What Does Baseball America's 2012 Orioles' Prospect List Tell Us?

[CSPitt17130]

I don't think anyone is questioning that Dylan Bundy is a legitimate prospect, but that's what he is - a prospect that has never thrown a professional pitch. You would have to be very optimistic to see him becoming a difference maker in Baltimore any time before 2014. The fact that he's one of the two best prospects in our system and the other guy, Machado, should arrive around the same time means this team will not have much support coming from the farm for a while.

I understand what a prospect is. I couldn't tell who I was responding to in my last post, but the poster said Bundy "can't be judged a top prospect" until he proves himself. I was disagreeing with that poster's sentiment that he cannot be a top prospect yet. I think Bundy has shown enough to warrant top prospect status and I challenge anyone to find a reputable scout or prospect expert saying he isn't. Even those tempering expectations because he is young and hasn't pitched professionally would still put him in the elite prospect category.

[bird's fan]

Throwing 100 mph doesn't make him a pitcher but everything else I mentioned about him does: 4 pitches, repeatable delivery, good command, etc. He's already shown that he has tremendous work ethic and has it together mentally. Maybe your definition of prospect is different than those of the people who do this professionally. None of them would say that Dylan isn't a top prospect.

I don't think anyone is questioning that Dylan Bundy is a legitimate prospect, but that's what he is - a prospect that has never thrown a professional pitch. You would have to be very optimistic to see him becoming a difference maker in Baltimore any time before 2014. The fact that he's one of the two best prospects in our system and the other guy, Machado, should arrive around the same time means this team will not have much support coming from the farm for a while.

I agree he could be a prospect but given our scouts track record on evaluating players I need to see him under fire. It doesn't take a scout, professional, to look at our picthing staff, big team, and see that someone was very wrong in their evaluations. I'm a fan and I hope Bundy is legit but I need to see how he progresses.

[CSPitt17130]

I agree he could be a prospect

Bundy IS a prospect NOW, and he is an elite one. Again, if you don't think that Bundy can even be considered a prospect yet, you're disagreeing with every informed, professional or otherwise, expert on scouting and prospect evaluation.

It doesn't take a scout, professional, to look at our picthing staff, big team, and see that someone was very wrong in their evaluations. I'm a fan and I hope Bundy is legit but I need to see how he progresses.

Can you elaborate here? Who was wrong in their evaluations and what evaluations are you talking about? Britton and Arrieta have pitched well within their floor-to-ceiling expectations. Maybe Tillman has pitched closer to his floor but that's also common and never unexpected. In Matusz's case, the wide disparity in performances between the end of 2010 and what he showed in 2011 means that we need to continue waiting to see where he ends up. His string of starts in 2010 show that he, at least at one point, had #2 starter stuff and showed that in the big leagues.

[Matt P]

It just proves how absolutely pathetic this organization really is. The fact that a Rule 5 draft pick who the Cubs didn't even feel they needed to protect is our 7th best prospect is a complete joke.

[bird's fan]

Let's see what Bundy does, this year, against the competition. Our scouts have missed more times than they've got it right. If Bundy has all the right stuff, 4 pitches, command and the mental make up, than it will show in the coming seasons. I don't think he's as good as projected.

[TuckerBlair89]

Let's see what Bundy does, this year, against the competition. Our scouts have missed more times than they've got it right. If Bundy has all the right stuff, 4 pitches, command and the mental make up, than it will show in the coming seasons. I don't think he's as good as projected.

Our scouts have not missed, but our development has failed.
And it's really tough to say someone isn't as good as projected, when he has not played yet. He is one of the 5 best pitching prospects in baseball right now.

[ofahn]

Our scouts have not missed, but our development has failed.

In most cases I would agree with you BUT I think we can all agree that with Rowell, the scouts missed. I find it hard to believe that his attitude didn't raise issues with SOMEONE.

[CSPitt17130]

I don't think he's as good as projected.

Based on what? If you're saying there's a good chance he doesn't become an ace, that's true. That's the case for every prospect. But this is what projections and prospects are. Scouts and coaches look at his age and background and project how much he can grow physically, mentally, stuff-wise and that becomes a projection in how effective he will be. What do you see, other than his lack of professional experience, makes you think he won't be as good as others project?

[Matt P]

Our scouts have not missed, but our development has failed.

In most cases I would agree with you BUT I think we can all agree that with Rowell, the scouts missed. I find it hard to believe that his attitude didn't raise issues with SOMEONE.

Brandon Snyder and Matt Hobgood too.

[ofahn]

Our scouts have not missed, but our development has failed.

In most cases I would agree with you BUT I think we can all agree that with Rowell, the scouts missed. I find it hard to believe that his attitude didn't raise issues with SOMEONE.

Brandon Snyder and Matt Hobgood too.

I thought about including those guys with Rowell nut I felt they were different. Snyder was drafted as a catcher and hurt his shoulder. Almost everyone knew early on that his bat wasn't good enough for a corner position yet the team didn't start playing around the infield so that he could develop into a super nullity guy. To me, that's a development problem.

Hobgood was a hard thrower with a bad body in high school. He signed quickly and the team had him on a rookie league squad right away yet they didn't focus on getting him in shape. He was tired, put too much strain on his shoulder, and two and one half years later you have the equivalent of a 10th round JuCo guy that will probably start at low A ball. To me, that's ALSO a development problem.

[Shorebirdfan]

Hobgood was a hard thrower with a bad body in high school. He signed quickly and the team had him on a rookie league squad right away yet they didn't focus on getting him in shape. He was tired, put too much strain on his shoulder, and two and one half years later you have the equivalent of a 10th round JuCo guy that will probably start at low A ball. To me, that's ALSO a development problem.

Completely agree. There are a lot of people in the minor league system coaching staff that should be looking for work. Hitting coaches that know nothing about hitting and put no effort into development. Pitching coaches that have no idea how to manage a staff, and managers who have not idea how to motivate players. Couple that with several prima dona's who think they can walk their way through the program without putting out any effort to include saying they didn't feel like playing today, and you have a system that looks just like our team does.

DD wants to make changes and invest in the minors, clean house and start again with the staffs

[bird's fan]

Bundy is a HS pitcher. Let's see how this year goes before we say he's a TOP prospect. Let's see how he reacts when things go wrong, what he does when he gets into trouble and how he pitches out of it. The mental makeup is what I question about any young player. I've watched many young player come through this system, that was a supposed to be a TOP prospect ,fall flat on their face. If he has good command , 4 pitches and a good work ethic, great, but for me, don't talk it, walk it. I've been a Orioles fan too long and I'm skeptical. I guess 14, going on 15, losing seasons does that.

[Matt P]

I agree Hobgood was also a development problem as much as a scouting problem but the fact the O's thought they were outsmarting the rest of the baseball world by drafting him as high as they did proves how terrible the scouting department is (hopefully was). If I recall correctly, wasn't he projected to be selected in the late teens / twenties? Also, didn't he suddenly throw much harder his senior season than he ever did before?

[A_K]

Not sure it was as much about trying to outsmart the rest of baseball as much as it was adopting a strategic route that's pretty common within Major League Baseball. He was projected in the mid teens, with his stock notably on the rise just before the draft, and they selected him early knowing that he could be signed quickly and on the cheap, so that they could then divert those savings to above-slot contracts for players taken later in the draft. It's an entirely defensible draft strategy that has been used quite effectively by plenty of teams in recent years.

The issue, of course, is that Hobgood fell apart virtually right away-- due in large part to developmental issues-- and the above-slot players they signed with the money they saved by taking Hobgood early have also been largely unproductive since coming into the system.

Whether Ryan Berry, Michael Ohlman, Cameron Coffey, Tim Berry and Mychal Givens are failures of development or scouting, I'll leave to a more expert opinion to surmise.

[birdwatcher55]

I think our top three guys are all very special talents and I predict Delmonico has a chance to enter that class. I think it's important we find a position he can feel comfortable with and yes even excell at in the long term