New CBA

[Zach]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/dr ... 12639.html

I have only had a chance to briefly glance at this article and some of the analysis on it, but i think that some of the changes might hurt the Orioles. The earlier signing date should help them and only protecting the top 10 picks shouldn't really hurt with the trends of this team, but I worry about the limits on spending for the draft. This seems like it could hurt smaller market teams that have to build through the draft like the orioles. Also, I wish that trading draft picks was going to be included as it would bring more excitement to the draft, but haven't seen it mentioned anywhere. What do you guys think of the changes?

[thezeroes]

From the article you linked:
"Under the new system, each club will get an aggregate bonus pool for the first 10 rounds of the draft, based on all of its picks—each of which will be assigned a value. While clubs will not be required to stick to the value of each pick, they will be expected to come in under the overall budget number."

****
So in the first ten rounds I see teams drafting for signability with about half of the picks and the other half will get overslot money. The over slot players will be the talent side of things. The "Signability" players will be the 5 year college players that have to sign or sit out a year to become Free Agents or injured/rehab players with some potential.

[Don]

If you see a media lamb basting it, they have no clue... there is no run for the hills because this is all knee jerk reactionary tactics...

There are things that many of my peers in the industry do not see fit for their organization, but nothing that has them changing anything...

I have said it almost a thousand times to so many people that have asked me on twitter, email, etc....

All this does is force guys like me to work harder to get a better read on what it takes to sign, find hidden talent...You will watch, rank, talk, rank again, and do everything that a scout will normally do...

If this hurts an organization, it is their own crappy fault for poor evaluations, poor communications, etc...

The one thing I truly laugh at is everyone saying this will do this, this will do that... I want those same people to start buying lottery tickets and give me the numbers for their prognostications!

[ofahn]

If this hurts an organization, it is their own crappy fault for poor evaluations, poor communications, etc...

... and failure to invest enough resources in scouting. Scouting and talent evaluation are the primary reasons that Tampa keeps putting a solid product on the field each year.

[BuckMagic]

So Don, would you say the an increase in coaches would be a prime way to start better converting prospects?

[BuckMagic]

So couldn't teams just go out and get a bunch of slight upside guys for $99,000 after the 10th round?

[ofahn]

So couldn't teams just go out and get a bunch of slight upside guys for $99,000 after the 10th round?

As I understand it there is NO limit on what you can spend after the 10th round. If that's the case then the 11th round could have as much talent as the second and you could see as much money spent.

Has anyone seen anything that contradicts that?

[Don]

Whether you have 10 or 15 picks in the first ten rounds, each is assigned a "value". All of these put together will give you the value that you have to spend out of these picks. One dollar over that amount is progressively taxed. You can spend all of that money on one player, 5 players, or every player in that bracket.

After round 10, you can do as you please....but....

Any player drafted between the 11th round and closing of the draft has to be paid under at or under a 100k. If it is one dollar over that amount, the player and his contract are placed in that "value" and subjected to progressive penalties.

[Don]

So couldn't teams just go out and get a bunch of slight upside guys for $99,000 after the 10th round?

In theory yes, but that total is a lot of money that would not be in the top 200 players. It is just guys that have talent and you see something in them to keep the kid from going to JUCO or 4 year schools. Keep JUCO keeps from going to a 4 year school and so forth...

Most after the ten round do not get high bonuses unless they were talented players that dropped for one reason or another...

It will take a few seasons to see whether the top 300 all get drafted in the first ten rounds, as this was one of the thing that some feel might happen.

I do not think this will be a problem for the smart organizations, it just makes a few tweaks here or there and how you plan to draft, not who you draft...

[Don]

... and failure to invest enough resources in scouting. Scouting and talent evaluation are the primary reasons that Tampa keeps putting a solid product on the field each year.

Yes, it is not about how much you put into it. It can also be about who you put into it to find these guys. There are so many places and nooks for talented players can be found. If you have a robust department with double the resources of your competition, you are likely to find that extra player or two a season that can make a serious difference in the success of your operations.

My best finds have been late gut instincts. I feel better about my late flyer's then I ever do about my reports on the "it" guys.

[Rising O's]

The penalty for going over 100k sounds problematic and potentially ripe for collusion

[DougDE]

The one thing I truly laugh at is everyone saying this will do this, this will do that... I want those same people to start buying lottery tickets and give me the numbers for their prognostications

I think this all the time when I hear the talking heads. One thing I think they got right is teams not receiving another teams 1st round pick for losing a reliever. Thats been a pet peeve of mine for several years now. Relievers arent worth 1st round compensation

[Zach]

While I know Don warned against reading the media people's reaction to this I thought Stark at least presented a lot of the details and does a fairly good job of keeping a somewhat objective view. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/72702 ... storic-one. I hadn't seen the thing about the top 15 markets before.

[Don]

I have given one example of high priced and pre-made deals for College Senior, Juniors who clearly want to go, and JUCO guys with upside that want to go now...

Good teams will be crafty mixing the talent base. Simply see one or two high priced talented guys and a litter of market draft value guys mixed in.... it still provides value...

maybe you go nuts for 5 guys over trying to sign 10 in the first ten rounds, find gems later in the draft that have upside...

There are so many ways to skin this cat. The money that is going to be allocated for each team will be somewhere between 1.5 to 2.0 of the previous slot recommendations... so the money will be their to find talent....you just cannot work the system and tell 29 teams you want 6 million and sign for 4 million as a 4th round draft pick....I absolutely hated these shady practices to pigeon hole yourself to one team. This tactic was not a Yankee or Red Sox team, look at the landscape the last three years and see the teams that did the "wink, wink, handshake agreements"

[Don]

I continue to stress that no one knows what the future will hold, but I have one of the final copies in my hand.

The Orioles would not have been subjected to any clause this past season. I am not quite sure until the exact number comes out, but were 250k to 500k below the value set for them.

What was really wrong with this past draft. They have three high school kids with high ceilings, a few power arms that will beef up the upper level of the system and a number of raw kids with some nice upside. If they do this year in and year out, they are fine.