O's MUST sign Yu Darvish

[rjc3]

I know, I know. Yu Darvish is a huge risk.

But he is 100% the kind of risk the O's MUST be taking if they want to compete with the beasts of the AL East!

So what if he busts. He's a potential ace and the O's would be foolish not to invest in him.

[Rising O's]

I think Darvish has the physical attributes that would make him more likely to succeed in MLB. He's just starting his prime years. He's had some shoulder problems and his innings pitched have been high in his early career. In a weak free agent market you can expect a lot of teams to be involved in the posting process, especially the big spenders. I think one of the Yankees or Red Sox could go crazy on a bid, possibly getting close to the 50 million spent on Matsuzaka.

The Orioles should make a bid and they have been scouting Darvish. I put a bid for 25-30 million. Then try to get him signed for 5-8 million per year for 5 years. Maxed out it would be something like 70 million over 5 years. The Orioles could easily apply the 14 million they spent on Vlad and Lee to cover this, so any excuse about not having money should not hold water. You could even go higher if they are active on the trade market, clearing Guthrie or Markakis. They don't have any major contracts to negotiate other than Jones' in the next 2-3 years so they can certainly afford it. Roberts will be coming off the books around that time too. This year we have Gonzalez and Scott coming off, so that clears another 12+ million to be used on raises and to other free agents.

The Orioles could easily make it work. It would be nice to have Koji around to help sell it to Yu though.

[Matt P]

Every couple of years there is a guy from Japan that is the next great pitcher and will be the one that is able to sustain success in the MLB as an ace. Just about everyone of them start off hot and then fade away or are nothing more than mediocre. There is no reason to waste money on a posting fee and then attempt to sign him.

It's a complete waste of time and money.

[OriolesRedskins28]

What type of shoulder problems did Darvish have? That's what would make me nervous, any type of injury history combined with the workload he's had at such a young age could make it pretty risky. I would hope that the O's would do their due diligence, asses his abilities and makeup and especially his delivery. If everything came out clean, good delivery, minimal injury history, great stuff, good makeup (which from what I've read he has a great makeup) then I think it's a risk the Orioles should take. As Rising O's said, the O's will have payroll flexibility and if Darvish comes out clean then it would be money well invested in a frontline starter. A big concern is the track record of Japenese imports in the past, it seems like all of the successful ones have only done well out of the bullpen (Saito, Park, Okajima, Koji) with Dice-K having injury issues, possibly due to the "every 6 days" pitching schedule their bodies become accustomed to in Japan. If Darvish checks out overall then they should throw the money at him, a top starter is exactly what they need.

[A_K]

I have exactly zero interest in this happening. This is the opposite of the type of move the Os should be making. We're the worst team in baseball. Rebuild! Simple!

[thezeroes]

I know, I know. Yu Darvish is a huge risk.

But he is 100% the kind of risk the O's MUST be taking if they want to compete with the beasts of the AL East!

So what if he busts. He's a potential ace and the O's would be foolish not to invest in him.

When someone says sign this player or that player, I would like for them to at least put an amount plus the length that they think the contract should be. With this information a person could tell if the poster is serious or just blowing smoke.

Having stated this desclaimer I do not think the Orioles should set themselves up for anything more than a three year deal on any pitcher. The vulnerability of the arms to fatigue and failure could cost way to much in the long run.

I am thinking Roster Spots.

When players get injured and are on the 15 day DL it can cripple the 40 man roster. When placed on the 60 day DL the 40 gets relief short term until the off season and then the roster spot is taken away when the rosters are finalized for the rule 5 draft. Clubs live and die from this Forty/Twenty-Five Rosters during the long season and to have an injured high priced unproven pitcher could hamstring needed moves.

I will also add that I am totally against this "Posting Fee" scenario and the "Blind Bidding"that ensues. The fee does nothing to help the player only the Parent Japanese Club. This smacks of robbery to me.

[Rising O's]

His shoulder injury was not severe, mostly fatigue and strain. Does that mean he has fraying that could eventually lead to a rotator cuff or labrum surgery? Who knows. As far as I know since he stopped using the screwball he has been fine.

He's not your typical Japanese pitcher due to his mixed heritage, so some of the concerns about him physically should be alleviated.

The Orioles desperately need a potential ace and a move to say to the fans they are serious about the future and also to make a move on the international scene. Darvish could do a lot for this franchise.

I could do without the posting process but them's the rules.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

I don't think it's an absolute must, but it's not a terrible idea.

The O's do need an ace and I don't see them making a play on CJ Wilson. Eventually, they need to find a guy who's Guthrie but provides quality innings and doesn't just eat innings.

Why not take a chance on Darvish?

[A_K]

Has there been any speculation about how much he'll cost, including posting fee? What percent of our annual budget are we talking about here?

[OriolesRedskins28]

I know, I know. Yu Darvish is a huge risk.

But he is 100% the kind of risk the O's MUST be taking if they want to compete with the beasts of the AL East!

So what if he busts. He's a potential ace and the O's would be foolish not to invest in him.

When someone says sign this player or that player, I would like for them to at least put an amount plus the length that they think the contract should be. With this information a person could tell if the poster is serious or just blowing smoke.

Having stated this desclaimer I do not think the Orioles should set themselves up for anything more than a three year deal on any pitcher. The vulnerability of the arms to fatigue and failure could cost way to much in the long run.

I am thinking Roster Spots.

When players get injured and are on the 15 day DL it can cripple the 40 man roster. When placed on the 60 day DL the 40 gets relief short term until the off season and then the roster spot is taken away when the rosters are finalized for the rule 5 draft. Clubs live and die from this Forty/Twenty-Five Rosters during the long season and to have an injured high priced unproven pitcher could hamstring needed moves.

I will also add that I am totally against this "Posting Fee" scenario and the "Blind Bidding"that ensues. The fee does nothing to help the player only the Parent Japanese Club. This smacks of robbery to me.

I think if everything checks out OK with Darvish, 100M total would be appropriate (including posting fee), maybe more. Again, this is only if everything checks out and the O's feel like he won't be a high injury risk. What makes him unproven? He may not have any MLB experience but he has put up almost 800 dominant innings over the past four years in Japan, that's worth something. Yet again if there is anything that makes the O's think twice then they should leave him alone, but otherwise he would be a huge upgrade to the league's worst pitching staff. It would be interesting to find out what Don has heard about/thinks of Darvish...

[Don]

FYI, Circles are saying the posting fee is likely North of 35 million. Any team takes a great deal of risk because the different philosophies in how they operate. Having pitched over there, it is throw, throw, and throw some more. I suspect I threw roughly 1,000-1,500 more balls a season than any point in the US. The arm only has so many bullets in it before you have to reload.

1. History shows that no pitcher has seen long term success, maybe a short stint and a re-birth, but nothing over a life span.
2. If you look at the pitchers, they play in larger ballparks and the games translate better in Petco Park's of the world.
3. Talent level in Japan is AAA to AAAA, this is the cream of the crop for the most part. The Ichiro's are a rare breed.

While he may have success in the MLB circuit, there are so many factors that scream it will not happen in the AL East, or NL East. For the combined 70-80 million, do you want to take the chance you get John Lackey results?

As a sound GM, it is wise to pass and make that mistake over signing, flopping and hamstringing the ball club with a bloated contract.

[OriolesRedskins28]

Wow that changes my view on things... Thanks for the info/perspective Don.

[Don]

It does not mean it is the right opinion, but just the other side of the coin.

[Oriole85]

No reason to waste the amount it is expected to take. I know everyone is big about spending "internationally" but these pitchers are almost always busts. Would rather spread the wealth around than putting your eggs in one basket.

[Rising O's]

If you can get those players to come here. As Angelos likes to whine, he has Confederate money. I think the Orioles can and should be involved because its the only free agent market where their money will be good. I just don't think it will be at a price that is reasonable because these other big spenders, having failed to win a championship, will be pressured to do more likely pushing the posting cost close to 50 million.