, and risk and choose based on the best combination of those.

[OriolesRedskins28]

I think we'll take Buxton.

If you value Buxton to be about the same as Soler, we could have Buxton (in the person of Soler) AND Giolito if DD can get Angelos to spend the money.

I would LOVE that. Of course that's assuming the O's scouts have Soler's potential as being close to Buxton's, and that they have Gioloto checked out medically. I get your point though, there is no limit on international spending so why not invest in the international talent and have your top draft pick? It's like having 2 top draft picks.

I wonder where Baseball America would rank Soler in their top 50 draft prospect projections. I know they were very high on Miguel Angel Sano when he came out, boy do I wish the O's had outbid the Twins on that one...

[OriolesRedskins28]

For example, do you think for a second the Rangers would rather have a prospect ranked in the 50-70 overall range (still a very good prospect) instead of Profar, a consensus top 10 and overall top SS, just because they already have Andrus? Wouldn't you rather have Profar and Machado than Schoop and Machado? Drafting for need is ALWAYS a mistake. You ALWAYS draft best available.

.

Obviously the Rangers would prefer Profar to Schoop but there's a LARGE gap in value between the 2. In ofahn's hypothetical scenario the three players (Buxton, Giolotto, and Soler) are similar in value and potential.

[birdwatcher55]

Draft this kid at #4 and let Dr. Andrews do the rest

[CSPitt17130]

Draft this kid at #4 and let Dr. Andrews do the rest

If he has unresolved elbow issues on draft day, he's not worth the #4 pick. I do hope he shows he's healthy and I would love for the Orioles to draft him. If the Orioles think he'll need to see Dr. Andrews after they draft him, they shouldn't select him. I would only take that risk if he were a Strasburg or Harper type of talent.

[Beaker]

I think if Zimmer is available at #4 that will take him.

[Rising O's]

I don't see a reason for Giolito to hide an injury. He's got his UCLA scholarship and his stock will likely slip due to the questions anyway. With the new CBA its not like he can be overpaid by a team later in the first round.

From my understanding this injury is fairly common and is usually nothing to be too concerned about. It is possible he does have a tear that will require surgery but most likely all he needs is rehab. His upside is too good in my opinion for us to pass on at 4.