Projecting the Orioles' 2012 Starting Rotation

[Jordan Tuwiner]

I'll have a post on this soon, but want to get some discussion going.

Zach Britton, Jeremy Guthrie and Jake Arrieta are pretty much locks.

It looks like it will be Chris Tillman, Tommy Hunter, Alfredo Simon, Brian Matusz and Jim Johnson fighting for the last two spots.

Who should get those last two spots?

I'm thinking Britton, Guthrie, Arrieta, Hunter and Matusz.

[ofahn]

I would agree with your choices if we don't add any quality starters this winter; however, I'm hoping that's not the case. I would prefer that we limit the number of openings in the starting rotation this winter so our pitchers have motivation to work hard and earn a spot.

We should be active on the trade front and I see Adam Jones as the only expendable player that will get a quality return. Here is a link suggesting a trade for Madison Bumgarner.

http://orioles-nation.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=539

[Jordan Tuwiner]

I would agree with your choices if we don't add any quality starters this winter; however, I'm hoping that's not the case. I would prefer that we limit the number of openings in the starting rotation this winter so our pitchers have motivation to work hard and earn a spot.

We should be active on the trade front and I see Adam Jones as the only expendable player that will get a quality return. Here is a link suggesting a trade for Madison Bumgarner.

http://orioles-nation.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=539

I agree they should look into dealing Jones.

I would also look into signing Edwin Jackson, as I believe he is a FA.

[Shorebirdfan]

I wouldn't invest a large sum on any pitcher at this point. 2014 is the target. Save the money and go big in overslot college pitching draft choices.

I agree with your choices (assuming Brian is right come March). Last person I want to see in the rotation is JJ. Leave him in the pen.

[ofahn]

I would also look into signing Edwin Jackson, as I believe he is a FA.

Mark Buehrle is also worth a look but I don't see ANY (not even C J Wilson) FA pitcher worth more than a two year contract.

[Rising O's]

I'm trading Guthrie so he's not a lock for me, hoping they can get a 2nd base, OF, or 3b and a pitching prospect in return.

Who's after Arrieta, Britton and Matusz? I'm not sure, but we seem to have enough live arms to fill the 2 spots. If they can find another TOR guy then I'd be all for it, but I don't think that is Edwin Jackson. He'd be a flip with Guthrie in that he gives you a good ERA and 200 innings. I think he could win more than Guthrie who seems to have some block when it comes to holding leads.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

I wouldn't invest a large sum on any pitcher at this point. 2014 is the target. Save the money and go big in overslot college pitching draft choices.

I agree with your choices (assuming Brian is right come March). Last person I want to see in the rotation is JJ. Leave him in the pen.

Agreed. I don't think we want Kevin Gregg as the closer again...

[Jordan Tuwiner]

I'm trading Guthrie so he's not a lock for me, hoping they can get a 2nd base, OF, or 3b and a pitching prospect in return.

Who's after Arrieta, Britton and Matusz? I'm not sure, but we seem to have enough live arms to fill the 2 spots. If they can find another TOR guy then I'd be all for it, but I don't think that is Edwin Jackson. He'd be a flip with Guthrie in that he gives you a good ERA and 200 innings. I think he could win more than Guthrie who seems to have some block when it comes to holding leads.

If the O's look to deal Guthrie during the off season they will encounter the same problem they had right before the trade deadline. The 200 innings Guthrie provides are just so much more valuable to the Orioles than to other teams looking to contend.

[Rising O's]

For the right team Guthrie's innings make a lot of sense, even for a contender. The Yankees got lucky with Colon and Garcia, but the Red Sox didn't with their starting staff. The Reds had similar problems and it cost them. Trade Guthrie, pick up Livian Hernandez. Javier Vazquez, or look at Marquis or Padilla depending on health. I wouldn't consider any such move to be a big trade-off.

[Shorebirdfan]

On another thread in here, someone spoke of team chemistry and the importance of it. I don't think you can move Guthrie simply for what he brings to the team. He seems to be (in my opinion) the off field leader, the class clown the community advocate on the team.

The only way we could deal him is if Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta can all establish themselves as real MLB starters from the word go next season.

[ofahn]

If you trade Guthrie now you could probably get MLB ready talent for him. If you wait until March you would have to settle for multiple good but low level prospects for him. If you wait until the trading deadline you might maximize your return but risk an injury or diminished performance.

I don't think it would be prudent to trade him until we see more of the younger pitchers improving their game.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

For the right team Guthrie's innings make a lot of sense, even for a contender. The Yankees got lucky with Colon and Garcia, but the Red Sox didn't with their starting staff. The Reds had similar problems and it cost them. Trade Guthrie, pick up Livian Hernandez. Javier Vazquez, or look at Marquis or Padilla depending on health. I wouldn't consider any such move to be a big trade-off.

He could help a team but I don't think he's a guy that a team will look at during the off season and say "he will really improve our playoff chances"

[Jordan Tuwiner]

On another thread in here, someone spoke of team chemistry and the importance of it. I don't think you can move Guthrie simply for what he brings to the team. He seems to be (in my opinion) the off field leader, the class clown the community advocate on the team.

The only way we could deal him is if Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta can all establish themselves as real MLB starters from the word go next season.

That's why I am specifically against dealing him during the off season. If three young starters emerge and Guthrie is expandable, then you move him.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

If the Dodgers, Padres, or any other team with a big home ballpark were smart, they'd bring in Guthrie. I'm sure he would settle in nicely in a larger ball park.

He allows a lot less HRs on the road and has a lower FIP and xFIP on the road. CY is just not a good place for Guthrie to be pitching most of his innings.

[Don]

There is not a single guy that is 100% certain to be pitching in the opening day rotation in 2012. It is not to say they are not in the long term plans, but you cannot say for certain that a single guy is on the 25 man roster and in the rotation.

1. Britton - Ground ball rate is impressive at times, but his command needs major improvement next season if he is set to be an anchor on the staff. His fastball command has been to iffy to say without a doubt whatever he shows next spring leads to opening day.

2. Guthrie - Who knows if he is even on the team. Someone has to pitch, but someone could blow away the next GM with a deal. He is a lock, barring trades, but I think the team needs a guy in front of him to take a bit of the pressure off in the future.

3. Arrieta - Healthy is his calling. I think he comes back fine without any major issues. This spur was not due to mechanical problems and sometimes the agitation grows faster in some guys over others. Will he be ready in time to start the season will be a hot topic.

4. Hunter - He is not showing the ability to log through multiple lineups over the long haul. He must improve his pitch sequences and continue to keep the ball down, hitters off balance. He does not have swing and miss pitches, but he has swing and miss stuff. It really depends on who comes into the organization this winter and he could be pushed out. Must improve his conditioning as well.

5. Simon - I honestly think he has the best stuff, when he is on, than any other pitcher in this system. It dances and misses bats with regularity when his stamina is high. His gas tank runs out quickly and the ball starts to have a life on its' own. He must comeback next season it tip top shape and take this off-season to reconstruct himself. If not, bullpen is his future.

6. Johnson - History of arm issues and previous history of not being able to go through lineups multiple times should keep him in the bullpen. He works as the second best relief pitcher in the AL East and why ruin a good thing to potentially get a 3/4 starter. CJ Wilson's of the world are rare and it just forces the team to plug another hole in an always volatile market. Unless you can tell me 100% that Johnson is an ace, keep him in the bullpen.

7. Matusz - He will always be a flyball pitcher and unless he starts to show seperation between the FB/CH and starts to maintain the solid tight off-speed he is a liability in OPACY. He needs to seriously gain back some strength and conditioning. This is the only way that he gets the push and stays on top of the ball long through an inning and multiple innings a game.