Projecting the Orioles' 2012 Starting Rotation

[ofahn]

all of our best prospects (Machado, Schoop, Bundy, Bundy, Hoes, Avery, Bridwell,Baker, whoever) pan out completely, at which point we might be in a position to win a division in 2016. Even in that scenario-- which is highly, highly unlikely-- we'd still have virtually no depth in the system behind those players

I believe (and so do some others in this forum that know what they're talking about) that the next impact wave of quality players coming out of our farm system will be in 2014. The Calvary: The Sequel. If you want to see a winning team in 2016, or even before then, that wave of talent will have to integrate into a foundation of established talent. That won't happen if everyone is a rookie.

I understand your concern about depth in the farm system and I'm disappointed we didn't take advantage of an opportunity to invest wisely in a deep talent pool this past June. The next GM HAS TO understand that our farm system needs a major infusion of talent. I would rather see that come from improved scouting and record setting draft budgets than blowing up the team and hoping you can find 25 major leagues talents from your farm system all at the same time.

Jordan feels that Buck wants to win now. I don't have a problem with that IF we don't trade our key prospects for quick fixes, we spend whatever is necessary to fix the farm system, and we back up the money truck to the draft and international signings. Those two paths may not be compatible. If so, I would rather see us do the slow and methodical development than the "quick fix" which I'm afraid will make the ineptness of the last fourteen years look like good times.

[A_K]

The problem is that wanting to "win now" isn't enough to make it happen. You also need a team full of good players. We're a few light years away from that goal. Buck Showalter's desire to "win now" is a lot like my desire to breath underwater. Sure, sounds great, but how? There's no foreseeable path to doing so, and stubbornly insisting on it anyway only ensures that we won't win later, in addition to not winning now.

I should have also mentioned initially that I'm well aware that guys like Angle, Bell, Snyder, Adams and Tatum aren't viable everyday major leaguers. I've penciled them into my desired lineup only because-- unfortunately-- it's a rule that you must field a big league team for all 162 games if you plan on being a MLB franchise. Ideally, we'd be able to relegate the big league squad for five years and return as something that deserves to play in Camden Yards (even if the players still aren't ready to win, there will at least be an effort underway to someday field a competitive product, unlike every single minute of the last 14 years, when that never happened). But as long as Selig and the owners insist on us acting as BP machines and playing in their simulated games each day, I figure we could at least sacrifice all the guys who have less than no value at one time, and focus our real attention on more frutiful endeavors, like building a farm system.

Look at it like this. If you've contracted cancer, and you're slowly whittling away, are in constant pain, can hardly walk, and are suffering from crippling migraines, deciding not to go see a doctor doesn't make you healthy. The new GM needs to take a sober look at this organization and realize that we are far and away the most hopeless organization in all of American sports. With the composition of our farm system, the agenda of our owner, and the state of our division, we are less likely to become a relevant team than any other franchise in any other American sport. Our outlook is beyond bleak. At the same time, the team's revenues have basically bottomed out, and the business people can now accurately say that there's nothing that could happen that would result in them making less money than they are right now. So if they're satisfied with their financial returns, they could stay the course with these pretend attempts to "win now" (when any logical assessment of the situation would acknowledge that "winning now" isn't even a remote option), and know that they'll continue to turn a nice little profit. I wouldn't begrudge them if that's what they decide. It's a nice position to be in to know that your company makes money no matter what product you produce. However, if it really is on their priority list to *eventually* win a few games, then they should accept the situation as is, place metaphorical C4 over every metaphorical inch of the team, and embrace the opportunity to build a new city from scratch, without the infrastructure constraints of their predecessors.

Drop payroll to lowest in all of baseball. Play no one on the major league roster a dollar more than league minimum. Embrace the opportunity to finish in dead last every year and pick first. Take all the money you'd waste on terrible baseball players with recognizable names, and instead pay whatever is necessary to break lease with Sarasota and build a state-of-the-art facility in Arizona, where all spring trainings will be within the next 20 years. Build state-of-the-art academies in every prospect hotbed around the world. Be the highest spending team in every draft and in every international signing period. Hell, don't even hire a manager for the big league club. Just let the responsibility rotate between your team of AAAA players and recognize that the worst thing that could happen is that you keep losing, which is the same thing that was going to happen anyway.

Chances are, we'd continue to lose. But guess what? WE WERE GOING TO LOSE NO MATTER WHAT! It's an approach with no downside! And maybe, just maybe, we'd be able to win a few games in 10 years or so. Who knows? But the first thing that needs to happen is that everyone needs to honestly admit that we are a dismal franchise from top to bottom, and having one above average catcher and one or two OK pitching prospects isn't reason to ignore the only reasonable option for a team that is truly in worse shape than any other in all of American sports.

Honestly, wouldn't you prefer my strategy, if you're being perfectly honest with yourself? Sure, I'll let myself get excited if we sign Prince and trade for Youkilis and sign Beltran and CJ Wilson and start saying that we're going to contend this year. I'm a fan, I've got no reason not to go with the flow. But really, even if those unlikely transactions took place, wouldn't you still know, beyond the shadow of a doubt, that we still wouldn't finish above .500? So why not at least start from scratch? If we're going to lose anyway, it'd at least be fun to watch something be built from the ground up.

Alright, enough with my long-winded fantasy. But there you have it. That's what I want. Total anarchy and upheaval. We are easily the worst sports organization in this entire country, so why not? When you've got nothing, you've got nothing to lose.

[ofahn]

Honestly, wouldn't you prefer my strategy

Honestly, I'm glad you're not making the decisions in the Warehouse.

[A_K]

Ha, well, every person I've ever talked about the Orioles with feels the same as you do, so perhaps I'm crazy. But I truly believe Orioles fans, if they let themselves see the reality of the situation, would prefer my course of action to the perpetual nothingness that the organization currently embraces. And make no mistake, that's what we have right now: perpetual nothingness.

[TuckerBlair89]

The problem with your theory A_K is this (it was interesting to read nonetheless):

The Orioles still have talented assets within their organization. It does not benefit the club to simply wipe out every asset entirely. They gain nothing from that besides a few LOL's from the media. They just need more efficient and effective management from top to bottom in the organization. I think we can all agree that the personnel in the Orioles Organization are simply not getting the job done. There is no other way to classify the failures of each and every pitching prospect that comes through the system.

Before the season I expected a rotation of this by year end:

Guthrie
Matusz
Britton
Arrieta
Bergesen/Tillman

Now...I only "expect" Guthrie/Britton/Arrieta

[ofahn]

well, every person I've ever talked about the Orioles with feels the same as you do, so perhaps I'm crazy

No, I think you're frustrated and you have every right to be. My son is the same age as Markakis and the '97' team is just a distant memory to him.

SOME of your ideas have merit. I just think you're throwing out the baby with the bath water. I want to see this team set records for how much we're spending on the draft and player development. I want us to build a farm system that is constantly ranked in the top three EVERY year. I don't want us to make long term investments in short term (player) solutions.

That being said, I want this team to end it's tradition of losing now. You do that by putting major league caliber players on your roster but you don't have to spend big bucks to do it. Look at Tampa, Florida, and San Diego; they work miracles with half of our budget. It just takes the right management philosophy and personnel.

The decision concerning the GM position being made in the Warehouse right now will determine the future of this franchise for the next decade. Whomever is chosen ABSOLUTELY HAS TO BE HONEST WITH PETER ANGELOS and convince him that the team is going to HAVE TO SPEND WHATEVER IT TAKES to stock the farm system and develop talent CONSISTENTLY. If the Orioles would spend the same 200M over the next eight years on their player development system that someone is going to pay Prince Fielder we would start a new "Glory Years" era. If they "stay the course" we're going to make the Pirates look like a success story.

[A_K]

To be honest, I'm mostly past frustration and into acceptance. I haven't been angry after an Orioles loss in two years. Watching them play each night is just something I do, and I never have any expectation of victory. It's not something I ever even think about really. When they lose, my mood isn't much different than when they win, except that there are fewer individual performances for me to be excited about.

I'm also the same age as Markakis, so your son and I probably have a similar history with the team.

In any case, I agree that it's possible for Baltimore to follow the Florida/Tampa/San Diego/Oakland model and become a relevant team. I'm just afraid that the easiest way to getting there sooner than later is to not only move some veterans for prospects, but to move our most valuable pieces in order to get more valuable prospects in return. It's not that I don't think Wieters is a great player. It's because I think so highly of him that I want him to be traded.

But with the pitching staff, I think we'd generally be selling very low, and would be better served hanging on to most of the (former) prospects that are currently rehabbing their shaken egos and tattered bodies. Something's clearly wrong with Matusz, but he probably couldn't fetch much of a return. Better to hang on and hope for the off chance that he can still become a major league player. My bet is that he's out of baseball in three years, but I still think the slim chance that he turns it around makes it worth keeping him. Same goes for Tillman. Britton and Arrieta are more complicated. Britton could almost certainly bring a huge return. Arrieta I think would be perceived as damaged goods.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

ofahn and A_K, I enjoyed the back and forth.

It's obvious that the current direction of the team is unclear. Buck wants to win now but realistically they don't have enough to do that right now. But like you guys said, trying to win now will certainly hurt their chances for the future.

It brought me to this Billy Beane quote that's extremely relevant:

"You're either rebuilding for something special, or you're on the verge of something special. To be in between is foolish."

[LA Detective]

I think our pitching could be a big suprise next year. They are all young but all are in position to have taken their lumps and come out healthy. The number one thing is to improve the DEFENSE...LF,3B and 2B..Angle in LF leading off and go with great D at 3rd and 2nd batting 8th and 9th...Put that around the core we have and I think the Pitching has great improvment.

I am disappointed cuz I feel the O's gave up on Bergenson. He is a young pitcher who lost his release point and confidence. He had two huge streaks in his first two years. When he is right and he has shown this in long stretches, he eats innning and wins. I think he is the only one on the staff who could pitch 225 inining all year and stay healthy. We just needed to get him right. Jordan, do you know if the O's have a plan for him in the off-season to go somewhere and pitch?

[BuckMagic]

I think our pitching could be a big suprise next year. They are all young but all are in position to have taken their lumps and come out healthy. The number one thing is to improve the DEFENSE...LF,3B and 2B..Angle in LF leading off and go with great D at 3rd and 2nd batting 8th and 9th...Put that around the core we have and I think the Pitching has great improvment.

I am disappointed cuz I feel the O's gave up on Bergenson. He is a young pitcher who lost his release point and confidence. He had two huge streaks in his first two years. When he is right and he has shown this in long stretches, he eats innning and wins. I think he is the only one on the staff who could pitch 225 inining all year and stay healthy. We just needed to get him right. Jordan, do you know if the O's have a plan for him in the off-season to go somewhere and pitch?

After all of the struggles you just have to think that at least two of Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta or Britton will finally look like a MLB caliber SP.

[Rising O's]

Even though it has little to do with pitching topic I'm on AK's side. I've felt for the last couple of years they needed to bite the bullet and accept the 100 loss season for the good of the organization. Obviously this would not be a cure all but I think it would finally mean acceptance especially from Peter A of how bad the Orioles have been and what it means to finally commit to turning it around. I think they missed that boat on that in 2008/2009.

Andy made mistakes this year to try and compete believing in the finishes of our young pitchers in 2010 as a sign of things to come. I think he tried to correct for their failings by picking up guys like Hunter, Phillips, Strop, plus Chris Davis. These young pitchers can certainly support or be part of the starting rotation in 2012 while being part of the long term solution.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

I am disappointed cuz I feel the O's gave up on Bergenson. He is a young pitcher who lost his release point and confidence. He had two huge streaks in his first two years. When he is right and he has shown this in long stretches, he eats innning and wins. I think he is the only one on the staff who could pitch 225 inining all year and stay healthy. We just needed to get him right. Jordan, do you know if the O's have a plan for him in the off-season to go somewhere and pitch?

I don't think he's playing winter ball but I will double check for you. The O's have an unusually low number of players in winter ball this year.