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Duquette's goal is .500. What needs to be done to get there?

Duquette's goal is .500. What needs to be done to get there?

PostPost #1 by Jordan Tuwiner » December 7th, 2011, 9:45 pm

The Orioles put up 22.8 WAR last year, and to get to .500 they will need to add about 13-17 WAR additional WAR to get to 35-38 total.

So where can they get this 13-17 WAR? We know they aren't going to spend big on free agents, at least until they reach .500. So this 13-17 WAR must come from players currently on the roster.

Which player can they get some of this from?

They would need huge years from Markakis and Jones, a healthy Brian Roberts, a better Mark Reynolds (defensively), a repeat 4.8 WAR performance from Hardy -- that's just for offense.

Is it possible to find this 13-17 WAR on the roster?
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Re: Duquette's goal is .500. What needs to be done to get there?

PostPost #2 by ofahn » December 7th, 2011, 9:59 pm

It will all come down to pitching...pitching...pitching. Improvements by those already on the roster and what we can find in the bargain bin or slightly damaged rack.
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Re: Duquette's goal is .500. What needs to be done to get there?

PostPost #3 by Tucker Blair » December 7th, 2011, 10:15 pm

I think it is possible. But it is very VERY unlikely. If the Orioles were to go into the season expecting bounce back seasons and exponential growth from everyone, then they would be fools.
Of course, we all know they probably do not expect that.
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Re: Duquette's goal is .500. What needs to be done to get there?

PostPost #4 by Shorebirdfan » December 7th, 2011, 11:34 pm

I think I read some posts on Twitter from Don talking about how the Orioles played better in September because with the expanded 40 man roster the bullpen was fresher (more depth). In these posts he stated that to be successful the team needed to have starters go longer, requiring less work from the bullpen, allowing them to be more fresh, and therefore perform better.

Couldn't be said any better so I won't even try.
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Re: Duquette's goal is .500. What needs to be done to get there?

PostPost #5 by Rising O's » December 8th, 2011, 8:32 am

A starting pitcher, a solid #2. A lead-off hitter, someone with a .360 OBP. Bullpen arm, someone who can help the team win games late.

Darvish might be that guy, if they want to spend the money. Matt Antonelli might be that guy, even though he's a dark horse, even when he's not hitting he has a patient approach. Having Simon in shape and ready, might be that guy, but it would not hurt to find another to go with Johnson. But they may already have them too with late additions in Strop, Philips and Patton, it would mean more money to spend elsewhere, like LF.
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Re: Duquette's goal is .500. What needs to be done to get there?

PostPost #6 by LA Detective » December 8th, 2011, 4:55 pm

Just about everything that could go wrong last year did. Most young guys didnt advance. I think our young pitching took their lumps and I think that they all might be that much more prepared to start reaching their potential this coming year.

For me its dramatically improving the defense. I want Angle in LF...I want a defensive back-up for BR at 2b.... I want a defensive 3b....We have a core that plays good "D" but those 3 positions were so bad last year it killed us....This will allow the SP to make the improvments. ...

would love to have Fielder...Would love to have a innings eating SP....But if we just put a top notch defensive and fundamentally sound team on the field and let the young guys imporve, that alone will put us at .500
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Re: Duquette's goal is .500. What needs to be done to get there?

PostPost #7 by osforlife » December 8th, 2011, 6:29 pm

Arrieta, Britton, Guthrie, and Hunter need to start 30 games, win at least 12, and pitch to an era under under 4.20.
Hardy needs to repeat his success.
Wieters needs to repeat his success.
Reynolds needs to hit 35 homeruns again and play better defense at first than he did at third.
Adams/Andino/Antonelli/Flaherty need to play well if Roberts does not come back healthy. Pefreable at hit at least .260.
Gregg has to lower his whip.
Johnson needs to show he can handle the closer's role.
Reimold and Davis need to show they can handle a everyday job.
Jones has to improve his obp.
If all these things happen I think we could possibly compete for a wild card spot.
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Re: Duquette's goal is .500. What needs to be done to get there?

PostPost #8 by ofahn » December 8th, 2011, 6:43 pm

osforlife wrote:If all these things happen I think we could possibly compete for a wild card spot.


If a wild card team needs 87 wins or less. I also believe at least three of the players you mentioned will be traded by August 1st.
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Re: Duquette's goal is .500. What needs to be done to get there?

PostPost #9 by Don » December 8th, 2011, 9:01 pm

The Orioles need to make systematic steps, and that does include making it to .500

BUT

I absolutely hate to settle for anything and coming out to say we want to be .500 is not the direction you bring to placate the masses. You say we are here to win championships and will take the steps to reach that goal. Think big, but take the small incremental steps to reach those goals.
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Re: Duquette's goal is .500. What needs to be done to get there?

PostPost #10 by EddieEddieEddie » December 9th, 2011, 12:50 am

Sign 2 from the following list:
Harang
Jackson
Oswalt
Marquis
Vazquez
Garland
Maholm
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Re: Duquette's goal is .500. What needs to be done to get there?

PostPost #11 by Tucker Blair » December 9th, 2011, 12:31 pm

Don wrote:The Orioles need to make systematic steps, and that does include making it to .500

BUT

I absolutely hate to settle for anything and coming out to say we want to be .500 is not the direction you bring to placate the masses. You say we are here to win championships and will take the steps to reach that goal. Think big, but take the small incremental steps to reach those goals.

Great post, totally agree. Most realistic fans will understand that you usually do not jump from 69 to 90+ wins in one off-season with a club in such disarray.
It certainly is going to take incremental steps to get there. And going from 69 to 70-77 wins is not an incremental step in my opinion. The record at this point is a wash to me. The talent in the organization needs to change and become better. Those are the incremental steps that need to be taken and THEN we can worry about being .500 and better. But to say .500 is the goal is very depressing in certain aspects.
I hope that made some form of sense haha
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Re: Duquette's goal is .500. What needs to be done to get there?

PostPost #12 by ofahn » December 9th, 2011, 1:36 pm

TuckerBlair89 wrote:I hope that made some form of sense


At least it does to me.

After 14 years of frustration caused by really bad management I would LOVE to see this team win more games than it loses but NOT at the cost of building a winner. If you added a Prince Fielder and an Edwin Jackson you might win 85 games this year but what about 2013 or 2014? This team just doesn't have enough ML ready talent in its system to consistently improve over the next few years.

This site has a poster named A_K who has suggested we trade everyone and start over again. He makes good and well articulated case (his posts make good reading) but IMO he goes too far. We have some solid building blocks in Wieters and Britton. You need to build around something and I see those two as the best choices.

Dan Duquette has publicly stated that he wants to build around Wieters, Nick Markakis, and Adam Jones; and has also said he wants to hold onto the young pitchers. I'd like to keep those players too BUT when I look at our farm system I see almost no help coming before 2013 and nothing of real substance before 2014.

Markakis will almost certainly stay for awhile because he currently has almost no trade value. It's Jones that has me confused. This is a player that has exceptional trade value right now and may well be gone by 2014 when what little we have in the farm system arrives. Trading him now would bring at least one A and two B/B+ level prospects that would complement the Class of 2014. Add Hardy and Guthrie to the right deal and you could DOUBLE the number of B or higher rated prospects in our system. Would that equal a wining team this year or next? No, but most fans would be more excited by young TALENTED players giving everything they've got than a mixed bag of prospects, wannabes, and never has beens struggling towards a .500 record for the next four or five years.

It's easy to say that we'll add more farm depth under Duquette but that process normally takes about five years to see the full benefits. If that's the case then the Class of 2014 would have little support until 2017. That sounds like more hope rewarded with even greater disappointment.

I think the fans will give Duquette some rope if they see him as being honest about the state of the organization. Of course, he's already admitted that "We've got work to do. There's no question about it...", but he would probably gain a lot of credibility if he also said after a big trade to bring four or five solid prospects back that his review of the farm system indicated the team could not build a winner in the next few years unless it took a step back now.

Sure, some fans would be upset about "going in the wrong direction"; however, most others would feel good about this kind of move. Especially if the team were to invest in a Cespedes and/or Soler this winter to add to the talent base.

Buck Showalter is a good manager and I think he could win more games than he loses if he faced a lineup without a Guthrie, and a Cespedes replacing Jones and a Steve Lombardozzi replacing Hardy. Let's face it: the 2012 season will depend more on whether the young pitching takes a step forward than Adam Jones and JJ Hardy.

Agree? Disagree?
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Re: Duquette's goal is .500. What needs to be done to get there?

PostPost #13 by Matt P » December 11th, 2011, 11:09 pm

A lot more than adding Teagarden and Eveland.
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