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Rotation Statistics

Rotation Statistics

PostPost #1 by Tucker Blair » December 20th, 2011, 10:11 pm

I was bored, so I decided to look up some stats. Below are the 2011 FIP, xFIP and Bill James' projected 2012 FIP of all the possible SP candidates for the Orioles in 2012. Enjoy, for whatever it's worth.

Zach Britton
2011 FIP: 4.0
2011 xFIP: 4.12
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 3.84

Jeremy Guthrie
2011 FIP: 4.48
2011 xFIP: 4.47
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.56

Brian Matusz
2011 FIP: 7.66
2011 xFIP: 5.22
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.55

Jake Arrieta
2011 FIP: 5.34
2011 xFIP: 4.52
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.79

Tommy Hunter
2011 FIP: 4.48
2011 xFIP: 4.28
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.48

Chris Tillman
2011 FIP: 3.99
2011 xFIP: 4.83
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.82

Brad Bergesen
2011 FIP: 4.92
2011 xFIP: 4.52
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 4.63

Dana Eveland (only 30 Innings in 2011)
2011 FIP: 3.19
2011 xFIP: 3.60
Bill James 2012 FIP Projection: 3.81

No projections of Tsuyoshi Wada available yet.
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Re: Rotation Statistics

PostPost #2 by Matt P » December 20th, 2011, 10:17 pm

Wow, never would have thought Tillman had the lowest on the team last year (amongst starters).
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Re: Rotation Statistics

PostPost #3 by Tucker Blair » December 20th, 2011, 10:20 pm

Matt P wrote:Wow, never would have thought Tillman had the lowest on the team last year (amongst starters).


His numbers are REALLY weird. His xFIP and ERA are like afull run higher than his FIP
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Re: Rotation Statistics

PostPost #4 by Matt P » December 20th, 2011, 10:26 pm

I'm also pretty shocked at how low he projects Eveland's to be next season.

These projections are always ridiculously favorable to the player though and rarely end up being right.
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Re: Rotation Statistics

PostPost #5 by Tucker Blair » December 20th, 2011, 10:28 pm

Matt P wrote:I'm also pretty shocked at how low he projects Eveland's to be next season.

These projections are always ridiculously favorable to the player though and rarely end up being right.

Yea the Eveland projection is pretty lolworthy. He has him only pitching 59 innings though, So it's not even projecting him to be a SP anyways.

Fun to look at though.
Last edited by Tucker Blair on December 20th, 2011, 10:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Rotation Statistics

PostPost #6 by Matt P » December 20th, 2011, 10:29 pm

Oh, I thought that was projected as a full season of starting.
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Re: Rotation Statistics

PostPost #7 by Tucker Blair » December 20th, 2011, 10:30 pm

Matt P wrote:Oh, I thought that was projected as a full season of starting.

haha, I did too, until I went back and looked at it.
My bad.
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Re: Rotation Statistics

PostPost #8 by Jordan Tuwiner » December 20th, 2011, 10:58 pm

Matt P wrote:Wow, never would have thought Tillman had the lowest on the team last year (amongst starters).

He was very lucky with HRs. If you look at Tillman's xFIP you will see it is a lot higher.
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Re: Rotation Statistics

PostPost #9 by birdwatcher55 » December 24th, 2011, 11:26 am

I don't see why everyone thinks Bill James is God. When it comes to projections, I don't think he knows his *** from his elbow 8-)
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Re: Rotation Statistics

PostPost #10 by ofahn » December 24th, 2011, 12:00 pm

birdwatcher55 wrote:I don't see why everyone thinks Bill James is God. When it comes to projections, I don't think he knows his *** from his elbow 8-)

Have you ever thought that he might have the same opinion about you?
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Re: Rotation Statistics

PostPost #11 by birdwatcher55 » December 25th, 2011, 7:31 am

ofahn wrote:
birdwatcher55 wrote:I don't see why everyone thinks Bill James is God. When it comes to projections, I don't think he knows his *** from his elbow 8-)

Have you ever thought that he might have the same opinion about you?

You're a funny guy. You should be on stage. Seriously I lost all confidence in James for a number of reasons. A classic James projection: 12/62/.285 for Felix Pie 8-)
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Re: Rotation Statistics

PostPost #12 by thezeroes » December 25th, 2011, 9:08 am

According to Baseball- Reference, Felix Pie would have the following line per 162 Game Schedule and it is based on his actual numbers. I do not know what James Projection was based on (Playing time, place in batting order,Park Factors, etc...) but your 12/62/.285 line is not that far off of reality.
428 - PA
392 - AB
52 - Runs
98 - Hits
18 - 2B
5 - 3B
7 - HR
39 - RBI
.249 - BA
.298 - OBP
.374 - SLG
.673 - OPS

You pick one player from a possible 1,200 that get projected in any given year and then have it not be that far from reality. (12 Hits)
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