Should The Orioles Sign Joe Saunders?

[ofahn]

MLB Trade Rumors' Ben Nicholson-Smith is reporting that the Orioles have had multiple conversations with LHP Joe Saunders' agents. Do you think we should sign him?

Saunders is a classic Number Four "innings eater" in a winning team's rotation. His 2011 stats look good on the surface but should be viewed cautiously in that he played his home games in AZ and benefited from NL lineups and some pretty big parks. The number that stands out for me is 29, the number of HRs he gave up last year. That number is consistent with previous seasons.

Saunders will play at just age 30/31 next season and is LH. he has a decent ground ball rate (44.5%) and should not be as vulnerable as you might think in Camden Yards as many of the lineups he will faced will be predominately RH. If the Orioles were to offer him a base of 2 to 3M and incentives that could add about the same amount based on innings pitched I could see this as a solid addition. If he pitches well in the AL East he would make a great trade chip in July.

What I really like is the idea of forcing all of our starting pitchers to wonder if they will have a place in our crowded rotation next year. It can only give all of them an incentive to work harder.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... ign=Linker

[TuckerBlair89]

Saunders, 30, has played seven seasons with the Angels and Diamondbacks. He had a record of 12-13 with 212 innings pitched in 2011 with the Diamondbacks. His ERA was 3.69, although his FIP (4.78) and xFIP (4.38) probably indicate his true value. Saunders has a career 4.16 ERA, 4.65 FIP, 4.52 xFIP, 5.22 K/9, and a 2.84 BB/9.

I am not a Huge fan of Saunders, but I could understand a signing like this. He Eats innings and can provide semi-productive numbers, although I would doubt that his numbers would be where they are currently in the AL East. He really is not much worse than Guthrie, but Guthrie has been pitching against the Yankees, Red Sox, Jays, and Rays for the past couple years.

I personally think they would be better off just letting the young guys go for the final few spots, but like I said, I would not cry over it if they signed him.

[ofahn]

I personally think they would be better off just letting the young guys go for the final few spots

The big reason I would like to see a different approach this year is that we have left spots open in the rotation and the kids have taken them for granted, mostly through lack of preparation. Maybe if they have to sweat over a spot on the 25 man roster they will do a little more sweating this winter getting into shape.

[TuckerBlair89]

I personally think they would be better off just letting the young guys go for the final few spots

The big reason I would like to see a different approach this year is that we have left spots open in the rotation and the kids have taken them for granted, mostly through lack of preparation. Maybe if they have to sweat over a spot on the 25 man roster they will do a little more sweating this winter getting into shape.

I understand what you are saying. This year they do have Hunter, Bergesen, Eveland, Wada, Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Simon?, JJ? all vying for potential spots. The only 2 I think are shoe-ins are Britton and Guthrie, and even Britton could lose a spot if he just flat out sucked.
I just think they would be better off not signing a guy like Saunders who is not really a substantial upgrade over their current crop. He's a decent guy for the back-end of a contender with no one else really there.

Also, for whatever it is worth, these guys below are all projected close to or better than Saunders next season.
Saunders projects to a 4.20 ERA and 4.59 FIP, according to Bill James

Jake Arrieta
2011 FIP: 5.34
2011 xFIP: 4.52
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.79

Tommy Hunter
2011 FIP: 4.48
2011 xFIP: 4.28
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.48

Chris Tillman
2011 FIP: 3.99
2011 xFIP: 4.83
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.82

Brad Bergesen
2011 FIP: 4.92
2011 xFIP: 4.52
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.63

[ofahn]

I just think they would be better off not signing a guy like Saunders who is not really a substantial upgrade over their current crop.

He COULD be a starting pitcher too far BUT, if they traded Guthrie.......................

[TuckerBlair89]

I just think they would be better off not signing a guy like Saunders who is not really a substantial upgrade over their current crop.

He COULD be a starting pitcher too far BUT, if they traded Guthrie.......................

I personally think the Orioles are waiting on 1 or 2 of their young pitchers to step up before trading Guthrie. Just my opinion, although it would make is plausible to trade Guthrie if they signed Saunders I guess. I doubt it though.

[ofahn]

I just think they would be better off not signing a guy like Saunders who is not really a substantial upgrade over their current crop.

He COULD be a starting pitcher too far BUT, if they traded Guthrie.......................

I personally think the Orioles are waiting on 1 or 2 of their young pitchers to step up before trading Guthrie. Just my opinion, although it would make is plausible to trade Guthrie if they signed Saunders I guess. I doubt it though.

I have been clear that I would like the team to trade Guthrie for prospects so I would see replacing him with Saunders (or a similar pitcher) as a step in the right direction.

[osforlife]

I agree with Tuckerblair, I wouldn't cry about it if we signed him, but would rather have the young guys to out there.
Guthrie, Wada, Hunter, Britton, Arrieta. The perfect situation would be if one or more of the Hunter, Britton, Arrieta group steps up and Matusz gets his head straight in AAA by August. That would allow us to trade Guthrie for prospects. Then will still have Eveland for depth. Bergy and Tillman NEED a change of scenary or a TOTAL switch the the bullpen. Shuffling between MLB and AAA is probably messing with their heads. Plus with Bergy, shuffling between MLB rotation, MLB bullpen, AAA. They shouldn't even be candidates for the rotation. Same with Johnson and Simon, who need to both stay in the bullpen completely. The O's should probably sign more arms like Eveland because it seems like we always need alot more than one replacement.

[Zach]

I am completely against moving JJ to the rotation. He is a proven commodity at closer and something that we need/a valuable trade option. I would love to sign Joe Saunders (or Edwin Jackson for the matter) if it means that we trade Guthrie. Both offer a similar skill set to that of Guts, mainly eating a lot of innings. That being said, I think that it is more realistic that Guts will be a July trade this year as the Orioles seem to want to get as much work out of him as they can. If they were going to trade him they would have done it by now. I would prefer to sign Edwin Jackson over Saunders as he is slightly younger and I wouldn't mind adding him to Guts, not only because it provides competition between the younger pitchers, but also because he can save our bullpen some because if last year is any indication they will get overworked if we have 4 of the younger pitchers in the rotation.

[ofahn]

I would prefer to sign Edwin Jackson over Saunders

Jackson will probably require a 4/50M investment. Saunders, 1/4 to 5M. That makes Saunders an easy choice for me.

[birdwatcher55]

We already have innings eaters in Guthrie and Hunter. I would rather bring in some top shelf talent. Pass on Saunders

[ofahn]

I would rather bring in some top shelf talent.

Yep, and you'll find them in the same aisle as unicorns and abominable snowmen.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Saunders would not last in the AL East and the Orioles already have enough starters competing for spots. Pass.

[birdwatcher55]

I would rather bring in some top shelf talent.

Yep, and you'll find them in the same aisle as unicorns and abominable snowmen.

I'm guessing you shop there quite often

[ofahn]

Saunders would not last in the AL East and the Orioles already have enough starters competing for spots. Pass.

I can't argue that we already have a bundle of potential starters. In fact, Roch Kubatko wrote an entry on his blog about it today http://www.masnsports.com/school_of_roc ... -mora.html. He questions whether there's a trade brewing, and I can understand why.

Maybe I'm a crowd of one on this subject but I would prefer to see us add as much starting pitching as possible before camp starts. It would make up for a lot of bad luck. Players come to camp out of shape? Covered. Injuries? Covered. Sub par performance? Covered.

Let's say we do bring ten potential starters into camp and eight of them pitch well enough to go north. You only need five, so maybe two of them have options. The third guy becomes trade bait for a team that thinks they're going to compete but had a disappointment in their projected rotation. You move the salary and get something back for them.

There is one other possibility. The negotiations with Saunders could be leverage to get Chen Wei-Yin signed. He's probably the best of our options anyway.