Projecting the Orioles' 2012 Starting Rotation

[dan72]

Guthrie and Arrieta are locks. Britton and Hunter are probables depending on what happens in the off season. I feel strongly that Jim Johnson and Alfredo simon should be in the pen. I've been a Matusz fan from day one however he needs to improve in several areas before he is ready to pitch in the big leagues. Matusz is in the same boat with Tillman all the sudden, on the outside looking in. Long relief may not be a bad option for either of them.

As a long time season ticket holder, I would like to see at least one and preferably two starters brought in pitch for us in 2012. We know what our guys are capable of. Our offense is not the issue, our pitching is. It has been the issue for a long time. 14 years to be exact.

[BuckMagic]

Don I agree with a lot of your assessment. But Simon seems to hit 95, 96, 97 in the later innings so what tells you he's running out of gas?

[BuckMagic]

Guthrie and Arrieta are locks. Britton and Hunter are probables depending on what happens in the off season. I feel strongly that Jim Johnson and Alfredo simon should be in the pen. I've been a Matusz fan from day one however he needs to improve in several areas before he is ready to pitch in the big leagues. Matusz is in the same boat with Tillman all the sudden, on the outside looking in. Long relief may not be a bad option for either of them.

As a long time season ticket holder, I would like to see at least one and preferably two starters brought in pitch for us in 2012. We know what our guys are capable of. Our offense is not the issue, our pitching is. It has been the issue for a long time. 14 years to be exact.

And we're still waiting on those arms to develop...every year I feel that it is going to be the year a young pitcher turns the corner. And. it. never. happens.

[Don]

Simon still has the speed, but his command is shot about the second time through the rotation and his conditioning is really the key for his success.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

I would also look into signing Edwin Jackson, as I believe he is a FA.

Mark Buehrle is also worth a look but I don't see ANY (not even C J Wilson) FA pitcher worth more than a two year contract.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/ ... um=twitter

Last week impending free agent Mark Buehrle talked about how switching to the NL might be appealing after 12 seasons in the AL, but yesterday his agent chimed in to say “we’re not going to eliminate any team from consideration.”

Buehrle needs multiple teams bidding for his services to get the largest possible contract, so saying he wants to re-sign with the White Sox or sign with the hometown Cardinals or switch to the NL … well, all that stuff would just limit his market. Or at least that’s probably his agent’s thinking.

For his part Buehrle told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune that he’d sign quickly “if the right deal is there” rather than waiting around to see what happens with fellow left-hander C.J. Wilson (and possibly CC Sabathia as well).

[BuckMagic]

Simon still has the speed, but his command is shot about the second time through the rotation and his conditioning is really the key for his success.

I read on Twitter that they may send him to instructs to get him more innings. I'm sure that would help him build up some stamina. I also wonder if that implies they want him as a starter next year?

[ofahn]

I'd be happy to see him report to Spring Training in shape. At that point his pitching will decide which role is appropriate for him.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Here are my thoughts on the 2012 rotation: http://orioles-nation.com/2011/10/04/pr ... -starters/

Thoughts? Agree? Disagree?

[ofahn]

Here are my thoughts on the 2012 rotation: http://orioles-nation.com/2011/10/04/pr ... -starters/

1. Zach Britton
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Jake Arrieta
4. Brian Matusz
5. Tommy Hunter

Thoughts? Agree? Disagree?

Thanks for doing the research.

If those were the only choices we had I would agree BUT I sincerely hope we add at least two ML quality starting pitchers over the winter. I don't care whether it's by trade or FA signing. There will be enough big contracts and reclamation projects out there that a sharp GM should find us some talent.

I don't care whether adding starters "blocks" some of our kids because a few of those kids are BLOCKHEADS. They spent last winter polishing their name tag on their locker instead of getting in shape. They need to understand that there will be a dogfight for a rotation spot in spring training and nothing will be given to them.

If we finish the spring with more than five solid starters then we can trade them for other pieces. Good pitching is always a negotiable commodity.

[Matt P]

Britton, Guthrie, and Hunter should all be in the rotation to start the season as long as they aren't traded or injured. Britton and Guthrie are obvious choices, Hunter because he is an innings eater and I think Buck looks at him as a "nugget". Arrieta is going to need to prove he is healthy in ST (he should be) to be in the rotation. The real question is who are the O's going to sign or trade for this offseason? They need a starting pitcher more than anything. Getting 2 starters would be the best bet but I'm not sure I see that happening. CJ Wilson obviously tops the list of pitchers I would love to see them sign, I would also take a good look at Edwin Jackson. It should be an interesting offseason to say the least.

[ofahn]

CJ Wilson obviously tops the list of pitchers I would love to see them sign

Wilson is going to sign with someone for "stupid money" and would only sign with us for "REALLY stupid money". He would also want a number of contract years far beyond his effectiveness. IMO none of the premier "free" agents this winter are worth the money.

The exception to that might be Mark Buehrle. He claims he only wants to pitch for two more years. I would be willing to pay him 20% more than the market rate if the contract was for only two years.

[A_K]

I'd love to see an offseason free of short-sighted moves to fill in the perceived holes in our 2012 roster. We're going to be bad next year. Really, really, depressingly bad. Just like we were last year, and for the last 14 years. That's not ideal, but it's also not negotiable.

If they make any trades, they should be for reclamation projects and blocked prospects who carry a cheap price tag and still have considerable room for projection. No more Kevin Millwoods or Tommy Hunters. Embrace the dumpster dive! Embrace the reality that we're destined to be one of the five worst teams in the league yet again! Move past acceptance, and go right ahead and wrap both arms around the thought and breath it in. We are going to suck! Let's at least suck with an eye on not sucking at some point in the future.

My rotation:

Guthrie (hopefully traded by deadline)
Hunter (hopefully traded by deadline)
Britton
Matusz
Arrieta

Simon and Tillman can grab some of our (many) desperation starts. Hopefully Simon pitches well between the bullpen and the rotation that he can be traded as well. It'd be great if Roberts were healthy for a little while and produced enough that we could trade him too. Ideally we'd trade Wieters in the offseason (one of the best catchers in baseball and at a dirt cheap rate, the return would be huge) and Jones during the regular season (will be departing as a free agent in two years anyway). It might be considered bad form to trade Hardy so close to his signing an extension, but hopefully if he performs well in the first half of the year we'll trade him too. Obviously Markakis' contract makes him untradeable. Reynolds certainly could be traded this offseason or early next year. You won't be able to get anything for Davis, but certainly we should trade him as well. All of these players should be traded for the youngest prospects possible. Absolutely no major league ready players, please.

That'd give us an end-of-2012 rotation and lineup of

Britton
Matusz
Arrieta
Tillman
Whoever (Berken, VandenHurk, S. Johnson, etc.)

and

SS Andino
2B Adams
RF Markakis
LF Reimold
3B Bell
DH Mahoney
1B Snyder
CF Angle
C Tatum

Then we can go into next season and honestly say that we're in a rebuilding period for the first time in my life.

[ofahn]

A K,

I hope this post was written out of frustration and does not reflect what you would do if you were the GM.

We're going to be bad next year

Why do you feel that way? With the improvement in the offense, if this team would have had the same pitching we got in the last third of 2010 we would have won at least 85 games. Between the chaos in the coaching staff and a complete lack of ML ready pitchers at AAA we were unprepared for the injuries to the starting staff. With Andy MacPhail stepping away from the GM position I don't think that will happen again.

If they make any trades, they should be for reclamation projects and blocked prospects who carry a cheap price tag and still have considerable room for projection. No more ... Tommy Hunters.

Tommy Hunter is a reclamation project and was a blocked prospect. We got him from Texas for someone we could afford to lose (Uehara). I don't think he's a ML starter on a winning team yet but he's still 25 and perhaps a winter of good nutrition and exercise will make a difference.

You suggested we trade Matt Wieters. Would he get a great return? You bet; but how would we replace the position, much less the player. There are few ML quality catching prospects much less all star caliber catchers. Wieters is what you build around when you trade other players for prospects.

I would have traded Hardy in July but he's signed now and we can revisit the trade issue next July.

I agree with trading Jones and wrote a post about it http://orioles-nation.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=539. My rationale was that Jones is one of the few players that we could get a quality return for that we can replace from within. Will Matt Angle or Kyle Hudson be the same player as Jones? No, but at least they're on the roster whereas a replacement for Wieters, Hardy, or Reynolds isn't.

You suggested playing Bell at 3B. Josh Bell is not a ML player and will probably never be more than a sub. Snyder will probably be a better sub, and Andino is a proven ML sub.

When you have had fourteen straight losing seasons it's necessary to keep every option open for improving your team but trading players just to trade them isn't the answer. If you don't have the replacement for a position you only trade that player if you're going to fill at least two other holes.

If we can find at least two ML quality starting pitchers and a ML quality corner infielder this winter we should flirt with .500 in 2012 while we are waiting for the kids (The Cavalry, The Sequel) to mature.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

I'd love to see an offseason free of short-sighted moves to fill in the perceived holes in our 2012 roster. We're going to be bad next year. Really, really, depressingly bad. Just like we were last year, and for the last 14 years. That's not ideal, but it's also not negotiable.

If they make any trades, they should be for reclamation projects and blocked prospects who carry a cheap price tag and still have considerable room for projection. No more Kevin Millwoods or Tommy Hunters. Embrace the dumpster dive! Embrace the reality that we're destined to be one of the five worst teams in the league yet again! Move past acceptance, and go right ahead and wrap both arms around the thought and breath it in. We are going to suck! Let's at least suck with an eye on not sucking at some point in the future.

Even if Buck stays as the manager he is going to have a lot of say in the club's moves. He is in win now mode. As much as you might want that it is very hard to see happening.

[A_K]

I wasn't suggesting what I thought was likely or possible, just what I want. I realize that the reality is the Orioles will essentially do the exact opposite of what I said I wanted them to do, instead throwing $10 million at veteran relievers and desperately "filling holes" with guys like Aaron Hill and Michael Cuddyer.

While I recognize that Wieters is absolutely the type of guy a team should build around, the issue to me is how far we reasonably are from being a competitive team. The best case scenario, as I see it, is that all of our best prospects (Machado, Schoop, Bundy, Bundy, Hoes, Avery, Bridwell,Baker, whoever) pan out completely, at which point we might be in a position to win a division in 2016. Even in that scenario-- which is highly, highly unlikely-- we'd still have virtually no depth in the system behind those players that might be able to prevent what happened to the Cavalry from happening yet again. Unlike other teams in our situation, we've never established multiple waves of talent within the system to prevent a boom or bust situation once one group of prospects graduates to the majors. My preference is to act as though we're an expansion team, trade everyone with any major league value whatsoever, and begin the process of becoming a respectable organization. Even with a great player like Wieters, we aren't anywhere near that reality. So why not get what you can and start over?