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Is WAR (Wins Above Replacement) Accurate?

Re: Is WAR (Wins Above Replacement) Accurate?

PostPost #16 by Jordan Tuwiner » October 15th, 2011, 11:19 am

A_K wrote:
BuckMagic wrote:Does anyone know if organizations use WAR, or something similar?

I recently read something about use of statistics within MLB front offices and it appears 10 or 12 use a ton of statistics when evaluating players. Wondering if WAR is among them.


My understanding is that virtually every team uses WAR as a primary statistical indicator.

The figure I think you're mentioning is the 10-12 teams that are considerably more statistically inclined than other teams, having developed their own proprietary statistics and making decisions based upon those moreso than would be traditionally expected.

That would make sense. It would not surprise me if WAR was used but teams had different ways of evaluating the defensive and pitching sides of it.
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Re: Is WAR (Wins Above Replacement) Accurate?

PostPost #17 by Don » October 26th, 2011, 12:12 pm

Remember that Stats do not lie, statisticians do.

Stats are the bare numbers, but can be twisted and manipulated to fit in the box you desire with a bit of effort. I think WAR is a solid cross grid comparison, but each team weighs certain factors more than others based on many variables. No two teams have the same formula and each uses the stats in their fashion to a different outcome.

I always say that you must use a rounded approach at any time. The eye never lies and you must pass the eyeball test before anything else.

Look by the numbers Prince may project to leap and bounds numbers for 6-7 years, but one look at the body type and it might make you curb your approach about what to expect when he is 32 years old and could fall off the ledge. The numbers on a pitcher can look great, but how does his style play. Will his mechanics hold up?

There are so many grouped stats that can show one player is better than another and you can use this to justify your eyes, but any sport has to be your gut and the stats should be used to support it.

This is my opinion and take it for what it is worth.
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Re: Is WAR (Wins Above Replacement) Accurate?

PostPost #18 by A_K » October 26th, 2011, 4:44 pm

Don, I'm in general agreement that no one should make decisions based entirely on statistics, and that a rounded approach that includes conventional scouting is necessary to project the future of any baseball player.

But you cannot possibly mean to say this:

The eye never lies and you must pass the eyeball test before anything else.


The baseball landscape is littered with the tired carcasses of former prospects who passed the eye ball test but couldn't hack it in the majors. The eye lies with regularity. It's essential, sure, but it isn't infallible.
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Re: Is WAR (Wins Above Replacement) Accurate?

PostPost #19 by Don » October 26th, 2011, 10:42 pm

I am just saying that is the foundation for an free agent acquisition, trade chip, minor league evaluation, and amateur evaluation.
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Re: Is WAR (Wins Above Replacement) Accurate?

PostPost #20 by thezeroes » October 27th, 2011, 4:28 pm

Don wrote:I am just saying that is the foundation for an free agent acquisition, trade chip, minor league evaluation, and amateur evaluation.


The eye test (his hustle, sound of hits off his bat, his speed, ability to comprehend instruction, etc...) his Defensive WAR (-0.4 = 15 errors in 126 games) and Offensive WAR (6.2) for Jose Reyes in 2011 would seem to pass both tests BUT who is his replacement for the 36 games he missed with injury ?? (Durability) I agree that more needs to go into attracting/signing players than a stat line or an eye ball test. So IMO WAR is not the end all of stats but a starting point and the eye ball furthers the discussion.
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Re: Is WAR (Wins Above Replacement) Accurate?

PostPost #21 by Jordan Tuwiner » November 3rd, 2011, 7:10 pm

thezeroes wrote: So IMO WAR is not the end all of stats but a starting point and the eye ball furthers the discussion.

That's similar to my view as well. It's a stat that should be used as a guideline until the defensive and pitching parts are proved to be more accurate. Plus, it'd be silly to argue that a 6.0 WAR player is better than a 6.3 WAR player. That's when you can use the eyeball test.
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Re: Is WAR (Wins Above Replacement) Accurate?

PostPost #22 by Don » November 3rd, 2011, 9:44 pm

After what I experienced today, I will only re-affirm my thought that stats and other metrics are used a great deal in the weight of trades and free agent signings. If a player fits into the mold, it then refers to the scouts to see if what was in the picture was due to outlining factors, etc....

It is still not the driving force for minor and amateur ranks and focus is on the tools, projection, and intangibles. I have said this a few times, but minor leagues are forced to work on things in season and it skews stats to no end.
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