Would You Trade Adam Jones For …….?

[ofahn]

How about a little George Allen, "the future is now."

That's only true if you are already close to being a winner. This team is only close to being a non loser. If we trade away the future for an 85 win team in 2012, what will 2014 look like?

[ofahn]

The reports out of San Francisco are that GIants would like to sign Beltran and Reyes but won't have the money. That would seem to make Hardy and Jones even more valuable to them right now if they accept that their window to win will close in 2013.

We match up well with them and there's a deal to made here if our new GM has the vision to see it. It may be an interesting winter.

[A_K]

The reports out of San Francisco are that GIants would like to sign Beltran and Reyes but won't have the money. That would seem to make Hardy and Jones even more valuable to them right now if they accept that their window to win will close in 2013.

We match up well with them and there's a deal to made here if our new GM has the vision to see it. It may be an interesting winter.

My understanding is that the Giants farm system is largely bare after the Beltran trade. Would they really be able to put together enough of a package to get Hardy and Jones at once, or would they have to involve a third team somehow?

[ofahn]

If I were the O's I'd ask for Bumgarner, Brown, Surkamp, and one more. Bumgarner is the only one that comes off of their 25 man roster and is from their strength, pitching.

Is it a lot to give up? Sure, but the Giants will have to decide if they want to win now.

[Don]

It is a little much to ask for one of the premium commodities such as young pitchers with proven track records and top tier prospects for a guy who can be a free agent in the horizon and would be better served switching to a corner outfield spot.

I do not think Adam Jones has that high of a value on the open market. Pitchers command a kings ransom and they would likely ask for additional pieces for any Madison Bumgarner.

[ofahn]

I was suggesting Jones AND Hardy.

[OriolesRedskins28]

It is a little much to ask for one of the premium commodities such as young pitchers with proven track records and top tier prospects for a guy who can be a free agent in the horizon and would be better served switching to a corner outfield spot.

I do not think Adam Jones has that high of a value on the open market. Pitchers command a kings ransom and they would likely ask for additional pieces for any Madison Bumgarner.

Do you think they could get a similar package to the one Houston got for Pence?

[ofahn]

Most of the nationaly recognized pundits have the Giants, Braves, and Nationals looking for BOTH a SS and a CF. As long as Hardy does not have those teams as one of the eight he can refuse a trade to we have what they want at an affordable (money) price.

I still think the Giants match up best. Looking at their roster and how long they control their key players I think they have to focus on winning in 2012 or 2013 or blow up the team and rebuild with prospects. If they were going to do the latter they would not have traded Zach Wheeler this summer.

There's no question that Bumgarner (and package) is a HUGE price to give up, even for Jones and Hardy, but pitching is the one thing they can afford for the hitting they so desperately need. Bumgarner is a great talent and most likely a future legitimate ace but he's the third best pitcher on that team right now. Besides, this is a team that could actually attract a Mark Buerlhe or a Roy Oswalt to fill Bumgarner's spot.

As a GM do you want to invest over 100M in a Jose Reyes knowing that you will be doing a rebuild in 2014? I think that SF has learned their lesson after Zito and Rowand.

I can understand Buck not wanting to lose two nuggets in Jones and Hardy but acquiring Bumgarner, Brown, and at least one more solid prospect is the right move to make.We need to look at 2014 for the next playoff contender and this trade would help make that happen.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Just spoke with a rival scout who "would like to see Jones in his team's uniform". The scout also said he "really likes" Jones and that "he has lots of room for improvement".

I'm in the process of speaking with other scouts, but Jones does have some good trade value if the Orioles want to deal him.

[ofahn]

Here is a CSN Baltimore story discussing the pros and cons of trading Jones. http://www.csnbaltimore.com/11/12/11/Should-the-Orioles-trade-Adam-Jones/landing.html?blockID=592832&feedID=6876

[Zach]

Im just still not sure we have the replacement to make this move the right move right now (barring an offer that really blows us out of the water). I am not sold on Angle and the talk being posted on Jones shows just how valuable a piece he is and is projected to be. If we want to be contenders even if a couple of years down the road we have to stop this trend of trading core young players for more prospects. I am personally sick of being the farm system for the rest of the majors.

[ofahn]

Im just still not sure we have the replacement to make this move the right move right now (barring an offer that really blows us out of the water). I am not sold on Angle and the talk being posted on Jones shows just how valuable a piece he is and is projected to be. If we want to be contenders even if a couple of years down the road we have to stop this trend of trading core young players for more prospects. I am personally sick of being the farm system for the rest of the majors.

I agree with everything you said BUT we have gone through a thirteen year period where our farm system has not been given the resources to provide enough players to build a winning team. You need young talent to be successful. How do you acquire that talent?

Buying players through the draft is the most proven and efficient method but it's not retroactive and it takes about five years to show the results. Even if we would have started to spend what was needed to rebuild this team in the 2008 draft we couldn't expect to get the most out of those players until the 2013 season. Since this team STILL isn't spending what's necessary for the draft, that five year project will have to start in 2012 with those players making a full contribution in about 2017.

"Free" agents are another way to add talent but it is probably the least efficient, and one bad contract (8 years and 200M) can destroy a mid level market team like ours. Let's face it, when you buy a "free" agent you're paying him for what he was, not what he will be. IMO this method should almost always be avoided, with some rare exceptions.

Another method for adding talent is the international draft. This can supplement the draft and occasionally can add MLB ready talent right away. It's expensive but it can allow a team that has neglected its farm system (like our's) to rebuild faster IF it's willing to spend the money.

The last method is by making well researched trades. Sometimes you have to give up quality players to fill multiple holes, and this team has LOTS of holes. Again, IMO, if we can trade an Adam Jones for two MLB ready pitchers and another quality prospect you do it even if you have to fill Jones' spot with a player (Angle) that would be a fourth OF on a winning team. If this team is willing to spend 20 to 30M on Yoenis Cespedes we may have a player similar to Jones available for late 2012 or early 2013. If Peter Angelos is SERIOUS about allowing Dan Duquette to build a winner then he is going to have to spend what's necessary to make that happen.

[BuckMagic]

Unfortunately Angelos is still hesitant to deal with any international markets and we sohuld not even be talking about Cespedes. No chance!

Hopefully Duquette can help on that front though.

[ofahn]

Unfortunately Angelos is still hesitant to deal with any international markets

As an attorney Angelos is trained to deal with facts to reach conclusions.

FACT: We haven't had a winning season since 1997.

FACT: Angelos is still hesitant to deal with any international markets.

CONCLUSION: The two facts equal cause and effect.

[Zach]

Correlation does not equal causation. Our lack of heavy participation in the international markets (which has been more than some people think i.e. uehara, shoop, many gulf coast pitchers) is just a symptom of the overall problem with the franchise. We have not utilized our resources in an effective manner whether that be with free agents (fill in Atkins joke) or with the development of our prospects. The failure of our headliner prospects to become as successful as advertised is a result of poor development which is a bigger cause of our lack of winning seasons.