If I was the Orioles, I’d use Markakis’s deal as a general framework for an extension with Jones, but look to shave off some money and structure the tail-end similar to Alex Rios’s deal. At $11-13 million, the Orioles would be paying Jones a little bit less than market-rate if he remains at a +2.5 win level, and they would get themselves a bargain if Jones ever broke out. Of course, they would also take on some risk in case Jones regresses, but considering his sustained success at the majors thus far, he seems like a relatively safe bet.
Would this sort of a deal be attractive enough to keep Jones from pushing through to free agency? That’s impossible for us to say, but the Orioles should at least try because he likely won’t get any easier to convince going forward.
What kind of extension would you be willing to give Jones?