Matt P wrote: A_K wrote:
Matt P wrote:The Orioles have one of the top SS in all of baseball after being abysmal at the position for years and you want him traded? It will never make any sense to me why people want Hardy traded.
Because we're terrible, not remotely close to being anything other than terrible, and will be nothing but terrible for every day that our SS is on the team. There is nothing that could ever possibly happen to make us competitive during thhe three years in which Hardy is under contract. That beinng the case, why not trade him for some 18 year olds on minor league contracts?
The team isn't terrible, the starting pitching is. If the O's can sign a starter or two this off season that can pitch well next season the team isn't that far off from a .500 season. Britton is going to get better, Arrieta was looking good before he started to have arm troubles, and Guthrie is fine. Hardy is incredible defensively and pretty solid offensively as well. He shouldn't be batting lead off or even 2nd in the order but anywhere from 5-9 he is perfect. Chances are even if we did land 2 or 3 highly ranked 18 year olds they wouldn't amount to anything close to what Hardy currently is.
There's no question that any prospects received for Hardy would have a high likelihood of failure. After all, if it was certain that they'd succeed, teams wouldn't trade them in the first place. It goes without saying that trading for prospects is trading for uncertainty. That's a feature, not a bug.
What would be so great about a .500 season? Assuming that we're really two quality starting pitchers away from being there (which I don't think is true, but for the sake of argument, let's pretend it is), what would be so great about reaching that mystical number? In all likelihood, we'd still finish in last or second to last in the division. We'd still miss the playoffs. Attendance would remain low. Ultimately, what would that accomplish?
And running with your hypothetical, how exactly are we going to "sign a starter or two this off season that can pitch well next season"? Where are we finding these starters? How much will they be paid? How does that affect the resources we can provide to other parts of the organization? Is it a guarantee that Guthrie and Britton and Arrieta will perform well enough to supplement these two new starters well enough that we can reach this 81 win goal?
The only teams in all of baseball that might be worse than us are the Astros and Pirates. We're mediocre offensively, bad defensively, terrible at pitching, and don't have a good farm system to change any of those things. Why would we think that free agent spending will change our fortunes? How well has that worked in recent years? At what point do we all accept reality and admit that, yes, we are in fact terrible, and the only solution is to start from scratch?
The goal is to buy low and sell high. We succeeded in buying Hardy at an extreme low. Chances are he just played the best season of his career. Instead of completing the transactional cycle and selling him at that high point, we instead gave him a contract extension, thus giving us a good SS for our next three 95-loss seasons. What is the point? Why do we bother with these temporary fixes? How long can fans continue to be clueless about the reality of our situation?
You are caught up on the "uncertainty" of prospects that might be returned in a trade. Virtually everything in baseball is uncertain. What teams do is weigh the likelihood of one outcome versus the likelihood of another outcome to make their decisions. Risk vs reward. The closest thing we have to a certainty in our current situation is the overall state of the Baltimore Orioles. That is, it's virtually certain that we're a terrible, god awful team with no credible reason to expect improvement.