What Does Baseball America's 2012 Orioles' Prospect List Tell Us?

[Matt P]

He didn't need another 2M to draft and sign Leake or Minor.

And you know this because.................

I already posted how much they signed for.

[ofahn]

He didn't need another 2M to draft and sign Leake or Minor.

And you know this because.................

I already posted how much they signed for.

Perhaps you should read what I posted again.

[Matt P]

All you did was post rumors while I have posted facts.

[ofahn]

All you did was post rumors while I have posted facts.

Perhaps you should read what I posted again.

[ofahn]

Baseball America has published their list of the top thirty Orioles' prospects. You will notice that there are actually thirty one. I don't know why.

What struck me about this list is that we have two of the best prospects in the game, DYLAN Bundy and Machado. In fact, they are listed in the top ten on the MLB top 100 prospect list http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/index.jsp. There's no question that's a GOOD thing. However, what concerns me is the lack of depth of those prospects. We only have TWO prospects on MLB's entire top 100 list. Just TWO out of 100! The math alone says we should have at least three (100 divided by 30 teams is 3.333).

The two players we do have on the list are both extremely high draft choices and should be on the list. After that...........? Looking at the names on the list from Number 3 down I see players that we, as fans, have a lot of hope for but very few players that the talent evaluators see as "can't miss".

Of our top eight, three have never played a professional inning. Number 7 is a Rule 5 Draft selection. Numbers 14, 24, and 25 are the power of the bunch but have such poor plate discipline you wonder if they will ever wear a ML uniform. Numbers 10, 12, 15, 24, and 27 have had serious injury issues that have affected their development. Number 28 can't find home plate with a GPS device and Number 29 has been released.

I say this not as one big complaint (well, maybe a little) but as a show of concern about the DEPTH of the talent in this organization. There really isn't any. BA's Jim Callis suggests that having two top ten prospects might be better than a lot of quality prospects without any real studs. What this organization NEEDS to have is a farm system that places two prospects in the top ten list AND another FOUR or FIVE between 11 and 100. I had hoped that we would trade the right pieces this winter to add those four or five but it hasn't happened so far, and probably won't now. We have added a young and highly respected Taiwanese pitcher, Chen. Other than that................? Maybe we will make the investment into Cespedes and Soler as well as some of the young Cuban pitchers that are available this winter.

If that doesn't happen then we need to place all of our hopes into an improved development program. Maybe they can actually turn some of the raw talent in this organization into legitimate prospects.

1. Dylan Bundy, RHP
2. Manny Machado, SS
3. Jonathan Schoop, INF
4. Parker Bridwell, RHP
5. LJ Hoes, INF/OF
6. Nicky Delmonico, 3B/1B
7. Ryan Flaherty, INF
8. Jason Esposito, 3B
9. Xavier Avery, OF
10. Dan Klein, RHP
11. Mike Wright, RHP
12. Clay Schrader, RHP
13. Joe Mahoney, 1B
14 Aaron Baker, 1B
15. Ryan Berry, RHP
16. Matt Angle, OF
17. Bobby Bundy, RHP
18. Kyle Simon, RHP
19. Glynn Davis, OF
20. Tim Berry, LHP
21. Gabriel Lino, C
22. Roderick Bernadina, OF
23. Ryan Adams, 2B
24. Tyler Townsend, 1B
25. Brandon Waring, 3B/1B
26. Oliver Drake, RHP
27. Trent Mummey, OF
28. Wynn Pelzer, RHP
29. Kyle Hudson, OF
30. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP
31. Zach Davies, RHP

[thezeroes]

If you are following the Orioles this off-season then you know that most of the feeder roots (Minors) has seen an influx of evaluators/coaches/trainers. The following is from Steve Melewski Masn blog and should instill a little hope that somebody final has seen a problem within the MiLB structure and is trying to fix it.

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewsk ... coach.html

[ofahn]

If you are following the Orioles this off-season then you know that most of the feeder roots (Minors) has seen an influx of evaluators/coaches/trainers. The following is from Steve Melewski Masn blog and should instill a little hope that somebody final has seen a problem within the MiLB structure and is trying to fix it.

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewsk ... coach.html

They haven't increased the number of coaches at each level but they have doubled the number of roving instructors. In some ways that a good thing because those rovers will be able to work with these kids all the way through the system.

[osforlife]

I'm suprised Ryan Adams got as low as he did on the top 30. He was..what number 4 last year? Has he done anything to hurt that status? He doesn't play very good defense, but he's got a legit bat. Same with Townsend, injury problems, but has a legit bat.

[ofahn]

I'm suprised Ryan Adams got as low as he did on the top 30. He was..what number 4 last year? Has he done anything to hurt that status? He doesn't play very good defense, but he's got a legit bat. Same with Townsend, injury problems, but has a legit bat.

I would assume two issues are at play here. The first is that we have added SOME talent to the organization which would have caused other players to drop in the rankings. Second, dropping that many places may have to do with a bias concerning his inability to play at least a league average defense. I have no idea how Adams spent his winter but if he wasn't getting blisters practicing his fielding he deserves a trip back to AAA.

[osforlife]

I'm suprised Ryan Adams got as low as he did on the top 30. He was..what number 4 last year? Has he done anything to hurt that status? He doesn't play very good defense, but he's got a legit bat. Same with Townsend, injury problems, but has a legit bat.

I would assume two issues are at play here. The first is that we have added SOME talent to the organization which would have caused other players to drop in the rankings. Second, dropping that many places may have to do with a bias concerning his inability to play at least a league average defense. I have no idea how Adams spent his winter but if he wasn't getting blisters practicing his fielding he deserves a trip back to AAA.

Yes I agree, but its not like nobody knew he didn't play good defense. Plus he's improved every year. And he even hit good at the big league club. I agree that he needs another trip to Norfolk but if he keeps improving on the defense and cuts down the strikeouts, I don't see any reason why he can't be the second basemen of the future.

[ofahn]

I don't see any reason why he can't be the second basemen of the future.

Or at least the 2B of the NEAR future. If Jonathon Schoop sticks at 2B we might see him competing for that job in the Spring of 2014.

[osforlife]

I don't see any reason why he can't be the second basemen of the future.

Or at least the 2B of the NEAR future. If Jonathon Schoop sticks at 2B we might see him competing for that job in the Spring of 2014.

Couldn't have said it any better myself.

[ofahn]

It will be interesting to see the 2013 version of list list with some international signings, a good draft, and some proper development. I'm optimistic that we'll have five or six players in the BA top 100 list and be rated in the top seven or eight farm systems. We'll NEED that if we're going to build a winner starting in 2014.

[Ampontan]

Don't mean to belittle the effort it took to input this, but I often ignore these lists. These sort of predictions are impossible, too subjective. The people writing them can get caught up in hype, too.

For example, I've read that some people in the Orioles organization think Schoop can be as good as, if not better than, Machado, but he's not in the Hot 100. Some people in the organization think Tim Berry has more potential as a pitcher than Ryan Berry. One nameless scout last year saw Rodriquez in the GCL and said, if he doesn't get hurt, he'll wind up in the majors. And he's below Kyle Hudson, an outfielder who's never hit a professional home run? Esquivel didn't make the list, and a lot of people like him. A lot of people like David Baker, too, and he's not there either. Does Waring have a better chance at sniffing the majors than those two?

How much of this list is a result of the writers and the people they talked too thinking, ahhh, it's the Orioles, this guy can't be that good --- even though a less subjective person would think he might be?