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Updated FIP Projections for 2012

Updated FIP Projections for 2012

PostPost #1 by Tucker Blair » February 6th, 2012, 12:01 pm

Updated FIP Projections
These are the updated Bill James' FIP projections after the Orioles traded Jeremy Guthrie for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom. Jeremy Guthrie had a projected FIP of 4.56 for 2012, so that was taken out.

Zach Britton
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 3.84
Brian Matusz
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.55
Jake Arrieta
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.79
Tommy Hunter
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.48
Chris Tillman
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.82
Brad Bergesen
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.63
Dana Eveland (only 30 Innings in 2011)
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 3.81(presumably projecting him as a reliever)
Jim Johnson
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 3.71
Pedro Strop
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 2.98
Kevin Gregg
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.48
Alfredo Simon
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.96 (looks to be projected as a starter though)
Troy Patton
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.55
Jason Berken
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.63
Jason Hammel
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.17
Matt Lindstrom
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 3.55

Updated Average Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.26
The Orioles were projected at 4.34 before this trade.


This would have been the seventh lowest FIP in 2011, only better than the Houston Astros (4.35), Cincinnati Reds (4.37), Twins (4.30), Jays (4.29) Royals (4.27), and the Dreaded Baltimore Orioles (4.67!!!!!)

So yea....The Orioles are still projected to get better, but not enough to matter!
4.26 is still lower tier, and not enough of an improvement to really matter.
The Phillies had the best FIP in the majors at 3.24!!! For anyone wondering, the Yankees had a team FIP of 3.87 (13th).

Some things to consider:

-There are no Bill James projections for the following players: Tsuyoshi Wada, Wei-Yin Chen, Darren O'day, and Zach Phillips.
-They could provide the Orioles with some much better numbers, and who knows, they could even factor into other players producing better numbers in other roles (such as a starter in the bullpen).
-The Orioles still could be looking into adding more pitching.
- Players could actually do better than their projection, or for that matter, they could do worse.

Anyways, they are just projections and nothing more. But even as projections you can see how far the Orioles really have to go or how much the young starters really need to improve for the Orioles to be a contender. Some will argue that trading Guthrie was a terrible idea. Some will say it does not matter either way. I am leaning towards the second part, although I question the move still. The Orioles may be projected better, but they are losing out on ~200 innings and that puts a lot more pressure on the young starters
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Re: Updated FIP Projections for 2012

PostPost #2 by ofahn » February 6th, 2012, 1:27 pm

I honestly believe that Zach Britton, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, and Jim Johnson will perform better than his projections. Some others, not so much.............................
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Re: Updated FIP Projections for 2012

PostPost #3 by Tucker Blair » February 6th, 2012, 3:52 pm

ofahn wrote:I honestly believe that Zach Britton, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, and Jim Johnson will perform better than his projections. Some others, not so much.............................


I think it's pretty accurate for the most part honestly. I tend to think Bill James' predictions for pitchers is usually more accurate than hitters.

I expect, Eveland and Hammel to have worse FIP's though.
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Re: Updated FIP Projections for 2012

PostPost #4 by Jordan Tuwiner » February 7th, 2012, 9:03 am

If Hammel does put up a 4.17 FIP over 170 or so innings that will give him 2-2.5 WAR, which is about what Guthrie has been worth over the years.

Tucker, did Bill James post that 4.17 number before the trade or after? If after I'd expect it to be slightly lower, too.
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Re: Updated FIP Projections for 2012

PostPost #5 by ofahn » February 7th, 2012, 9:49 am

Jordan wrote:Tucker, did Bill James post that 4.17 number before the trade or after? If after I'd expect it to be slightly lower, too.


I was thinking the same thing but I would still prefer to see Hammel have a good start and be used to acquire pieces for the future.
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Re: Updated FIP Projections for 2012

PostPost #6 by Tucker Blair » February 7th, 2012, 10:14 am

I would not know because I never checked before the trade haha.

I usually just go to fangraphs and scroll down to the bottom where their totals are. They always have everything updated.

The only other way to check his projections is to buy his handbook I believe (correct me if wrong)
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Re: Updated FIP Projections for 2012

PostPost #7 by CSPitt17130 » February 7th, 2012, 10:53 am

Jordan wrote:If Hammel does put up a 4.17 FIP over 170 or so innings that will give him 2-2.5 WAR, which is about what Guthrie has been worth over the years.

Tucker, did Bill James post that 4.17 number before the trade or after? If after I'd expect it to be slightly lower, too.


Just curious, do you prefer baseball-reference or fangraphs WAR for pitchers? The differences in those two for Guthrie and Hammel are drastic.

Guthrie 2007-2011 rWAR: 4.2, 4.6, 1.7, 4.3, 4.5

Guthrie 2007-2011 fWAR: 2.6, 2.6, 1.3, 2.4, 2.1

Hammel 2007-2011 rWAR: 0.3, 0.0, 1.8, 1.7, 3.4

Hammel 2007-2011 fWAR: 0.5, -0.2, 3.9, 3.9, 1.0
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Re: Updated FIP Projections for 2012

PostPost #8 by Jordan Tuwiner » February 7th, 2012, 10:58 am

CSPitt17130 wrote:
Jordan wrote:If Hammel does put up a 4.17 FIP over 170 or so innings that will give him 2-2.5 WAR, which is about what Guthrie has been worth over the years.

Tucker, did Bill James post that 4.17 number before the trade or after? If after I'd expect it to be slightly lower, too.


Just curious, do you prefer baseball-reference or fangraphs WAR for pitchers? The differences in those two for Guthrie and Hammel are drastic.

Guthrie 2007-2011 rWAR: 4.2, 4.6, 1.7, 4.3, 4.5

Guthrie 2007-2011 fWAR: 2.6, 2.6, 1.3, 2.4, 2.1

Hammel 2007-2011 rWAR: 0.3, 0.0, 1.8, 1.7, 3.4

Hammel 2007-2011 fWAR: 0.5, -0.2, 3.9, 3.9, 1.0

I personally prefer fWAR because I think FIP is a better indicator of talent than ERA.
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Re: Updated FIP Projections for 2012

PostPost #9 by Tucker Blair » February 7th, 2012, 11:00 am

Jordan wrote:
CSPitt17130 wrote:
Jordan wrote:If Hammel does put up a 4.17 FIP over 170 or so innings that will give him 2-2.5 WAR, which is about what Guthrie has been worth over the years.

Tucker, did Bill James post that 4.17 number before the trade or after? If after I'd expect it to be slightly lower, too.


Just curious, do you prefer baseball-reference or fangraphs WAR for pitchers? The differences in those two for Guthrie and Hammel are drastic.

Guthrie 2007-2011 rWAR: 4.2, 4.6, 1.7, 4.3, 4.5

Guthrie 2007-2011 fWAR: 2.6, 2.6, 1.3, 2.4, 2.1

Hammel 2007-2011 rWAR: 0.3, 0.0, 1.8, 1.7, 3.4

Hammel 2007-2011 fWAR: 0.5, -0.2, 3.9, 3.9, 1.0

I personally prefer fWAR because I think FIP is a better indicator of talent than ERA.


Same. I agree.
I usually use fangraphs for pretty much everything unless I need splits, I like baseball reference for that more.
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Re: Updated FIP Projections for 2012

PostPost #10 by Jordan Tuwiner » February 7th, 2012, 11:10 am

Jordan wrote:
CSPitt17130 wrote:
Jordan wrote:If Hammel does put up a 4.17 FIP over 170 or so innings that will give him 2-2.5 WAR, which is about what Guthrie has been worth over the years.

Tucker, did Bill James post that 4.17 number before the trade or after? If after I'd expect it to be slightly lower, too.


Just curious, do you prefer baseball-reference or fangraphs WAR for pitchers? The differences in those two for Guthrie and Hammel are drastic.

Guthrie 2007-2011 rWAR: 4.2, 4.6, 1.7, 4.3, 4.5

Guthrie 2007-2011 fWAR: 2.6, 2.6, 1.3, 2.4, 2.1

Hammel 2007-2011 rWAR: 0.3, 0.0, 1.8, 1.7, 3.4

Hammel 2007-2011 fWAR: 0.5, -0.2, 3.9, 3.9, 1.0

I personally prefer fWAR because I think FIP is a better indicator of talent than ERA.

To clarify, BR uses ERA for WAR and FanGraphs uses FIP.
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Re: Updated FIP Projections for 2012

PostPost #11 by Tucker Blair » February 11th, 2012, 2:46 pm

Added Luis Ayala and Pat Neshek
and made it look pretty haha
Image
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