Would You Trade Adam Jones For …….?

[Matt P]

While I agree his comments were off base you still haven't responded to my request.

[ofahn]

While I agree his comments were off base you still haven't responded to my request.

I believe I have. Please go back and CAREFULLY read the thread again. I have patiently explained in detail why I think that anything but a major rebuild would just make the situation worse. If you feel that doesn't address your question, please rephrase it.

[Matt P]

Why is the last half of my last post gone?

[Matt P]

While I agree his comments were off base you still haven't responded to my request.

I believe I have. Please go back and CAREFULLY read the thread again. I have patiently explained in detail why I think that anything but a major rebuild would just make the situation worse. If you feel that doesn't address your question, please rephrase it.

This was his post that I asked you to explain what was so wrong.

Markakis is not a good #3 option on most good teams; Wieters would be a better option in the three hole; and when it comes to the #4 cleanup slot we have no option really. It's a black hole. As for Reimold, it's still debatable whether he is a full time Major League starter. If you want a guy who will lend support and make everyone more lethal and change the dynamics of your lineup then you sign a legitimate cleanup hitter. That is something this organization has lacked in years. As for Palmer, you overstate the obvious: good pitchers became great with solid defense behind them. If you are trying to give us a lesson in baseball intelligence, I think you come up a little bit short when comparing those great Orioles' teams to this current cast of misfits

Also, in my last post I asked how asking someone to stop acting like a child proves one as "intellectually bankrupt" but posting "SIGH!!! Shaking head. SIGH!!!" does not. Somehow it's mysteriously missing.

[birdwatcher55]

I love this banter

[TuckerBlair89]

Ken_Rosenthal Sources: Talks between #Orioles, #Braves over A. Jones are "nowhere." Braves will not trade one of top four young SPs for Jones. MORE #MLB

Ken_Rosenthal Taking Jurrjens, Prado makes no sense for #Orioles unless they can get one of those four. Talks fluid, but no current momentum. #Braves #MLB

Rosenthal reiterating what most people on the Orioles side are thinking.

[birdwatcher55]

Ken_Rosenthal Sources: Talks between #Orioles, #Braves over A. Jones are "nowhere." Braves will not trade one of top four young SPs for Jones. MORE #MLB

Ken_Rosenthal Taking Jurrjens, Prado makes no sense for #Orioles unless they can get one of those four. Talks fluid, but no current momentum. #Braves #MLB

Rosenthal reiterating what most people on the Orioles side are thinking.

I would hope to hell that we don't trade AJ and not get back at least "one of those four". In fact, I would be looking for two

[TuckerBlair89]

Ken_Rosenthal Sources: Talks between #Orioles, #Braves over A. Jones are "nowhere." Braves will not trade one of top four young SPs for Jones. MORE #MLB

Ken_Rosenthal Taking Jurrjens, Prado makes no sense for #Orioles unless they can get one of those four. Talks fluid, but no current momentum. #Braves #MLB

Rosenthal reiterating what most people on the Orioles side are thinking.

I would hope to hell that we don't trade AJ and not get back at least "one of those four". In fact, I would be looking for two

It literally makes zero sense to do any trade not bringing back prospects.
The only thing I would settle for is if we traded for Jurrjens, Prado, and 1 prospect.

But primarily the Orioles either need:
-2 of their 4 pitching prospects
-Prado, Jurrjens, and 2 prospects

[ofahn]

The only thing I would settle for is if we traded for Jurrjens, Prado, and 1 prospect.

The only reason to take Jurrjens in any deal would be to flip him. And you have to wonder why Atlanta would be so aggressive about trading young pitching. It can't be to add prospects because Jones has the same number of control years left.

If the Braves trade Jurrjens they have a hole in their rotation so they would be reluctant to give up two of their three ML ready pitching prospects. They are looking at starting the season with Martin Prado as their LF and a rookie, Tyler Pastornicky, as their SS. Maybe the two teams should expand the talks to include Jones, Hardy and Guthrie for Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, SS Pastornicky, 3B Brandon Drury, Jurrjens, and one of following group - LHP Sean Gilmartin or RHP J.R. Graham or RHP Zeke Spruill or RHP Navery Moore or LHP Carlos Perez.

The Braves get the two bats they need and a pitcher to replace Jurrjens. They also get to keep one of their top pitching prospects. The Orioles get three prospects that should be ready for 2013 and a prospect that could join the team in 2014 and 2015. They could then trade Jurrjens now for another prospect or hold on to him until July 31st.

There's no question that this would gut the 2012 team but we weren't going to be a playoff team this year anyway. The 40M in salary coming off of the books could be used for international talent before the limit goes into effect.

[osforlife]

I would trade Adam Jones for Brandon Beachy straight up. I love AJ to death but I think everybody agrees he is over-rated. He is average in center field and did not deserve that gold glove. Sure, he makes some flashy plays out there, but often messes up on the routine ones. He strikeouts too much and doesn't get on base enough. When he does get on base he doesn't use his speed to his advantages as he is basically not a threat to steal. We will probably not be able to hold on to him once he becomes a free agent so we might as well trade him while his value is very high. Adam has all the make-up to become a star but hasn't become one yet and I every doubt he will until he gets the mental part of the game dow first. Beachy, on the other hand, is cost effective and under team control until 2017. He has already proved he can succeed at the ML level unlike Minor or Delgado or Teheran. Delgado is ready to step up to the Braves rotation so they can AFFORD to part with one even if they don't DESIRE to. Either or, I want the Jones situation to be delt with THIS OFFSEASON. Either trade him, or sign him long term now.

[TuckerBlair89]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... d-product/

Adam Jones, Unfinished Product

by Dave Cameron - January 6, 2012

In the weekly Wednesday chat, one of the popular subjects was the Braves pursuit of Baltimore outfielder Adam Jones. According to reports, the Braves have been trying to land Jones for the better part of a few months, using Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado as the bait, while the Orioles demand a lot more in return for their center fielder. A segment of Braves fans seem to be offended by the asking price for Jones, believing that the Orioles demands for a guy with a .319 OBP is unwarranted.

But, here’s the thing with trading for a guy like Adam Jones – you aren’t paying for what he has been, you’re paying for what he could be.

The 2008-2011 version of Adam Jones has been a slightly above average player, not the star he was projected to be as a prospect. As has been noted by Atlanta fans many times, his low on base percentage has held him back from being an offensive force, and he’s shown few signs of improving his plate discipline to date. Additionally, UZR hasn’t exactly loved his defense in center field, so he’s topped out at +2.9 WAR in his best season to date.

If that’s all Adam Jones was, then Braves fans would be right that Baltimore was asking too much for his final two years of team control. However, the Orioles see potential for significant improvement from their center fielder, and history backs up their point of view.

To show this general skillset’s potential, I grabbed a list of all player seasons from the last 10 years where the hitter was 25 or younger, swung at 50% or more of the pitches they were thrown, and posted an ISO of at least .150 (to eliminate the middle infielders and catchers who are simply in the sport for their glovework). This group is essentially a collection of athletic players who got to the show based on their physical skills, but showed a significant lack of polish early in their career.

Including Jones, there were 30 names on the list. Two of the players on the list were rookies last year (Mark Trumbo and Freddie Freeman) and two more are still about the same age as Jones (Delmon Young and Brennan Boesch) so they don’t really help us understand how players perform in the future after showing this kind of skillset early in their career. So, throwing them out, that leaves us with 25 hitters with roughly comparable offensive skillsets. Here’s how they break down.

Future stars:

Miguel Cabrera
Ryan Braun
Robinson Cano
Adrian Beltre
Carlos Gonzalez
Matt Kemp
Brandon Phillips
Carl Crawford
Matt Holliday

Quality Regulars:

Aramis Ramirez
Justin Morneau
Vernon Wells
Pablo Sandoval
Corey Hart
Hunter Pence

Decent Role Players:

Juan Uribe
Jeff Francoeur
Jay Gibbons
Joe Crede

Busts:

Jorge Cantu
Mike Jacobs
Angel Berroa
Jose Lopez
Corey Patterson
Kevin Kouzmanoff

Of the 25, 15 developed into All-Star caliber players, producing far more value than they had shown during their raw, early career performances. It’s probably fair to say that Jones isn’t likely to turn into a Miguel Cabrera or a Ryan Braun, as they’re not really great comparisons for his overall package of skills, but it is worth noting that both of them were aggressive hitters who chased a lot of pitches early in their careers.

Of the guys who do fit a more similar profile to Jones in terms of athletic ability and undisciplined approach at the plate at a young age – the best overall comparisons for Jones – we see Cano, Crawford, Beltre, Gonzalez, Kemp, Phillips, Ramirez, Wells, Hart, Pence, Francoeur, and Patterson. You’ll note a really high success rate among those players, with only the latter two having failed to develop into fairly consistent quality regulars.

Guys who become regulars in their early-20s due to their athleticism often lag behind when getting judged by their on base percentage. However, their broad base of skills allow them to be useful players while still developing, and with more experience, their overall performances improve, sometimes dramatically.

When the Orioles look at Adam Jones, they’re not looking at a +2 to +3 win guy with a low OBP who needs work judging balls off the bat – they’re looking at a guy with the potential to become a premium player at an up-the-middle position. And if they’re going to give up that potential, they’re going to need to get some serious upside in return.

Unfortunately for the Braves, Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado aren’t exactly upside plays. They’re both useful pieces who could help a contender by filling in a gap here or there, but neither offer the hope of becoming much more than what they already are. They’re finished products, or something close to it at least. Jones is an untapped well whose performances up to this point show a glimmer of what he could become if he continues to develop.

Given the Orioles present circumstances, that’s exactly the kind of player they need. Two useful players with limited potential aren’t going to make them winners. They need stars to build around, and while Jones isn’t one yet, he very well could become one. If the Orioles are going to part with not only his present value but the hope of what he could become, a potential buyer will need to compensate them for surrendering that unrealized potential.

You can’t judge Adam Jones’ value to the Orioles by what he’s been to date. His value is from what he could be, and what he could be is worth a lot more than Martin Prado and Jair Jurrjens.

Excellent article. And What Braves fan that I have talked to fail to realize.

[birdwatcher55]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/adam-jones-unfinished-product/

Adam Jones, Unfinished Product

by Dave Cameron - January 6, 2012

In the weekly Wednesday chat, one of the popular subjects was the Braves pursuit of Baltimore outfielder Adam Jones. According to reports, the Braves have been trying to land Jones for the better part of a few months, using Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado as the bait, while the Orioles demand a lot more in return for their center fielder. A segment of Braves fans seem to be offended by the asking price for Jones, believing that the Orioles demands for a guy with a .319 OBP is unwarranted.

But, here’s the thing with trading for a guy like Adam Jones – you aren’t paying for what he has been, you’re paying for what he could be.

The 2008-2011 version of Adam Jones has been a slightly above average player, not the star he was projected to be as a prospect. As has been noted by Atlanta fans many times, his low on base percentage has held him back from being an offensive force, and he’s shown few signs of improving his plate discipline to date. Additionally, UZR hasn’t exactly loved his defense in center field, so he’s topped out at +2.9 WAR in his best season to date.

If that’s all Adam Jones was, then Braves fans would be right that Baltimore was asking too much for his final two years of team control. However, the Orioles see potential for significant improvement from their center fielder, and history backs up their point of view.

To show this general skillset’s potential, I grabbed a list of all player seasons from the last 10 years where the hitter was 25 or younger, swung at 50% or more of the pitches they were thrown, and posted an ISO of at least .150 (to eliminate the middle infielders and catchers who are simply in the sport for their glovework). This group is essentially a collection of athletic players who got to the show based on their physical skills, but showed a significant lack of polish early in their career.

Including Jones, there were 30 names on the list. Two of the players on the list were rookies last year (Mark Trumbo and Freddie Freeman) and two more are still about the same age as Jones (Delmon Young and Brennan Boesch) so they don’t really help us understand how players perform in the future after showing this kind of skillset early in their career. So, throwing them out, that leaves us with 25 hitters with roughly comparable offensive skillsets. Here’s how they break down.

Future stars:

Miguel Cabrera
Ryan Braun
Robinson Cano
Adrian Beltre
Carlos Gonzalez
Matt Kemp
Brandon Phillips
Carl Crawford
Matt Holliday

Quality Regulars:

Aramis Ramirez
Justin Morneau
Vernon Wells
Pablo Sandoval
Corey Hart
Hunter Pence

Decent Role Players:

Juan Uribe
Jeff Francoeur
Jay Gibbons
Joe Crede

Busts:

Jorge Cantu
Mike Jacobs
Angel Berroa
Jose Lopez
Corey Patterson
Kevin Kouzmanoff

Of the 25, 15 developed into All-Star caliber players, producing far more value than they had shown during their raw, early career performances. It’s probably fair to say that Jones isn’t likely to turn into a Miguel Cabrera or a Ryan Braun, as they’re not really great comparisons for his overall package of skills, but it is worth noting that both of them were aggressive hitters who chased a lot of pitches early in their careers.

Of the guys who do fit a more similar profile to Jones in terms of athletic ability and undisciplined approach at the plate at a young age – the best overall comparisons for Jones – we see Cano, Crawford, Beltre, Gonzalez, Kemp, Phillips, Ramirez, Wells, Hart, Pence, Francoeur, and Patterson. You’ll note a really high success rate among those players, with only the latter two having failed to develop into fairly consistent quality regulars.

Guys who become regulars in their early-20s due to their athleticism often lag behind when getting judged by their on base percentage. However, their broad base of skills allow them to be useful players while still developing, and with more experience, their overall performances improve, sometimes dramatically.

When the Orioles look at Adam Jones, they’re not looking at a +2 to +3 win guy with a low OBP who needs work judging balls off the bat – they’re looking at a guy with the potential to become a premium player at an up-the-middle position. And if they’re going to give up that potential, they’re going to need to get some serious upside in return.

Unfortunately for the Braves, Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado aren’t exactly upside plays. They’re both useful pieces who could help a contender by filling in a gap here or there, but neither offer the hope of becoming much more than what they already are. They’re finished products, or something close to it at least. Jones is an untapped well whose performances up to this point show a glimmer of what he could become if he continues to develop.

Given the Orioles present circumstances, that’s exactly the kind of player they need. Two useful players with limited potential aren’t going to make them winners. They need stars to build around, and while Jones isn’t one yet, he very well could become one. If the Orioles are going to part with not only his present value but the hope of what he could become, a potential buyer will need to compensate them for surrendering that unrealized potential.

You can’t judge Adam Jones’ value to the Orioles by what he’s been to date. His value is from what he could be, and what he could be is worth a lot more than Martin Prado and Jair Jurrjens.

Excellent article. And What Braves fan that I have talked to fail to realize.

The one positive I see here is that we have alerted MLB that Jones can be moved for the right offer. Let's see who steps up. Right now I would not move him to Atlanta unless we are significantly blown away by an offer - and I'm talking JJ, Prado and at least two high end prospects

[ofahn]

Spring Training will be very interesting. If baseball adds an extra wildcard team this year and organizations like the Nats, Braves, Marlins, and Giants see everything coming together and think they might just be one player away we might see trade rumors start all over again.

[ofahn]

Now that Mike Cameron has decided to retire the Nats have a BIG hole in CF. It could get interesting.

[osforlife]

Now that Mike Cameron has decided to retire the Nats have a BIG hole in CF. It could get interesting.

Good point. I could see a few trade rumors throughout ST, but in the end, I think the Nats will end up having Ankiel or Bernandina patrol CF until Harper gets called up.