O's MUST sign Yu Darvish

[ofahn]

I would rather spend the STUPID amount of money that this ONE player would cost on the next five years worth of drafting and international players. It would equal MANY more wins.

[A_K]

For the cost of the posting fee alone, the Orioles could sign 111 Hector Velozes.

[ofahn]

Or 17 Miguel Sanos, or 10 Machados, or 12 Dylan Bundys. The list goes on and on.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Looking at Japanese transitions to the MLB: http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2011/10 ... ce-to.html

[Rising O's]

Well as I said, if he ends up costing 70-80 million the Orioles should be in on the bidding and should have a legitimate chance of winning. Its the only market where Angelo's money is good and can bring in a young international pitcher who can add some legitimacy to this moribund franchise.

If signing one free agent for 14-16 million a year prevents the Orioles from drafting and signing the best rule 4 players, and being active on the international market, then I say again, what is the point in rooting for this organization?

We need pitching, Darvish looks good and his style is a good fit for Camden Yards. I know no one wants to repeat the free agent failings of the past 4 years under MacPhail. A lot of bad money was spent by him the last two years. Gonzalez 6, Lee 8+, Gregg 5, Atkins 5, Guerrero 8. Here is the opportunity to use that money on a young pitcher instead of wasting it on these old, or marginal players. You can pay 45% of such a deal by just getting rid of/not signing a Luke Scott type.

With Epstein going to Chicago that is another team that will likely bid Darvish up.

[thezeroes]

A lot of bad money was spent by him the last two years. Gonzalez 6, Lee 8+, Gregg 5, Atkins 5, Guerrero 8.

Sometimes it is not the bad money that was spent but the bad money that was NOT spent.
Adam Dunn (14), Aubrey Huff (11), Adam Laroche (8), Miguel Tejada(6.5) etc... Half full or half empty.

[A_K]

Well as I said, if he ends up costing 70-80 million the Orioles should be in on the bidding and should have a legitimate chance of winning. Its the only market where Angelo's money is good and can bring in a young international pitcher who can add some legitimacy to this moribund franchise.

If signing one free agent for 14-16 million a year prevents the Orioles from drafting and signing the best rule 4 players, and being active on the international market, then I say again, what is the point in rooting for this organization?

We need pitching, Darvish looks good and his style is a good fit for Camden Yards. I know no one wants to repeat the free agent failings of the past 4 years under MacPhail. A lot of bad money was spent by him the last two years. Gonzalez 6, Lee 8+, Gregg 5, Atkins 5, Guerrero 8. Here is the opportunity to use that money on a young pitcher instead of wasting it on these old, or marginal players. You can pay 45% of such a deal by just getting rid of/not signing a Luke Scott type.

With Epstein going to Chicago that is another team that will likely bid Darvish up.

I don't grasp why the economic realities of baseball would make rooting for the Orioles any less appealing. I'd sure have had a fun last few years rooting for this team if our results looked a lot more like the hopelessly small market Rays, and yet they're even more restrained from making headline-grabbing signings than we are.

There isn't an unlimited budget, not for the Orioles and not for the Yankees. Every team has a different budget, but every team HAS a budget. Therefore, for every team, dollars are finite. Money spent on one player is necessarily money not spend on someone else. So the question isn't whether an Orioles decision not to spend $80 million on a single pitcher while they're coming off a 95-loss season makes rooting for this team pointless, but whether or not common sense says a 95-loss team can maximize its return on $80 million by spending it on one pitcher, or by spreading it around to a few dozen 18 year old prospects. In my opinion, we are guaranteed to lose more than 90 games and finish in last place with or without Yu Darvish. So why not use the money to sign some guys who could actually make a difference at some point in the future?

Accepting reality isn't the same as defeatism.

[Zach]

I think that instead of signing a risk like Durvish, the Orioles should go after Oswalt. He knows what it takes to win and is still a bulldog on the mound. The Phillies declined his option making him a free agent. This would be an ideal fit for the Orioles. It is not a filler like Kevin Millwood who is solely there for innings, but instead has a legitimate shot of competing. He is a short term fix, unlike Durvish, which means that he would not block the way for some of the younger pitchers we have (bundy brothers, possibly Klein?, etc...). He could also mentor the pitchers that we have (i.e. Kevin Gregg effect without the headaches of Kevin Gregg pitching).

[OriolesRedskins28]

I think that instead of signing a risk like Durvish, the Orioles should go after Oswalt. He knows what it takes to win and is still a bulldog on the mound. The Phillies declined his option making him a free agent. This would be an ideal fit for the Orioles. It is not a filler like Kevin Millwood who is solely there for innings, but instead has a legitimate shot of competing. He is a short term fix, unlike Durvish, which means that he would not block the way for some of the younger pitchers we have (bundy brothers, possibly Klein?, etc...). He could also mentor the pitchers that we have (i.e. Kevin Gregg effect without the headaches of Kevin Gregg pitching).

I like that, Oswalt does seem like a nice fit for those reasons. A positive is he's pitched in hitter's parks his entire career (Astros and Phillies) so Camden Yards might not effect his numbers too badly. A negative would be he's never pitched in the AL let alone the AL East which may be a tough transition. Also has back issues, but a 2-3 year deal for 8-11 million a year would be fine with me. Especially if he has a good work ethic and keeps himself in good shape. As Jordan has said it seems like a few of the Orioles young pitchers (Matusz and Tillman especially) have not kept themselves in good shape so another positive influence in that department certainly wouldn't hurt.

[A_K]

35 years old. What's the point?

[Rising O's]

The only hope is the new GM radically changes how the Orioles operate. We have not spent millions on overslot draft picks. We have ignored the international market almost completely. Is the history of this franchise under Peter suddenly not fact? The contracts handed out the last few years I believe indicates the ability for us to be both aggressive with choice free agents and draft players who are going to cost more to sign in the draft.

For me Darvish is choice grade A prime for a variety of reasons. The only real question for me is how expensive the posting process will be. O's put their bid in for a reasonable amount so that the average salary of 5 years is affordable. If they win great, if not because the desperadoes go crazy, then O well. 70 million over 5 is about what I would like to see them do.

[Rising O's]

Oswalt is great and all but offers no long term potential and his back injuries could have him on the DL too much. Not worth it.
If we're going to spend the money, spend it on someone with great upside and a longer term future.

[Don]

I would be highly skeptical to bring anyone into the fold without setting one foot into a US style throwing program. I will strongly think that his 5 day outing will decrease his stuff to the point where he becomes a liability who has to face three of the strongest offensive units in baseball for almost 60 games. A 90-92 mph wit may not be enough and allow batters to sit on his off speed and still catch up to the fastball.

I polled a number of people at WWBA and they think his posting fee is going to be 70-80 million and this is on top of any signed deal. He may take less money to pitch in a large market with exposure to make up the dollars in Japan, but it might be top dollar to go to the Baltimore Orioles or other type of teams.

I have serious doubt that he can maintain a pace for 1 or 2 starter in a top tier division. I just find it useful to fund that money into other players or build that into the organization. Yu might have a great two years pushing 3.0 - 5.0 WAR values, but what happens when he starts to ride off into the 1.5 to 2.0 WAR pitcher.

I said it once and will repeat. No Japanese pitch has seen long term success. Some have come out the gates blazing and fell off the planet with arm troubles. Some of looked like All-Star with mediocre results sandwiched with a mini late career revival. Some have no clue and never should have pitched here in the first place.

I think he can make in the US, but that is a lot to swallow for $160 million dollar experiment that has as much risk as it does reward.

If you want my honest opinion, find ways to improve the defense and provide a constant bat this is not streaky. If these two things are resolved, it does a heck of a lot more over a risky pitcher. I would rather spend money on the mechanically challenged CJ Wilson, if it were my club over Darvish.

[ofahn]

If we're going to spend money on "free" agents let's concentrate on on short term deals for players that will fill immediate needs and that we can convert into prospects. What we don't spend on over priced franchise killers we can spend on player development.

[ofahn]

spreading it around to a few dozen 18 year old prospects

I can understand your desire to bring in high upside prospevts but I don't understand your fixation on "18 year old" ones. Just because a player is 18 does not necessarily mean he's a better prospect than a 21 year old college player.

I was opposed to choosing Hobgood with the first pick of 2009 NOT because he was a bad choice, but because we had our choice of some very good college pitchers that would have cost us more but would have been MLB ready in a few years. Mike Leake and Mike Minor were two good examples. At the time our upper level pitching prospects were Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman, and Bergesen. Some people saw that as the rotation of the future and didn't see a need to focus on near MLB ready pitching. History continues to teach us that one of every two upper level "can't miss" pitching prospects actually DO MISS. Of those four pitchers which ones would you bet your mortgage payment on will be a productive member of the 2012 rotation?

We may have selected the best pitching prospect of the 2011 draft in Dylan Bundy. That being said, I would have chosen Danny Hultzen if he was available because he will probably be ready to start in the ML at some point in 2012. A reasonable schedule for Bundy is late 2013 or 2014. The Orioles go into next season looking for pitching as usual with very little in the upper minors to fill the need. Until we have a solid and reliable rotation of pitchers under thirty AND some quality pitching prospects in AAA waiting for their shot at the majors, I think we should focus on the best quality college pitchers available that have a reasonable chance to be productive in the starting rotation within a year or so of being drafted. If you have enough quality pitching to spare you can always trade for something better.