Orioles FIP Projections for 2012

[TuckerBlair89]

Clearly a very flawed look into the projection of next years staff, but it's fun to look into the crystal ball every once in a while.

Zach Britton
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 3.84
Jeremy Guthrie
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.56
Brian Matusz
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.55
Jake Arrieta
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.79
Tommy Hunter
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.48
Chris Tillman
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.82
Brad Bergesen
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.63
Dana Eveland (only 30 Innings in 2011)
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 3.81(presumably projecting him as a reliever)
Jim Johnson
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 3.71
Pedro Strop
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 2.98
Kevin Gregg
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.48
Alfredo Simon
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.96 (looks to be projected as a starter though)
Troy Patton
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.55
Jason Berken
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.63

Average Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.34
This would have been the fourth lowest FIP in 2011, only better than the Houston Astros (4.35), Cincinnati Reds (4.37), and the Dreaded Baltimore Orioles (4.67!!!!!)
So yea....The Orioles are projected to get better, but not enough to matter!
4.34 is a terrible number still. The Phillies had the best FIP in the majors at 3.24!!! For anyone wondering, the Yankees had a team FIP of 3.87 (13th).

Some things to consider:

-There are no Bill James projections for the following players: Tsuyoshi Wada, Wei-Yin Chen, Darren O'day, Zach Phillips, and Clay Rapada.
-They could provide the Orioles with some much better numbers, and who knows, they could even factor into other players producing better numbers in other roles (such as a starter in the bullpen).
-The Orioles still could be looking into adding more pitching.
- Players could actually do better than their projection, or for that matter, they could do worse.

Anyways, they are just projections and nothing more. But even as projections you can see how far the Orioles really have to go or how much the young starters really need to improve for the Orioles to be a contender

[ofahn]

It's tough to predict young pitchers because they often suddenly "get it" and they improve dramatically as their talent is no longer restrained by their ignorance. This is clearly a development issue. Something we haven't excelled in for a LOOONNNNGGGG time.

In fact, I think the last impact pitcher we developed in our farm system that reached his full potential in the majors was Mike Mussina.

[TuckerBlair89]

It's tough to predict young pitchers because they often suddenly "get it" and they improve dramatically as their talent is no longer restrained by their ignorance. This is clearly a development issue. Something we haven't excelled in for a LOOONNNNGGGG time.

In fact, I think the last impact pitcher we developed in our farm system that reached his full potential in the majors was Mike Mussina.

Certainly tough, and projections can be considered a moot point at times. I would argue that Bedard reached his full potential. He was one of the most dominant pitchers in the league when we traded him. Of course injuries derailed his career.

[ofahn]

I would argue that Bedard reached his full potential. He was one of the most dominant pitchers in the league when we traded him.

The reason I didn't consider Bedard was that he was a six inning pitcher. IMO he should have never been allowed to reach the majors without being taught how to finish a game. His stuff was a 20 game winner. His heart wasn't. To me that's another developmental failure.

[Zach]

While I agree that projections are a very inexact science two stuck out to me. Britton was given a significantly lower projection than any other starter and Strop had the lowest on the team. If these turn out to be accurate that is slightly reassuring about the direction of this organization

[TuckerBlair89]

While I agree that projections are a very inexact science two stuck out to me. Britton was given a significantly lower projection than any other starter and Strop had the lowest on the team. If these turn out to be accurate that is slightly reassuring about the direction of this organization

I thought the same. I posted on twitter about how excited I am to see Strop pitch this season. I really think he could become a dominant setup man for us. In the past we have only had JJ as that option with guys like Simon and Hernandez as close but not quite there.
Oh and

[ofahn]

Maybe this team will raise itself up by its boot STROP.

Thank you, thank you, you're too kind. I'll be here all week. Don't forget to tip your server.

[CSPitt17130]

The reason I didn't consider Bedard was that he was a six inning pitcher. IMO he should have never been allowed to reach the majors without being taught how to finish a game. His stuff was a 20 game winner. His heart wasn't. To me that's another developmental failure.

He was striking out 11 guys per 9 innings and still managed to average 6.5 innings per start. He led the league in xFIP and K/9 the year before he was traded. How good would the Orioles staff be if all of their pitching prospects had failed developments like that? If Bedard wasn't/isn't passionate about baseball, no one can make him change how he feels about it.

[ofahn]

The reason I didn't consider Bedard was that he was a six inning pitcher. IMO he should have never been allowed to reach the majors without being taught how to finish a game. His stuff was a 20 game winner. His heart wasn't. To me that's another developmental failure.

He was striking out 11 guys per 9 innings and still managed to average 6.5 innings per start. He led the league in xFIP and K/9 the year before he was traded. How good would the Orioles staff be if all of their pitching prospects had failed developments like that? If Bedard wasn't/isn't passionate about baseball, no one can make him change how he feels about it.

The point I was trying to make is that he DID NOT LIVE UP TO HIS POTENTIAL. You can argue that a lack of heart was a scouting failure but we have these kids for between three and four years in our farm system. That is more than enough time to explain that the acceptable standard is that they do everything within their power to help the team, and if they have a problem with that then their arrival in the majors will be a year or two longer than they were expecting.

I don't see any player as more important than the organization. Let's suppose, for argument's sake, that Manny Machado decided that his talent did require him to hustle on ground balls or advance a runner by hitting to the right side of the infield. If I were running the system I would have the coaches talk with him as much as necessary until he saw the light. If that didn't work I would bring in an outsider or two that he might listen too. If that didn't work I would make him play an extra year at AA and then at AAA until he got the message. If all of that failed then I would trade him. HE WOULD NEVER PLAY A ML GAME FOR ME UNLESS HE WAS GIVING ME HIS VERY BEST ON EVERY PLAY.

The problem with Bedard was that we have had so few real prospects in our system the last 15 years that the management at the time was willing to overlook character flaws or development deficiencies so they could present the facade to Angelos that they were actually accomplishing something. Think of it as an Enron accounting trick. THAT NEEDS TO STOP. IMO Duquette is sending that message to our young pitchers by bringing in so many potential starters. Prepare properly and play right or get used to living in Norfolk.

[CSPitt17130]

The point I was trying to make is that he DID NOT LIVE UP TO HIS POTENTIAL. You can argue that a lack of heart was a scouting failure but we have these kids for between three and four years in our farm system. That is more than enough time to explain that the acceptable standard is that they do everything within their power to help the team, and if they have a problem with that then their arrival in the majors will be a year or two longer than they were expecting.

I don't see any player as more important than the organization. Let's suppose, for argument's sake, that Manny Machado decided that his talent did require him to hustle on ground balls or advance a runner by hitting to the right side of the infield. If I were running the system I would have the coaches talk with him as much as necessary until he saw the light. If that didn't work I would bring in an outsider or two that he might listen too. If that didn't work I would make him play an extra year at AA and then at AAA until he got the message. If all of that failed then I would trade him. HE WOULD NEVER PLAY A ML GAME FOR ME UNLESS HE WAS GIVING ME HIS VERY BEST ON EVERY PLAY.

How do you know Bedard wasn't working as hard as he could or that he wasn't giving his all, regardless of how passionate he was? I find it hard to believe that you think he DIDN'T LIVE UP TO HIS POTENTIAL when he was striking out 11 per 9 IP. You're making so many assumptions about Bedard's character and work ethic all based off the fact that he only threw 196 and 182 innings in 2006 and 2007. Am I missing something?

[ofahn]

Am I missing something?

If that's a sincere statement - yes.

[CSPitt17130]

Am I missing something?

If that's a sincere statement - yes.

Then what?

[TuckerBlair89]

Two more things that strike me:

Eveland most likely doesn't pitch to a 3.81 FIP
Simon most likely pitches much better than a 4.96 FIP (in the bullpen where he belongs).

I assume that both of their FIP falls in the mid 4's or maybe lower for Simon. It probably doesn't change the team FIP much, but just something that I would assume happens

[Zach]

Another name that isn't on here (since he was signed yesterday) but would be interesting to see where he would fit into these projections is Armando Galarraga. If he can return to the form that got him a (almost) perfect game he could be a decent addition. However, he finished the season horribly in AAA. We only signed him to a minor league contract reducing our risk.

[ofahn]

If we can't come up with five quality starting pitchers it's not because DD hasn't tried.