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Over or under 69.5 wins in 2012?

Over or under 69.5 wins in 2012?

PostPost #1 by Matt P » April 3rd, 2012, 12:59 am

I don't think the team is much worse than it was going into last season but I do think the rest of the AL East has gotten better. The Yankees improved their rotation, if the Red Sox stay healthy they will surely be better than last season, the Rays are the Rays, and the Blue Jays are only getting better.

All the Orioles really added this off season was "depth". None of the depth is like to have any significant impacts on the team. They went after guys offensively that know how to get on base which is good but they really didn't improve the line up at all. The starting rotation coming into the season is without it's two best pitchers from 2011 (Guthrie and Britton), and is full of questions. The bullpen looks pretty good IMO.

I do not think this team has any chance to make the playoffs or finish over .500 (which seems to be the goal for many O's fans for reasons I will never understand). I will go on the record predicting under 69.5 wins. What say you ON?
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Re: Over or under 69.5 wins in 2012?

PostPost #2 by osforlife » April 3rd, 2012, 8:26 am

73 wins. On paper, you could say we have the potential to be decent. But even with improved depth, the injury bug is still gonna kill us. Then, some players aren't going to live up to expectations, y'know the deal. The starting pitching depth dwindled very fast in ST. I thought the point of the depth was to let some of the young guys season. Now we have the worst pitcher in all of baseball last year in our major league rotation.
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Re: Over or under 69.5 wins in 2012?

PostPost #3 by Tucker Blair » April 3rd, 2012, 8:47 am

I say over, but barely. 70-72 sounds about right for me. Just marginal improvements from the rotation could get them there. Even just having a little luck or so would likely get them there.

I pretty much agree with your look at it Matt.
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Re: Over or under 69.5 wins in 2012?

PostPost #4 by CSPitt17130 » April 3rd, 2012, 8:50 am

osforlife wrote:Now we have the worst pitcher in all of baseball last year in our major league rotation.


The fact that he's in the rotation means that Showalter and Duquette think that he's not the same pitcher he was last year.

Look at the rotation depth they have this year though. Arrieta, Hunter, Hammel, Chen, Matusz, Britton, Wada, Tillman, Bergesen, Eveland (probably), Galarraga, and Berken. That's 12 guys that could start before they get to the guys last year that ended up being drastically below replacement level (Atkins, VandenHurk, Jakubauskas, and Reyes). Simply by not throwing out below replacement level starters for 10 games this year should add a few wins.
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Re: Over or under 69.5 wins in 2012?

PostPost #5 by Zach » April 3rd, 2012, 11:03 am

I feel like we are going to be slightly under our total from last year, so I will take the under. .500 ball is an unattainable for this team as it stands now, especially since we will be out of contention by the time the trade deadline comes around and will have the opportunity to dump talent. The rotation has not improved and could be argued to have gotten worse, so regardless of the offensive infusion (which is very minimal), wins are not going to be easy to come by. Moving Kevin Gregg out of the closer role might gain us a few wins, but he is still in the bullpen and we have to get to JJ for him to do anything. This is not the season that Orioles fans should get excited about. The future seems to be developing in the minors and seems to be having success. That being said, this isn't the first time we have heard that tune, so temper expectations. If they do very well this year that is great and I will be just as excited as the rest of you, but I have learned to not expect anything out of this team because it will more than likely lead to a bitter summer.
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Re: Over or under 69.5 wins in 2012?

PostPost #6 by birdwatcher55 » April 3rd, 2012, 1:39 pm

I'm going to say 73-89 8-)
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Re: Over or under 69.5 wins in 2012?

PostPost #7 by thezeroes » April 3rd, 2012, 5:50 pm

The Over will depend on the health of the competition. A loss of any two of the rotation pitchers in Boston, New York, Tampa and Toronto will have an effect on how well the Orioles do against them. How deep is the above mentioned teams depth at Starting Pitching??
With 18 Games against those in our division, for a total of 72 games, would lead me to think how their respective rosters shake out and what type of injuries they receive during the upcoming season.
Jeter and ARod are not twenty-nine and in the prime of their careers. Can Granderson and Cano repeat their :Career Years"?

Will Youkalis return to form or show his age?? Do they have an answer at Shortstop in Boston?? Can Pedroia and Ellsbury improve or will the regress to their normal carer Stats?? Is Crawford able to complete the year healthy?? Ortiz is 36 and will decline.

Tampa has the best Starting Pitching but is the Bull Pen up to the same standards that they had the last few years?? Will Pena and Scott produce or become casualties of the turf.

How much of the Young Depth that is in place for the Blue jays will produce or regress? Will their staff put up the numbers needed to survive in the East? Will Bautista regress for a year? They lived by Home Runs for a few years and those are not what makes champions unless you maintain some On Base Percentage. How will their bullpen Jell?

Every team in the East has the same questions applied to them as the Orioles. Are those teams, On Paper< better than us?? Yes But we do not play the games on Paper.
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Re: Over or under 69.5 wins in 2012?

PostPost #8 by Don » April 3rd, 2012, 10:23 pm

Anyone see the broken record skipping on the turn table? Again, It greatly depends on pitching and the most consistent pitcher is gone, and the only top arm left standing is out until at least June.

The team will live and die based on pitching at every stage. The team will be in a position to maybe maintain some damage in the case of injury. It beats the days of taking someone off the scrap heap in July and hoping that pitcher can give you 5/6 quality innings.

The jury is out on every single starter and all have question to answer.

Chen and Wada can have early success because of the lack of feel from lineups. It depends how good the two can command and control their pitching in tighter strike zones within MLB. Hammel has a sinker in his pocket that went away 5 years ago and has never returned for some reason, he can be effective when he goes heavy fastball. Hunter has the game, but something just needs to click. Arrieta has an impressive arsenal and needs to finally transition into a pitcher over a thrower. The bullpen has power arms and a few guys in AAA that could realistically step into the picture if problems arise.

You hope that Matusz and Tillman can continue that harder work ethic and maintain what they have now, in season.

There is a fighters chance, but it will come down to the wire to hit that mark.
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Re: Over or under 69.5 wins in 2012?

PostPost #9 by A_K » April 4th, 2012, 2:18 pm

Gimme the under. This team looks really bad to me. And unlike recent years where we looked really bad, there isn't much to be excited about. Lots of boring retreads and veterans with no ceiling getting a fair amount of playing time. Gah.
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Re: Over or under 69.5 wins in 2012?

PostPost #10 by DougDE » April 4th, 2012, 2:33 pm

30 yrs old and the least excited Ive ever been for an Orioles season. I may be at work for the opener and I dont even really care. The pitching looks bad, the offense looks mediocre, no real young players to get excited about. All I see that looks good is the 3 players up the middle, Wieters, Jones, and Hardy and that isnt going to carry us. I'll take the under also
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Re: Over or under 69.5 wins in 2012?

PostPost #11 by A_K » April 4th, 2012, 8:17 pm

Well, as unexcited as I am, I'm still flying to Baltimore from California to be there on opening day, so I guess I should qualify what "unexcited" means for me.
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Re: Over or under 69.5 wins in 2012?

PostPost #12 by ofahn » April 4th, 2012, 9:14 pm

A_K wrote:Well, as unexcited as I am, I'm still flying to Baltimore from California to be there on opening day, so I guess I should qualify what "unexcited" means for me.


It means your a REAL fan and have earned my respect.
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Re: Over or under 69.5 wins in 2012?

PostPost #13 by OriolesRedskins28 » April 5th, 2012, 1:09 am

Don wrote:Anyone see the broken record skipping on the turn table? Again, It greatly depends on pitching and the most consistent pitcher is gone, and the only top arm left standing is out until at least June.

The team will live and die based on pitching at every stage. The team will be in a position to maybe maintain some damage in the case of injury. It beats the days of taking someone off the scrap heap in July and hoping that pitcher can give you 5/6 quality innings.

The jury is out on every single starter and all have question to answer.

Chen and Wada can have early success because of the lack of feel from lineups. It depends how good the two can command and control their pitching in tighter strike zones within MLB. Hammel has a sinker in his pocket that went away 5 years ago and has never returned for some reason, he can be effective when he goes heavy fastball. Hunter has the game, but something just needs to click. Arrieta has an impressive arsenal and needs to finally transition into a pitcher over a thrower. The bullpen has power arms and a few guys in AAA that could realistically step into the picture if problems arise.

You hope that Matusz and Tillman can continue that harder work ethic and maintain what they have now, in season.

There is a fighters chance, but it will come down to the wire to hit that mark.


Hopefully there will be no Mitch Atkins type players on the roster at any point this year.

I'll take the over. I like the new long toss, bio-mechanical analysis, workout regimen, and mental toughness that is now preached by the instructors in the organization (Rick Peterson and Brady Anderson especially). I think at least one of the 3 of Arrieta, Matusz, and Tillman will have it all come together this year and another one of them will be 'good enough'. The increased depth of the pitching staff is crucial for both the starters and bullpen. No more Mitch Atkins or Jeremy Accardos this time around. I think the increased depth and improved development/coaching will lead this team to approach .500, whether they break that barrier is another story...
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Re: Over or under 69.5 wins in 2012?

PostPost #14 by Ampontan » April 5th, 2012, 9:08 am

They won 69 last year, right? And that was with the serious injuries, holes at DH and first, and the pitching staff imploding.

I cannot believe anyone thinks this year's team will be worse.

Barring serious, long-term injuries, I say 85 wins. Maybe 87.

I don't have the numbers at hand, but last year's pitching staff was the worst in the AL East for starters going deep into games, and that was with Guthrie. I also saw somethng to the effect that in more than 1/4 of the games and close to 1/3. the starters' ERA was something like 5.5. Last year Matusz was historically bad, Arrieta was pitching with a big bone spur, and Tillman and Bergesen weren't good at all. Reyes and Jaku got starts. Simon was his erratic self. Hunter was coming off an injury and bullpen work and thrown into the rotation.

That is very extremely unlikely to happen this year. We have legitimate options if it does, especially for the bullpen. Neshek and Phillips would have been locks last year. The offense was about league average last year. It should be a bit better this year.

The Yankees are getting old, the pitching staff doesn't look that much better, Boston is an accident waiting to happen, and apart from their stud, some people think the O's starters could be better than the Jays'.

Rather than being unexcited, I look forward to this season more so than in the past (Though I would say I was very interested rather than very excited.)

You may fire when ready, Gridleys!
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Re: Over or under 69.5 wins in 2012?

PostPost #15 by ofahn » April 5th, 2012, 9:31 am

Ampontan wrote:You may fire when ready, Gridleys!


Have you ever been to Philly to see that ship?
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