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What Does Baseball America's 2012 Orioles' Prospect List Tell Us?

What Does Baseball America's 2012 Orioles' Prospect List Tell Us?

PostPost #1 by ofahn » December 22nd, 2011, 2:54 pm

MASN's Roch Kubatko got an early report on how Baseball America ranked the Orioles' prospects for 2012.

Dylan Bundy
Manny Machado
Jonathan Schoop
Parker Bridwell
LJ Hoes
Nicky Delmonico
Ryan Flaherty
Jason Esposito
Xavier Avery
Dan Klein

While I'm happy that these players are in our system and almost any team would take them I have to be honest in saying that this list depresses me. Two facts stand out: There is almost NO ML ready talent at the upper minor league level and we need to add a substantial number of legitimate prospects. Here is my take on each player.

Dylan Bundy RHP - a special talent but one that has never thrown a professional pitch. His intangibles including personal makeup and work ethic combined with his ability seem to assure that he will be a ML pitcher but it's a long way from HS phenom to an ace ML starter. Best guess to stick on the ML roster - 2014.

Manny Machado SS - another special talent but one that has yet to be dominant above low A ball. Frederick was the first level he struggled at and he seemed to be making the adjustments at the end of the season. We really won't know how quickly he can help in Baltimore until we see whether he can dominate at AA this year. Best guess to stick on the ML roster - 2014

Jonathan Schoop (?) - a solid hitter that struggled a bit at high A this year and then seemed to make the adjustments. That fact that the team has yet to decide on a position for him tells me that he won't (shouldn't) be fast tracked through the minors if we want a complete ball player in Baltimore. Best guess to stick on the ML roster - 2014.

Parker Bridwell RHP - a starter's body and a cannon for an arm but a pitcher that has yet to be dominant at any level in professional ball. Best guess to stick on the ML roster - 2015.

LJ Hoes (?) - starting to come into his own as a hitter but the organization has yet to (publicly) settle on a position for him. He's probably best suited for LF but he will have to hit at an .800 OPS or better to be a regular on a winning ML team at that position and he should have at least a full season at AAA with extensive instruction at his position to be ready for the majors. Best guess to stick on the ML roster - 2013.

Nicky Delmonico (?) - one of the top three hitting talents in the farm system but a player that has not yet been assigned a position nor played an inning of pro ball. He may be the best 1B prospect in our system on the basis of his bat and our lack of any other legitimate prospect there. Best guess to stick on the ML roster - 2015.

Ryan Flaherty (?) - a solid bat at utility fielder but a player without a defined position. If his glove is good enough and he can hit his weight he may stick on the ML roster because he's a Rule 5 draftee.

Jason Esposito 3B - maybe the best infield glove in the farm system. The question is whether he's going to hit enough to be an ML regular on a winning team. Best guess to stick on the ML roster - 2014.

Xavier Avery CF - probably the best athlete in the system. Struggled at the plate in AA but was scorching hot for six weeks in the AFL. Will need at least two more years in the minors to refine his talent at the plate and in the field. Best guess to stick on the ML roster - 2014.

Dan Klein RHP - talent combined with the knowledge of pitching; however, he's coming off of an arm injury and may need to use most of this season to regain his status as the Orioles' top pitching prospect closest to being ML ready.

Based upon this list and analysis there's very little coming from the minors for the next few seasons and the Class of 2014 needs to avoid injuries and develop at a steady pace to make a difference, even then. To me, these facts mean that we should be looking to move some of our valuable parts for quality prospects this winter instead of spending big money trying to build a winner in 2012.

What's your take on the list? Do you agree with my analysis? Do you think we should rebuild or risk spending big right away? Please explain your opinions so that others can better understand them.
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Re: What Does Baseball America's 2012 Orioles' Prospect List Tell Us?

PostPost #2 by Tucker Blair » December 22nd, 2011, 3:50 pm

The thing that sticks out to me the most is that our Rule 5 pick Flaherty Ranks 7th in our system. That is BAD. It just shows the lack of depth that we have in our organization, and sadly, it might not change anytime soon. It takes years to build up organizational depth. Of course, better development would also help.

I think you are being a LITTLE harsh on Machado. But like you said, he seems to be making the adjustments and I think he will put up a good season this year in AA. I watched him last season twice and came away very impressed. He just has the look of a "star"

Overall, I can't really argue with much, as I haven't even seen Delmonico or Esposito play besides highlight reels.

Count me as a fan of Avery. Law, and others think his ceiling is a 4th OF, but I think he could end up being an Average OF in the future. He cannot be rushed though, and will need all the time possible.
I also really like Klein, and I think if he stays healthy he will be a good addition to our pen possibly by the midway point of 2012.

I actually played against LJ Hoes in Highschool. So I have a little homer-istic view of him haha. I think he could eventually produce, but I don't want to jump towards any conclusions based off of his Torrid second half surge. But I do not care about what position he plays at this point. He needs to grow as a hitter first and foremost, although not having a position could certainly be a distraction.
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Re: What Does Baseball America's 2012 Orioles' Prospect List Tell Us?

PostPost #3 by ofahn » December 22nd, 2011, 4:04 pm

TuckerBlair89 wrote:I think you are being a LITTLE harsh on Machado. But like you said, he seems to be making the adjustments and I think he will put up a good season this year in AA. I watched him last season twice and came away very impressed. He just has the look of a "star"


Please don't misunderstand my intent. I'm not questioning that Machado has a ML future. He does. The point that I'm trying to make is that it's unreasonable to count on him for at least two years.

I just don't understand the fans that rabidly scream OVERPAY, OVERPAY, FOR THE LOVE OF BROOKS ROBINSON SPEND WHATEVER IS NECESSARY TO GET ___________! AND GET THAT GUY, TOO, CAUSE THEN WE MIGHT WIN 85 GAMES THIS YEAR! IF we had a farm system ready to spit out a lot of real talent like the Nats THEN I could see opening the checkbook. I don't think anyone that that hasn't used a two for one coupon at the lobotomy clinic would confuse our farm system for Washington's.
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Re: What Does Baseball America's 2012 Orioles' Prospect List Tell Us?

PostPost #4 by Rising O's » December 25th, 2011, 1:42 pm

The gap is something that has been noted before. Mostly it was due to arm injuries but some was simply taking HS players that were long term projects like Givens, Hoes, Hobgood and Avery. Jordan's philosophy never seemed to mesh with that the GM(s) plan which again has led to this gap after the graduation of Matusz, Wieters etc...

2014-2015 is about what I would want as it gives the Orioles the potential to have a starting rotation of seasoned pitchers and a couple of guys around 28 who can lead the offense. Its why they need to continue to move major league players who are not going to be in their primes as we promote the players on BA's list.
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Re: What Does Baseball America's 2012 Orioles' Prospect List Tell Us?

PostPost #5 by ofahn » December 25th, 2011, 1:53 pm

Rising O's wrote:2014-2015 is about what I would want as it gives the Orioles the potential to have a starting rotation of seasoned pitchers and a couple of guys around 28 who can lead the offense. Its why they need to continue to move major league players who are not going to be in their primes as we promote the players on BA's list.


The impression I get is that Duquette would be OK with that course of action but that Angelos won't allow it. I hope I'm wrong but, if I'm right, we're in for many more years of misery.
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Re: What Does Baseball America's 2012 Orioles' Prospect List Tell Us?

PostPost #6 by Zach » December 25th, 2011, 4:58 pm

I like he analysis, but think that even 2014 might be a little optomistic on some of the prospects. I would rather we give them the time to develop so they don't flop once they get to the majors than rush them up like we have done in the past. Hoes and Avery I see that potential for. Shoop I think would be a rush to get him there by 2014.
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Re: What Does Baseball America's 2012 Orioles' Prospect List Tell Us?

PostPost #7 by ofahn » December 25th, 2011, 5:27 pm

Zach wrote:Shoop I think would be a rush to get him there by 2014


I based that assessment on the fact that Schoop struggled for about a month at Frederick and then made the adjustments that made him a dominant player again. I would probably start him at Frederick again this year but I wouldn't be surprised if he is dominant coming out of the gate and moves to Bowie by mid May.

I think his bat would be ready in 2014. What concerns me is his glove. I think the team should decide where they want him to play in the majors and tell him that before Spring Training. I'd like to see him play at least 250 games at his permanent position before he comes to Baltimore.
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Re: What Does Baseball America's 2012 Orioles' Prospect List Tell Us?

PostPost #8 by Zach » December 25th, 2011, 8:58 pm

I agree with the 250 plate appearances. I think the same thing should be done with LJ Hoes. Would love for it to be 2b, but it seems as though LF seems more reasonable.
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Re: What Does Baseball America's 2012 Orioles' Prospect List Tell Us?

PostPost #9 by kwalker35 » December 26th, 2011, 5:51 pm

The problem I have with BA lists , they have players rated that has not played any pro ball yet. This makes the organization look even worse in their developement of talent. You are telling me that you can't rate 10 players that are prospects that are on minor league teams.
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Re: What Does Baseball America's 2012 Orioles' Prospect List Tell Us?

PostPost #10 by ofahn » December 26th, 2011, 5:57 pm

kwalker35 wrote:You are telling me that you can't rate 10 players that are prospects that are on minor league teams.

In our case that list wouldn't be pretty.
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Re: What Does Baseball America's 2012 Orioles' Prospect List Tell Us?

PostPost #11 by Shorebirdfan » December 26th, 2011, 10:36 pm

kwalker35 wrote:The problem I have with BA lists , they have players rated that has not played any pro ball yet. This makes the organization look even worse in their developement of talent. You are telling me that you can't rate 10 players that are prospects that are on minor league teams.


You are correct and really goes to 3 things. 1. The propects we have had have been rushed to the big leagues, weakening the system. 2. When we have players that are ready, we let them move on to another team (see Justin Turner, Peado Beato). 3. The weak leadership in the minors hinders the development of talent within the organiztion.
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Re: What Does Baseball America's 2012 Orioles' Prospect List Tell Us?

PostPost #12 by CSPitt17130 » December 26th, 2011, 11:38 pm

kwalker35 wrote:You are telling me that you can't rate 10 players that are prospects that are on minor league teams.


The people making these lists don't rely solely on minor league statistics to determine the top prospects. Scouts look at tools, mechanics, etc. and weigh those with how well they performed. They can look at players like Bundy and know that they are better prospects than guys who have played in the minors.Just because Bundy hasn't thrown a pitch in the minors doesn't change the fact that he has hit 100 mph, has four usable or better pitches, and a very repeatable delivery as an 18 year old. If they're part of the organization now, they're a prospect for the organization, and why not include them in the rankings?

Shorebirdfan wrote:2. When we have players that are ready, we let them move on to another team (see Justin Turner, Peado Beato).


You say this like having those guys would make the Orioles better. They're replacement level or worse. The O's aren't letting anyone worth anything go for free.
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Re: What Does Baseball America's 2012 Orioles' Prospect List Tell Us?

PostPost #13 by bird's fan » January 4th, 2012, 12:47 pm

CSPitt17130 wrote:
kwalker35 wrote:You are telling me that you can't rate 10 players that are prospects that are on minor league teams.


The people making these lists don't rely solely on minor league statistics to determine the top prospects. Scouts look at tools, mechanics, etc. and weigh those with how well they performed. They can look at players like Bundy and know that they are better prospects than guys who have played in the minors.Just because Bundy hasn't thrown a pitch in the minors doesn't change the fact that he has hit 100 mph, has four usable or better pitches, and a very repeatable delivery as an 18 year old. If they're part of the organization now, they're a prospect for the organization, and why not include them in the rankings? Because someone throws 100 MPH doesn't make him a pitcher. This kid has been throwing HS baseball, not college. Until he proves himself, not just physically but between the ears, he can't be judged a top prospect. Besides, remember our Minor League spring training last year, we looked like a mash unit with all the arm injuries to our young pitchers. Until we change how things are done, with our young arms, we will always be behind in the process. We had no roving pitching instructors to evaluate the young guys, in the minor leagues and maybe give them some guidance. That might be trivial to some but we were the only organization that didn't have a roving pitching instructors. Bundy might be legit but with our current system he could fall to injury or not get the proper coaching to move him along.

Shorebirdfan wrote:2. When we have players that are ready, we let them move on to another team (see Justin Turner, Peado Beato).


You say this like having those guys would make the Orioles better. They're replacement level or worse. The O's aren't letting anyone worth anything go for free.
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Re: What Does Baseball America's 2012 Orioles' Prospect List Tell Us?

PostPost #14 by CSPitt17130 » January 4th, 2012, 1:25 pm

Because someone throws 100 MPH doesn't make him a pitcher. This kid has been throwing HS baseball, not college. Until he proves himself, not just physically but between the ears, he can't be judged a top prospect. Besides, remember our Minor League spring training last year, we looked like a mash unit with all the arm injuries to our young pitchers. Until we change how things are done, with our young arms, we will always be behind in the process. We had no roving pitching instructors to evaluate the young guys, in the minor leagues and maybe give them some guidance. That might be trivial to some but we were the only organization that didn't have a roving pitching instructors. Bundy might be legit but with our current system he could fall to injury or not get the proper coaching to move him along.


Throwing 100 mph doesn't make him a pitcher but everything else I mentioned about him does: 4 pitches, repeatable delivery, good command, etc. He's already shown that he has tremendous work ethic and has it together mentally. Maybe your definition of prospect is different than those of the people who do this professionally. None of them would say that Dylan isn't a top prospect.
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Re: What Does Baseball America's 2012 Orioles' Prospect List Tell Us?

PostPost #15 by ofahn » January 4th, 2012, 1:32 pm

CSPitt17130 wrote:Throwing 100 mph doesn't make him a pitcher but everything else I mentioned about him does: 4 pitches, repeatable delivery, good command, etc. He's already shown that he has tremendous work ethic and has it together mentally. Maybe your definition of prospect is different than those of the people who do this professionally. None of them would say that Dylan isn't a top prospect.


I don't think anyone is questioning that Dylan Bundy is a legitimate prospect, but that's what he is - a prospect that has never thrown a professional pitch. You would have to be very optimistic to see him becoming a difference maker in Baltimore any time before 2014. The fact that he's one of the two best prospects in our system and the other guy, Machado, should arrive around the same time means this team will not have much support coming from the farm for a while.
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