Would You Trade Adam Jones For …….?

[Jordan Tuwiner]

It's a limited no trade clause:
mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/baltimore-orioles_112321768568552760.html

3 years/$22.25M (2012-14)

signed extension with Baltimore 7/17/11
$1.25M signing bonus
12:$7M, 13:$7M, 14:$7M
2013, 2014 salaries both increase by $0.5M with All-Star, Silver Slugger or top 10 in MVP vote in 2012
2014 salary increases by $1M with All-Star, Silver Slugger or top 10 in MVP vote in 2012 and 2013
limited no-trade protection (may block deals to 8 clubs)
$0.25M assignment bonus if traded

[ofahn]

Thanks for the info. He's still trade-able. I'd be curious as to which teams he has on his list.

[Matt P]

The Orioles have one of the top SS in all of baseball after being abysmal at the position for years and you want him traded? It will never make any sense to me why people want Hardy traded.

[OriolesRedskins28]

The Orioles have one of the top SS in all of baseball after being abysmal at the position for years and you want him traded? It will never make any sense to me why people want Hardy traded.

Because the Orioles aren't ready to contend so his production isn't really that important to them. His skills will only deteriorate over the last two years of the contract, he may be blocking Machado at the end of his contract, and he could bring back some legit prospects who may actually be able to contribute to the next winning Orioles team. That being said, it is nice to have a great all around SS with a professional attitude and approach so personally I would be happy either way, but there definitely is an argument for trading him.

[A_K]

The Orioles have one of the top SS in all of baseball after being abysmal at the position for years and you want him traded? It will never make any sense to me why people want Hardy traded.

Because we're terrible, not remotely close to being anything other than terrible, and will be nothing but terrible for every day that our SS is on the team. There is nothing that could ever possibly happen to make us competitive during thhe three years in which Hardy is under contract. That beinng the case, why not trade him for some 18 year olds on minor league contracts?

[Matt P]

The Orioles have one of the top SS in all of baseball after being abysmal at the position for years and you want him traded? It will never make any sense to me why people want Hardy traded.

Because we're terrible, not remotely close to being anything other than terrible, and will be nothing but terrible for every day that our SS is on the team. There is nothing that could ever possibly happen to make us competitive during thhe three years in which Hardy is under contract. That beinng the case, why not trade him for some 18 year olds on minor league contracts?

The team isn't terrible, the starting pitching is. If the O's can sign a starter or two this off season that can pitch well next season the team isn't that far off from a .500 season. Britton is going to get better, Arrieta was looking good before he started to have arm troubles, and Guthrie is fine. Hardy is incredible defensively and pretty solid offensively as well. He shouldn't be batting lead off or even 2nd in the order but anywhere from 5-9 he is perfect. Chances are even if we did land 2 or 3 highly ranked 18 year olds they wouldn't amount to anything close to what Hardy currently is.

[Matt P]

The Orioles have one of the top SS in all of baseball after being abysmal at the position for years and you want him traded? It will never make any sense to me why people want Hardy traded.

Because the Orioles aren't ready to contend so his production isn't really that important to them. His skills will only deteriorate over the last two years of the contract, he may be blocking Machado at the end of his contract, and he could bring back some legit prospects who may actually be able to contribute to the next winning Orioles team. That being said, it is nice to have a great all around SS with a professional attitude and approach so personally I would be happy either way, but there definitely is an argument for trading him.

If Machado forces his way to Baltimore before Hardy's contract is up it's as easy as moving Hardy to 2nd or 3rd whichever they feel he is better suited for. Or, they can trade him at that time. To want to trade him now because of a 19 year old kid in A ball is ridiculous. There's no telling how he will pan out.

[A_K]

The Orioles have one of the top SS in all of baseball after being abysmal at the position for years and you want him traded? It will never make any sense to me why people want Hardy traded.

Because we're terrible, not remotely close to being anything other than terrible, and will be nothing but terrible for every day that our SS is on the team. There is nothing that could ever possibly happen to make us competitive during thhe three years in which Hardy is under contract. That beinng the case, why not trade him for some 18 year olds on minor league contracts?

The team isn't terrible, the starting pitching is. If the O's can sign a starter or two this off season that can pitch well next season the team isn't that far off from a .500 season. Britton is going to get better, Arrieta was looking good before he started to have arm troubles, and Guthrie is fine. Hardy is incredible defensively and pretty solid offensively as well. He shouldn't be batting lead off or even 2nd in the order but anywhere from 5-9 he is perfect. Chances are even if we did land 2 or 3 highly ranked 18 year olds they wouldn't amount to anything close to what Hardy currently is.

There's no question that any prospects received for Hardy would have a high likelihood of failure. After all, if it was certain that they'd succeed, teams wouldn't trade them in the first place. It goes without saying that trading for prospects is trading for uncertainty. That's a feature, not a bug.

What would be so great about a .500 season? Assuming that we're really two quality starting pitchers away from being there (which I don't think is true, but for the sake of argument, let's pretend it is), what would be so great about reaching that mystical number? In all likelihood, we'd still finish in last or second to last in the division. We'd still miss the playoffs. Attendance would remain low. Ultimately, what would that accomplish?

And running with your hypothetical, how exactly are we going to "sign a starter or two this off season that can pitch well next season"? Where are we finding these starters? How much will they be paid? How does that affect the resources we can provide to other parts of the organization? Is it a guarantee that Guthrie and Britton and Arrieta will perform well enough to supplement these two new starters well enough that we can reach this 81 win goal?

The only teams in all of baseball that might be worse than us are the Astros and Pirates. We're mediocre offensively, bad defensively, terrible at pitching, and don't have a good farm system to change any of those things. Why would we think that free agent spending will change our fortunes? How well has that worked in recent years? At what point do we all accept reality and admit that, yes, we are in fact terrible, and the only solution is to start from scratch?

The goal is to buy low and sell high. We succeeded in buying Hardy at an extreme low. Chances are he just played the best season of his career. Instead of completing the transactional cycle and selling him at that high point, we instead gave him a contract extension, thus giving us a good SS for our next three 95-loss seasons. What is the point? Why do we bother with these temporary fixes? How long can fans continue to be clueless about the reality of our situation?

You are caught up on the "uncertainty" of prospects that might be returned in a trade. Virtually everything in baseball is uncertain. What teams do is weigh the likelihood of one outcome versus the likelihood of another outcome to make their decisions. Risk vs reward. The closest thing we have to a certainty in our current situation is the overall state of the Baltimore Orioles. That is, it's virtually certain that we're a terrible, god awful team with no credible reason to expect improvement.

[OriolesRedskins28]

The Orioles have one of the top SS in all of baseball after being abysmal at the position for years and you want him traded? It will never make any sense to me why people want Hardy traded.

Because the Orioles aren't ready to contend so his production isn't really that important to them. His skills will only deteriorate over the last two years of the contract, he may be blocking Machado at the end of his contract, and he could bring back some legit prospects who may actually be able to contribute to the next winning Orioles team. That being said, it is nice to have a great all around SS with a professional attitude and approach so personally I would be happy either way, but there definitely is an argument for trading him.

If Machado forces his way to Baltimore before Hardy's contract is up it's as easy as moving Hardy to 2nd or 3rd whichever they feel he is better suited for. Or, they can trade him at that time. To want to trade him now because of a 19 year old kid in A ball is ridiculous. There's no telling how he will pan out.

Machado absolutely should be a consideration. It's not that easy to just shove Hardy to 2b or 3b, those aren't his natural positions, he's not a guy who has been a SS/3B or a SS/2B, he's a short stop... His deteriorated bat would not profile nearly as well at 3B and I doubt he would be a great 2B, especially with little to no experience at the position. Tejada couldn't play 3B and Michael Young is awful at 3B, you can't just shove a SS over to a new position and think he'll be successful. Machado isn't the only reason Hardy should be traded, but it should be taken into consideration that the organazation's top prospect who has "franchise player" upside would be blocked if Hardy is still here in 2013/2014. I love what A_K said about .500 being a poor goal for your franchise. I'd take it a step further and say my goal wouldn't just be the playoffs, I want a team that legitimately contend year in and year out because they have impact players and most importantly depth. Also, as A_K said, The O's did buy Hardy low and he had a great season, now would be a great time to sell high and get a SS needy team to overpay rather than waiting for Hardy to decline and getting midlevel prospects for him. .500 is overrated, championships should be the goal. I still think a top starter would be good to take the pressure off of the young guys and possibly mentor them, but that's debatable...

[Rising O's]

Machado won't be ready for another two years. I fail to see the point in moving Hardy now other than to accumulate more ML ready players for when he is ready.

[Matt P]

There's no question that any prospects received for Hardy would have a high likelihood of failure. After all, if it was certain that they'd succeed, teams wouldn't trade them in the first place. It goes without saying that trading for prospects is trading for uncertainty. That's a feature, not a bug.

What would be so great about a .500 season? Assuming that we're really two quality starting pitchers away from being there (which I don't think is true, but for the sake of argument, let's pretend it is), what would be so great about reaching that mystical number? In all likelihood, we'd still finish in last or second to last in the division. We'd still miss the playoffs. Attendance would remain low. Ultimately, what would that accomplish?

And running with your hypothetical, how exactly are we going to "sign a starter or two this off season that can pitch well next season"? Where are we finding these starters? How much will they be paid? How does that affect the resources we can provide to other parts of the organization? Is it a guarantee that Guthrie and Britton and Arrieta will perform well enough to supplement these two new starters well enough that we can reach this 81 win goal?

The only teams in all of baseball that might be worse than us are the Astros and Pirates. We're mediocre offensively, bad defensively, terrible at pitching, and don't have a good farm system to change any of those things. Why would we think that free agent spending will change our fortunes? How well has that worked in recent years? At what point do we all accept reality and admit that, yes, we are in fact terrible, and the only solution is to start from scratch?

The goal is to buy low and sell high. We succeeded in buying Hardy at an extreme low. Chances are he just played the best season of his career. Instead of completing the transactional cycle and selling him at that high point, we instead gave him a contract extension, thus giving us a good SS for our next three 95-loss seasons. What is the point? Why do we bother with these temporary fixes? How long can fans continue to be clueless about the reality of our situation?

You are caught up on the "uncertainty" of prospects that might be returned in a trade. Virtually everything in baseball is uncertain. What teams do is weigh the likelihood of one outcome versus the likelihood of another outcome to make their decisions. Risk vs reward. The closest thing we have to a certainty in our current situation is the overall state of the Baltimore Orioles. That is, it's virtually certain that we're a terrible, god awful team with no credible reason to expect improvement.

I'm not saying a .500 season would be great. I think a team that finishes .500 is obviously not terrible though. A team that finishes .500 could be attractive to other players and could make it easier to sign them than when the team is winning 65 games a year.

I'm not saying it will happen just saying 1 or 2 starters is all the team needs to be around a .500 ball club. Heck, just adding one starter like Edwin Jackson or CJ Wilson may be enough if we see improvements from Britton, Arrieta, and Hunter.

I think FA spending is the way the team needs to go because they have proven they can't develop talent. It's a matter of actually signing talent other than signing has beens like Vlad, Lee, Atkins, etc. Why continue to trade for prospects when that obviously doesn't work either?

Also, I agree that they need to totally rebuild but I also realize it is never going to happen. That is the main reason I see no point in trading Hardy unless they are also going to trade Reynolds, Jones, Markakis, Guthrie, etc.

[Matt P]

Machado absolutely should be a consideration. It's not that easy to just shove Hardy to 2b or 3b, those aren't his natural positions, he's not a guy who has been a SS/3B or a SS/2B, he's a short stop... His deteriorated bat would not profile nearly as well at 3B and I doubt he would be a great 2B, especially with little to no experience at the position. Tejada couldn't play 3B and Michael Young is awful at 3B, you can't just shove a SS over to a new position and think he'll be successful. Machado isn't the only reason Hardy should be traded, but it should be taken into consideration that the organazation's top prospect who has "franchise player" upside would be blocked if Hardy is still here in 2013/2014. I love what A_K said about .500 being a poor goal for your franchise. I'd take it a step further and say my goal wouldn't just be the playoffs, I want a team that legitimately contend year in and year out because they have impact players and most importantly depth. Also, as A_K said, The O's did buy Hardy low and he had a great season, now would be a great time to sell high and get a SS needy team to overpay rather than waiting for Hardy to decline and getting midlevel prospects for him. .500 is overrated, championships should be the goal. I still think a top starter would be good to take the pressure off of the young guys and possibly mentor them, but that's debatable...

Ok, if he can't handle either position you trade him at that point like I said earlier. There are plenty of reasons to trade Hardy and to not trade Hardy that all make sense. Trading him because of a 19 year old in A ball given the O's track record of developing talent is not one of those arguments that make sense though.

[Oriole85]

Well this Hardy topic has gotten a lot of traction when I came here to comment on Jones. I think too much is being made of blocking Machado. That will be a nice problem when (and if) it happens. How many times do these "can't miss" prospects miss. Players get injured, overprojected, heck Machado might end up as a 3B.

I remember when people were saying that Hardy was "pricing himself out of Baltimore," some even speculated he would be making $15 million/year. Ok didn't exactly happen.

And really who knows, maybe the Orioles tried to see what was out there and they weren't happy with the prespective return. I am happy they re-signed him. Yes, they might not contend, but I don't like this "failure approach," that were always 3-4 years away from doing anything. How about a little George Allen, "the future is now."

[Oriole85]

Now onto Jonesy...

Ideally, I would like to keep him and extend him at a team-friendly price, not this year but next year, take a bit of wait-and-see approach. I wouldn't overpay him. I would start gauging his interest this offseason. If it is determined that he wants to go to the "best coast," which he tweets about every road trip that way, then start exploring trades as well if he's asking for too much $$$.

I realize many want to get their return in prospects and that avenue should be explored, if they get a deal they can't refuse, pull the trigger.

However, I think he's a good building block, solid person in the community, and someone this team can build around.

[ofahn]

if they get a deal they can't refuse, pull the trigger.

That's the only way I would make a deal BUT I think we should be open to trading Jones because (1) he's expendable, (2) we might fill two holes with the return.