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Orioles reach agreement with Endy Chavez

Re: Orioles reach agreement with Endy Chavez

PostPost #16 by A_K » December 19th, 2011, 1:10 pm

Fan sentiment and attendance aren't swayed by offseason signings. Fans will become more engaged, and decide to attend more games, when the O's start winning. Focusing your attention on the feelings of fans is putting the cart before the horse.

Now, it's also true that Endy Chaves-- like Taylor Teagarden, Dana Eveland, et al-- won't make any meaningful difference on the team's W-L record. But that doesn't necessarily mean they are bad moves. It doesn't necessarily mean they're good moves, either. But as a first order approximation, grading trades on the basis of how much effect they have on perceived fan sentiment is a waste of bandwidth.

My preference would have been to see a bold offseason in which the team truly committed to building its farm system at the expense of the big league club. Trade Jones, Hardy, Markakis (if possible), Reynolds and Guthrie, while committing what would normally be spent on stop-gap free agents to commitments in the international market. That was my preferred offseason plan.

But what they've done instead-- the "do nothing of note" plan-- is far preferable to me than the third alternative: throw money around in the high end of the free agent market in order to send a signal to the fans that "you're committed to winning," or whatever other trite cliche would have been used to justify the overpaying of veteran major leaguers who won't meaningfully change the team's W-L record.

So, this wouldn't have been my plan of action, but I recognize that it could be a whole lot worse. At the very least, I don't see how it could be said that they've done any harm, at least thus far. At this point in the franchise's history, that's a small victory.
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Re: Orioles reach agreement with Endy Chavez

PostPost #17 by Matt P » December 19th, 2011, 1:19 pm

Shorebirdfan wrote:
Matt P wrote:Are you people serious with all this Matt Angle stuff or is it an ongoing joke from before I registered on this site? Chavez is a much better 4th OF than Matt Angle will ever be.


Extremely serious. So let me ask you, how many times have you seen Matt Angle play? Are you basing your opinion (which I assume from your comments is negative) on 70AB and some stats you've reviewed?

I've seen him play a couple of times when he was with Norfolk and every game with the Orioles.
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Re: Orioles reach agreement with Endy Chavez

PostPost #18 by ofahn » December 19th, 2011, 2:22 pm

A_K wrote:But what they've done instead-- the "do nothing of note" plan-- is far preferable to me than the third alternative: throw money around in the high end of the free agent market in order to send a signal to the fans that "you're committed to winning," or whatever other trite cliche would have been used to justify the overpaying of veteran major leaguers who won't meaningfully change the team's W-L record.


I was thinking the same thing. Wasting money on Fielder, Roy Oswalt, or Edwin Jackson might sell another 500K tickets this year, but at what cost? That money could be used so much better for young international talent and the team wouldn't feel compelled to play veterans to win 85 games or so instead of prospects. Let's face it, even if we did win 85 games does anyone really think that will be more than the bottom three of the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rays, Tigers, Rangers, and Angels next year? We would need to come in fifth on that list to make the playoffs and that's the only reason to mortgage your future.
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Re: Orioles reach agreement with Endy Chavez

PostPost #19 by ofahn » December 19th, 2011, 2:37 pm

A_K wrote:My preference would have been to see a bold offseason in which the team truly committed to building its farm system at the expense of the big league club. Trade Jones, Hardy, Markakis (if possible), Reynolds and Guthrie, while committing what would normally be spent on stop-gap free agents to commitments in the international market. That was my preferred offseason plan.


I would agree with trading Jones, Hardy, and Guthrie. In fact, I suggested on this sight that we make a deal for all three with the Nationals for a package of five of their top ten prospects which they might see as expendable if it meant going to the playoffs. This move makes all the sense in the world to me because the Nats want to win now and adding these three would give them the reason to jump into the Fielder market especially when it appears to be thinner than anyone thought. Adding Fielder and our three to that roster would make them a monster.

What I don't understand is why you feel it's necessary to trade Markakis and Reynolds. What do you see other teams willing to give for them? I can't imagine that it would be premium prospects and there's nothing in the barren upper levels of our farm system to replace them. Come July, Reynolds might become a much more valuable trade chip. Particularly if he shows league average or better defense at 1B. If you can get a B level or better prospect for him you pull the trigger and fill the position with what you have on the roster. Markakis won't get you much unless he has an OPS of over .800 again and, if he does, why would you want to trade him?
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Re: Orioles reach agreement with Endy Chavez

PostPost #20 by A_K » December 19th, 2011, 4:38 pm

I mostly agree with you on Markakis and Reynolds. Markakis' contract and Reynolds' defense depress their value to the point that they're essentially worth more to us as players than they'd be as trade chips.

The reason I still want to trade them is because I have no problem watching a team that wins 50-some games. As a result, I have no problem trading good major leaguers for middling prospects that'll probably never make the majors. Just that word "probably" is enough for me. Due to the extremely poor major league product I'm willing to accept, I'm willing to move players that I acknowledge are worthwhile pieces whose big league production is likely to exceed the prospect-value they'd fetch in a trade.

I'd be fine with keeping them, too. In general, though, I believe our position should be that we're looking to trade all assets with any value whatsoever for prospects that are cheaper and younger.
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Re: Orioles reach agreement with Endy Chavez

PostPost #21 by Rising O's » December 19th, 2011, 6:03 pm

Welcome. It is what it is. Expect 95 losses and be happy if its only 85.
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Re: Orioles reach agreement with Endy Chavez

PostPost #22 by mthompson » December 20th, 2011, 12:08 am

We are not a small market team, so lets stop acting like I does not make sense to sign Fielder. It is not about a few tickets or a few wins its about a 27yo monster bat that you can build around. You can not build around prospects when you do not have many and when the success rate of prospescts varies. The Yankees and Red Sox are in our division and that is not changing. If the orioles were in the AL central, where parody is of the norm, the game plan may change, but that is not the case. Talent is talent and if you look at the free agent market, guys like Prince are not going to be avail at 27. We need tostop overthinking this is baseball. Jones, Markakis , guthrie, wieters are good so you keep them and keep adding. I am not saying go after a free agent ace for 100 million, but you have guthrie who is a 200 inning solid veteran. Why not get an Edwin Jackson at 10 mill a year to give u another 200 inn guy w/ electric stuff. That is 2 solid cogs in a rotation. Just keep getting talent and dont make stupd signings of 35+yo players. Im not saying im 100% right, but come on, we need an infusion of talented young players and a 27 yo fielder and a 28 yo jackson make some sense to me and dont give me the we wont comepete for 2 more years crap, they will still be in the prime of there careers
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Re: Orioles reach agreement with Endy Chavez

PostPost #23 by ofahn » December 20th, 2011, 12:13 am

mthompson wrote:We are not a small market team, so lets stop acting like I does not make sense to sign Fielder. It is not about a few tickets or a few wins its about a 27yo monster bat that you can build around. You can not build around prospects when you do not have many and when the success rate of prospescts varies. The Yankees and Red Sox are in our division and that is not changing. If the orioles were in the AL central, where parody is of the norm, the game plan may change, but that is not the case. Talent is talent and if you look at the free agent market, guys like Prince are not going to be avail at 27. We need tostop overthinking this is baseball. Jones, Markakis , guthrie, wieters are good so you keep them and keep adding. I am not saying go after a free agent ace for 100 million, but you have guthrie who is a 200 inning solid veteran. Why not get an Edwin Jackson at 10 mill a year to give u another 200 inn guy w/ electric stuff. That is 2 solid cogs in a rotation. Just keep getting talent and dont make stupd signings of 35+yo players. Im not saying im 100% right, but come on, we need an infusion of talented young players and a 27 yo fielder and a 28 yo jackson make some sense to me and dont give me the we wont comepete for 2 more years crap, they will still be in the prime of there careers


All of this equals an 85 win team for the next two or three years until it becomes a 70 win team again. How many times do we have to learn the same lesson?
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Re: Orioles reach agreement with Endy Chavez

PostPost #24 by mthompson » December 20th, 2011, 12:44 am

it gives a chance. Do u have any ideas that can help us make the playoffs. This doing nothing crap is worse then anything we can do. The good thing about getting Fielder and jackson is that we can still build further. Next year more players will be avail via trade and free agency and if more talent comes then we win more and if we keep winning more what else could anyone want? Looking back, all we have signed of note was miggy, and he was a good signing. It was not his fault that we failed to surround him with anything that even resembled talent. Do not bring up albert Belle it was almost 15 years ago and not worth talking about. Yankee and red sox fans would be laughing if they read some of these posts with people talking put crap like matt angle and endy chavez. We need to have more respect for ourselves as baseball fans of a historically relevent franchise.
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Re: Orioles reach agreement with Endy Chavez

PostPost #25 by mthompson » December 20th, 2011, 12:58 am

The Orioles have not signed a functional high price pitcher of any note or a high priced bat under the age of 30 since 1998!!!! It could be longer I stopped looking. So how is signing big players learning the same lesson. No Lesson has ever been learned. I agree we should stop signing the 32-37yo stop gaps and the reject pitchers, but we still do. Prince Fielder is a top 10 bat in baseball and will be for AT LEAST the next 5 years. To not want to have a guy like that on your team, you know damn well we can afford it, is not something i can understand. Prince Fielder is a year YOUNGER then reimold who people on this sight are dieing to see get a chance like he is some sort of top prospect or young stud.
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Re: Orioles reach agreement with Endy Chavez

PostPost #26 by j.q. higgins » December 20th, 2011, 8:32 am

to be fair, they did not KNOW tejada was 30 when they signed him. it was only revealed that his birth certificate was faked several years later.
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Re: Orioles reach agreement with Endy Chavez

PostPost #27 by birdwatcher55 » December 20th, 2011, 12:23 pm

I have to admit: this signing just excites the daylights out of me :lol:
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Re: Orioles reach agreement with Endy Chavez

PostPost #28 by A_K » December 20th, 2011, 12:40 pm

Even if it did excite the daylights out of you, that excitement would totally expire by the fifth game of the season... unless the team was winning. Winning excites fans. There's no way around the fundamental reality. Putting Prince Fielder on a 100-loss team wouldn't move the needle for season-long attendance figures.
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Re: Orioles reach agreement with Endy Chavez

PostPost #29 by ofahn » December 20th, 2011, 1:58 pm

A_K wrote:Even if it did excite the daylights out of you, that excitement would totally expire by the fifth game of the season... unless the team was winning. Winning excites fans. There's no way around the fundamental reality. Putting Prince Fielder on a 100-loss team wouldn't move the needle for season-long attendance figures.


I believe that the core of the Baltimore fan base understands baseball. That being said they know when the team is heading in the right direction and when they're being sold another load of fertilizer. Right now I think we're being sold sold an over sized load.

Dan Duquette has said all the right things, but then so did every other new GM we've had over the last fourteen miserable years. I want to be clear that I think Duquette could fix this team if he was given the chance. Unfortunately, I'm starting to think Peter Angelos established ground rules when Duquette was hired that will not allow him to be successful.

The farm system above A level is almost empty. Restocking it will require trading quality ML players which means starting another rebuilding effort. If Angelos was clear that he wouldn't approve of trading Jones or certain other players then we're doomed to another long stretch of mediocrity.

All I want for Christmas is for Dan Duquette to get Peter Angelos' permission to call Mike Rizzo in Washington and offer CF Adam Jones, SS JJ Hardy, and SP Jeremy Guthrie for Bryce Harper (listen to my reasoning before you spit out your energy drink), RHP Brad Peacock, RHP A.J. Cole, LHP Sammy Solis, and 2B/SS Steve Lombardozzi.

This trade makes sense for both teams. The Nationals go to the playoffs right now and control Jones and Hardy through 2013. Guthrie is a free agent after the season but the Nats would probably earn a draft pick for him if he left. Their scouting department knows what to do with those high picks. Bryce Harper is absolutely a major talent but he won't get Washington to the promised land by himself and he's a LF; a position that is much easier to fill than CF. Besides that, Mike Morse would move back to LF when Rendon takes over 1B. The combined upgrade of Hardy at SS, Jones in CF, and Morse's contribution in LF would be much more than the upgrade of Harper in LF when he starts making a consistent contribution in 2013 or so.

When Rizzo balks at including Harper Duquette can counter with offering to take 1B Adam LaRoche, too, as a player to be named later which would open up 1B for the Nats to sign Fielder. If they don't, we would take a different throw in or a few bucks in cash.

The Orioles benefit by having a solid SP candidate (Peacock) and middle infielder (Lombardozzi) for 2012, two more candidates (Solis and Harper) to join the advanced elements of The Cavalry: The Sequel scheduled to arrive in 2013, and Cole should be part of the Class of 2014 which will probably include both Bundys, Machado, and Schoop. Harper would give us the legitimate power prospect this team so desperately needs. Make a solid run at Cespedes and Soler with the money we DIDN'T spend on some over priced "free" agent and you have a solid foundation of talent to build on. They could put LaRoche, a lefty, at DH until he rebuilds his value and then trade him.

An added benefit for Washington is that they add the players they need without committing to expensive and risky long term contracts which would give them the money and prospects they might need to acquire any last piece they feel they need next July.

I dream about sitting in the stands in late September and watching a wild celebration on the field. I just want it to be because we're going to the playoffs and haven't just eliminated someone else.
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Re: Orioles reach agreement with Endy Chavez

PostPost #30 by Matt P » December 20th, 2011, 9:47 pm

Why would that Nationals ruin one of the brightest futures in baseball just to compete for 2-3 years?
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