Projected 2011 Rosters

[Jordan Tuwiner]

http://orioles-nation.com/rosters/

If a player isn't listed, it doesn't necessarily mean I believe he's going to get cut. With Bluefield no longer an affiliate it's hard to project cuts and there's no telling how many or which players will get cut.

Feel free to ask questions about any placements.

[PalmettoOsFan]

Jordan,

great stuff. Questions...

1.) Rowell as DH - is there no hope for him defensively?

2.) What happens next August when the O's sign 30-35 players? Do they have to cut people at Aberdeen? Or would they be assigned to an instructional league? Can you provide, someday, an overview of how the instructional team/league works? Are there roster limits? Are there limits to the number of times someone can be moved from Rookie ball (Aberdeen, GCL, DSL) to the instructional league?

3.) If Josh Bell makes the O's out of spring training, who will play 3rd for Norfolk?

4.) Once Zach gets called up, who drops out of the O's rotation? When do you expect Zach to get the call?

5.) Will Caleb see any time in the bigs in '11? Do you see a long-term role for Caleb with the O's or is he trade bait?

6.) Among our minor league teams, which starting five has the most potential to graduate a top-of-the order future pro (besides Britton) ?

7.) When do you see Avery as the full-time leadoff hitter for the O's (I'm assuming that is his future)? Will he be center or left field then? What will the O's do with Jones/Pie if he does earn a full time job?

8.) Have I exceeded the limit on questions?

Thanks. Being an O's fan is becoming enjoyable again.

Rich B.

[allstar1579]

Jordan,

great stuff. Questions...

1.) Rowell as DH - is there no hope for him defensively?

2.) What happens next August when the O's sign 30-35 players? Do they have to cut people at Aberdeen? Or would they be assigned to an instructional league? Can you provide, someday, an overview of how the instructional team/league works? Are there roster limits? Are there limits to the number of times someone can be moved from Rookie ball (Aberdeen, GCL, DSL) to the instructional league?

3.) If Josh Bell makes the O's out of spring training, who will play 3rd for Norfolk?

4.) Once Zach gets called up, who drops out of the O's rotation? When do you expect Zach to get the call?

5.) Will Caleb see any time in the bigs in '11? Do you see a long-term role for Caleb with the O's or is he trade bait?

6.) Among our minor league teams, which starting five has the most potential to graduate a top-of-the order future pro (besides Britton) ?

7.) When do you see Avery as the full-time leadoff hitter for the O's (I'm assuming that is his future)? Will he be center or left field then? What will the O's do with Jones/Pie if he does earn a full time job?

8.) Have I exceeded the limit on questions?

Thanks. Being an O's fan is becoming enjoyable again.

Rich B.

Not Jordan, but I'll have a go at it...

1. None at all, he's a butcher in the field at every position besides 3B and he's not very good there either.
2. Guys signed in AUG don't have to be assigned to a team, so some people just will do "instructionals" til the end of the season, some will move up and down based on attrition, and some will be injured or cut. They can't actually make rosters for Aberdeen until like July, so a bunch of those June picks will be there after they sign, the rest will play lower than that. It works out every year.
3. That's a big if, he is not the long term answer (sorry if I upset people with that one)
4. Depends on who's not performing, but I think it ends up Guthrie, Matusz, Jake A., Bergy, Tillman and then whoever isn't making that next step will go to the pen. Keep in mind they don't HAVE to promote ZB, so he could play all year in AAA, or there could be a trade that thins things out.
5. Unless there is a long injury, no. He's gotta finish working out his problems from this season. Would make a very solid backup for 2012 unless he forces his way up, but having 2 offensive catchers doesn't generally work well either.
6. Wow, that one is a bit loaded...as of this moment I'd say none of them. People throw around that TOR title a lot but people don't realize how rare it is in the minors. Most guys aren't one until they just make themselves one in the majors. There is some hope down in the lower levels, but it's not really worth debating until they show sustained success in Frederick and Bowie. ZB wasn't really touted until he did just that, he broke on to the scene last year and backed it up this year.
7. Avery is still years away, he was doing well in his cup of coffee in AA, but is earmarked to spend the entire year there this season, and will probably start AAA in 2012. He is so young there is no rush, he's also still kind of raw and has some stuff to work on, especially in the OF, needs to get better at running routes and anticipating. It'll come with time though. When the time comes, the Jones/Pie/Reimold situation will have worked itself out already between arbitration, trades, production and injuries.
8. Nope, but I had to go back and look at them over and over

P.S. I should get extra credit for this post, that was a lot of answers.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Jordan,

great stuff. Questions...

1.) Rowell as DH - is there no hope for him defensively?

2.) What happens next August when the O's sign 30-35 players? Do they have to cut people at Aberdeen? Or would they be assigned to an instructional league? Can you provide, someday, an overview of how the instructional team/league works? Are there roster limits? Are there limits to the number of times someone can be moved from Rookie ball (Aberdeen, GCL, DSL) to the instructional league?

3.) If Josh Bell makes the O's out of spring training, who will play 3rd for Norfolk?

4.) Once Zach gets called up, who drops out of the O's rotation? When do you expect Zach to get the call?

5.) Will Caleb see any time in the bigs in '11? Do you see a long-term role for Caleb with the O's or is he trade bait?

6.) Among our minor league teams, which starting five has the most potential to graduate a top-of-the order future pro (besides Britton) ?

7.) When do you see Avery as the full-time leadoff hitter for the O's (I'm assuming that is his future)? Will he be center or left field then? What will the O's do with Jones/Pie if he does earn a full time job?

8.) Have I exceeded the limit on questions?

Thanks. Being an O's fan is becoming enjoyable again.

Rich B.

1. I've seen him a bunch of times this season, and he's never looked comfortable at third. They already know he can't play outfield. He'll probably split time with Waring at third base, but I don't think the Orioles see him as a 3B going forward.

2. You're going to see the O's sign less players. You'll probably see them sign just 28-34 picks per season now, possibly less. I have a feeling a bunch of the guys I put at Aberdeen are going to get cut, and they'll have almost a whole team to fill (guys like Gaylord, etc.). Instructional league doesn't have strict rules. I'm pretty sure you can carry as many guys as you want. Most of the DSL guys won't touch the instructional league roster, aside from the Hector Veloz's etc. That's definitely something I can do in the future.

I have to run to the Maryland football game (season ticket holder, tailgating), but I'll answer the rest of your questions when I get back. There are no question limits around here!

[allstar1579]

Jordan,

great stuff. Questions...

1.) Rowell as DH - is there no hope for him defensively?

2.) What happens next August when the O's sign 30-35 players? Do they have to cut people at Aberdeen? Or would they be assigned to an instructional league? Can you provide, someday, an overview of how the instructional team/league works? Are there roster limits? Are there limits to the number of times someone can be moved from Rookie ball (Aberdeen, GCL, DSL) to the instructional league?

3.) If Josh Bell makes the O's out of spring training, who will play 3rd for Norfolk?

4.) Once Zach gets called up, who drops out of the O's rotation? When do you expect Zach to get the call?

5.) Will Caleb see any time in the bigs in '11? Do you see a long-term role for Caleb with the O's or is he trade bait?

6.) Among our minor league teams, which starting five has the most potential to graduate a top-of-the order future pro (besides Britton) ?

7.) When do you see Avery as the full-time leadoff hitter for the O's (I'm assuming that is his future)? Will he be center or left field then? What will the O's do with Jones/Pie if he does earn a full time job?

8.) Have I exceeded the limit on questions?

Thanks. Being an O's fan is becoming enjoyable again.

Rich B.

1. I've seen him a bunch of times this season, and he's never looked comfortable at third. They already know he can't play outfield. He'll probably split time with Waring at third base, but I don't think the Orioles see him as a 3B going forward.

2. You're going to see the O's sign less players. You'll probably see them sign just 28-34 picks per season now, possibly less. I have a feeling a bunch of the guys I put at Aberdeen are going to get cut, and they'll have almost a whole team to fill (guys like Gaylord, etc.). Instructional league doesn't have strict rules. I'm pretty sure you can carry as many guys as you want. Most of the DSL guys won't touch the instructional league roster, aside from the Hector Veloz's etc. That's definitely something I can do in the future.

I have to run to the Maryland football game (season ticket holder, tailgating), but I'll answer the rest of your questions when I get back. There are no question limits around here!

Have fun at the game man. I am on a strict limit for Football season since our 2nd kid is due any day now. Trying to save my one Terps game for Homecoming if I can.

[pitchmom]

[code][/code]Just wondering why the difference in these projected rosters and the projected pitching rotations from a few days ago?

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Have fun at the game man. I am on a strict limit for Football season since our 2nd kid is due any day now. Trying to save my one Terps game for Homecoming if I can.

Thanks! Congrats to you as well.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

3.) If Josh Bell makes the O's out of spring training, who will play 3rd for Norfolk?

4.) Once Zach gets called up, who drops out of the O's rotation? When do you expect Zach to get the call?

5.) Will Caleb see any time in the bigs in '11? Do you see a long-term role for Caleb with the O's or is he trade bait?

6.) Among our minor league teams, which starting five has the most potential to graduate a top-of-the order future pro (besides Britton) ?

7.) When do you see Avery as the full-time leadoff hitter for the O's (I'm assuming that is his future)? Will he be center or left field then? What will the O's do with Jones/Pie if he does earn a full time job?

8.) Have I exceeded the limit on questions?

Thanks. Being an O's fan is becoming enjoyable again.

Rich B.

3. If Bell make the O's out of spring training, I think you'll see Tyler Henson get some time at third base. Waring could get the nod, too, but I think he needs some more time at Bowie.

4. Brad Bergesen. The only problem with that is he just isn't a good arm for the bullpen. I'd give Britton at least 20 more starts at AAA, but I have a feeling the O's will give him 10-14 more starts before bringin him up, assuming he pitches well.

5. Depends on who our back up is at the start of the season. If it's an older guy we sign as a FA, I have a feeling we'll see Joseph later in the season. If it's a younger guy like Tatum or Fox, I don't think we'll see him.

6. Delmarva or Frederick. The only guy I see with true #1 potential is Cameron Coffey, but a bunch of guys with the Keys and Shorebirds have #2 potential - Wirsch, Bundy, Cowan, Klein, Hobgood.

7. I'll say late 2012, possibly earlier. Avery's a quick learner, and I really would not be surprised to see him have a monster 2011. Take a look at his stats from 2009 and compare them to his 2010 stats with Frederick -- major adjustments.

8. Like I said earlier, no question limits! Feel free to ask as many as you'd like.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

[code][/code]Just wondering why the difference in these projected rosters and the projected pitching rotations from a few days ago?

The pitching rotations from a few days were basically a rough draft. I changed the rosters around at least 10 more times after my initial set up.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Posted all of my answers before I read yours, looks like we have just about the same responses. One thing I'd like to agree with and touch up on...

6. Wow, that one is a bit loaded...as of this moment I'd say none of them. People throw around that TOR title a lot but people don't realize how rare it is in the minors. Most guys aren't one until they just make themselves one in the majors. There is some hope down in the lower levels, but it's not really worth debating until they show sustained success in Frederick and Bowie. ZB wasn't really touted until he did just that, he broke on to the scene last year and backed it up this year.

Perfectly summed up. Most of the top pitching prospects every year aren't even considered #1s going forward (Jeremy Hellickson, even Zach Britton). Tons of guys have #1 potential, but the chances of them reaching their potential is slim. At this point, coffey is the only player in the system we can say has true #1 potential, and even that may be a stretch, it's probably because so little is known about him at this point.

[allstar1579]

Posted all of my answers before I read yours, looks like we have just about the same responses. One thing I'd like to agree with and touch up on...

6. Wow, that one is a bit loaded...as of this moment I'd say none of them. People throw around that TOR title a lot but people don't realize how rare it is in the minors. Most guys aren't one until they just make themselves one in the majors. There is some hope down in the lower levels, but it's not really worth debating until they show sustained success in Frederick and Bowie. ZB wasn't really touted until he did just that, he broke on to the scene last year and backed it up this year.

Perfectly summed up. Most of the top pitching prospects every year aren't even considered #1s going forward (Jeremy Hellickson, even Zach Britton). Tons of guys have #1 potential, but the chances of them reaching their potential is slim. At this point, coffey is the only player in the system we can say has true #1 potential, and even that may be a stretch, it's probably because so little is known about him at this point.

Yep, well said. To put it another way guys taken all the way at the top of the draft, the only ones in the past 3 years that really look like #1s are Strasburg (assuming he can bounce back from the injury and still have the same arsenal, I question if he's going to lose some of his curve) and Taillon (and that's assuming he continues developing for 2-3 years).

I like the potential of Coffey, but this is the year he pops up on the radar for me, hoping for a big year for him.

I say all the time the difference between a #2 and a #1 is that a #1 will try to punch you when you try to take him out of a game, he wants the ball on 3 days rest when you are on a losing streak, and he gives you a chance to win EVERY time out. In other words a guy like Bedard is a #2, a guy like Halladay is a #1.

[cubscoutsrock54]

It's interesting that you have Mychal Givens listed as a 2B. If I recall correctly, his arm strength was one of his strengths going into the draft, no? Wouldn't a move to 2B sort of neutralize that?

[allstar1579]

It's interesting that you have Mychal Givens listed as a 2B. If I recall correctly, his arm strength was one of his strengths going into the draft, no? Wouldn't a move to 2B sort of neutralize that?

He doesn't have the range for SS, and his glove is kind of questionable so not so sure if 2B or 3B would work for him, they are kicking around the idea of moving him to CF, but some people think ultimately he's going to the bullpen. It'll be interesting to watch him, whatever he does for himself will depend on his bat.

[cubscoutsrock54]

It's interesting that you have Mychal Givens listed as a 2B. If I recall correctly, his arm strength was one of his strengths going into the draft, no? Wouldn't a move to 2B sort of neutralize that?

He doesn't have the range for SS, and his glove is kind of questionable so not so sure if 2B or 3B would work for him, they are kicking around the idea of moving him to CF, but some people think ultimately he's going to the bullpen. It'll be interesting to watch him, whatever he does for himself will depend on his bat.

I see. I would think 3B would be a better option than 2B if his glove is the question, from what I understand the corners are easier to pick up than the middle spots. Would the range concerns at SS be the same in CF? I guess you could put him at RF or something where he won't have as much ground to cover but his arm will still play. But then will his bat play at a corner OF spot? And as you said, he could just go back to pitching, but if he goes to the pen that makes him so much less valuable...

So many question marks with this kid...

[allstar1579]

It's interesting that you have Mychal Givens listed as a 2B. If I recall correctly, his arm strength was one of his strengths going into the draft, no? Wouldn't a move to 2B sort of neutralize that?

He doesn't have the range for SS, and his glove is kind of questionable so not so sure if 2B or 3B would work for him, they are kicking around the idea of moving him to CF, but some people think ultimately he's going to the bullpen. It'll be interesting to watch him, whatever he does for himself will depend on his bat.

I see. I would think 3B would be a better option than 2B if his glove is the question, from what I understand the corners are easier to pick up than the middle spots. Would the range concerns at SS be the same in CF? I guess you could put him at RF or something where he won't have as much ground to cover but his arm will still play. But then will his bat play at a corner OF spot? And as you said, he could just go back to pitching, but if he goes to the pen that makes him so much less valuable...

So many question marks with this kid...

3B you have to have a strong arm, thats a req. without a strong arm they generally get shifted to 1B early on. The corners get labeled as "easier" to play, but you actually have to have kind of a specific skill set, much better first step and reaction speed, so you can't just generally move guys around the INF til they find a spot. The one plus he's got going for him is his arm strength, but his footwork and his glove make him questionable for 3B or 2B. I'd try him at 2B first personally, because I don't think he's got the first step to play a corner spot.

INF range and OF range are different animals, I wish there was a different name for the 2. In the INF you have about 3-4 steps of range max, and a big key to it is how fast your first one is. In the OF you have time to use raw speed and close gaps to make up for not getting a good jump or read on the ball, thats why guys like Crawford, and Avery will get moved out there because they are so fast, and guys like Jones who don't have a good glove but have good speed to make up for it will get moved to CF. He's got the speed to have great range in CF, but you're right the bat won't play on the corners. I think he ends up something of a Chone Figgins UTL guy in the ML best case, and worst case he moves back to the pen and throws 96mph in relief.