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Who dat gunna help dem birds?

Who dat gunna help dem birds?

PostPost #1 by Rising O's » September 3rd, 2011, 10:13 am

Yeah I'm bored so I decided to look at our early returns on our recent draftees.

Mike Wright, now in A ball where he has been hit hard, but still carries and impressive 4 to 1 K to BB ratio.

Kyle Simon, in A ball pitching out of the pen. Limited action, but numbers look fine.

Johnny Ruettiger, in A ball. Zero home runs in 76 MiL ABs, O's have enough of these guys, no idea why Jordan keeps drafting them.

Tyler Wilson in A-. He's been very good as a starter. Low hits to IP. 4.5 to 1 K to BB ratio. Excellent start.

Trent Howard in A-. Mostly starting, has been good. 3 to 1 K to BB ratio.

Matt Taylor in A-. Pitching out of the pen. 0 HRs in 16 IP, about the only positive.

Devin Jones in A-. Pitching out of the pen. Nothing good to report.

Adam Davis A-. Decent OBP

Eric Wooten Gulf. Decent numbers out of the pen.

Mark Blackmar Gulf. Good numbers out of the pen.

Dustin Ward Gulf. Decent numbers out of the pen.

Jose Rivera Gulf. Great K to BB ratio, not much else is good.

Jalen Simmons Gulf. Ouch. So many Ks, so little of everything else.

Cameron Edman Gulf. Solid numbers, good defense at C.

Zachary Fowler A-. Out of the pen putting up good numbers. 4 to 1 K/BB.

Jerome Pena Gulf. Okay.
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Re: Who dat gunna help dem birds?

PostPost #2 by Jordan Tuwiner » September 5th, 2011, 8:19 pm

Mark Blackmar is a big sleeper and a guy with four pitches that are about average.

The O's went after a number of pitchers in this draft that have LOOGY potential. Fowler and Ward are two more sleepers.

Unfortunately, Mike Wright, Kyle Simon, Zach Davies and Mark Blackmar (obviously Dylan Bundy) are the only pitchers who I believe have a chance to stick as starters. Maybe Trent Howard.
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Re: Who dat gunna help dem birds?

PostPost #3 by Shorebirdfan » September 5th, 2011, 8:44 pm

Jordan wrote:Mark Blackmar is a big sleeper and a guy with four pitches that are about average.

The O's went after a number of pitchers in this draft that have LOOGY potential. Fowler and Ward are two more sleepers.

Unfortunately, Mike Wright, Kyle Simon, Zach Davies and Mark Blackmar (obviously Dylan Bundy) are the only pitchers who I believe have a chance to stick as starters. Maybe Trent Howard.


Jordan, what are your thoughts on Tyler Wilson. Got a chance to see him once and wasn't overly impressed with his stuff, but his results this season were very good.
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Re: Who dat gunna help dem birds?

PostPost #4 by chirping birds » September 6th, 2011, 2:42 pm

What do you think about Bywater after year 1? Despite not getting a win, he left 3 games with the lead and only received 9 runs of support in his 9 games throughout the season. It seems to me that the orioles stacked a couple of their teams while leaving others behind...is there any credibility to that?
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Re: Who dat gunna help dem birds?

PostPost #5 by Don » September 6th, 2011, 6:33 pm

When looking at prospects, you need to look past the stats a great deal. I would look more at situational stats and stats that are totally in a pitchers control. Even then sometimes these stats lie and better to know what limitations were on the pitcher, what the defensive limitations were behind him, etc....

Tim can probably attest that a great deal of the inflated pitchers values were attributed to a lack of range on the certain players that should get to a ball and they do not, etc....

I think Matt was at a better place than earlier in the season. He was showing some command issues and other times was really tight with the change up and fastball command. He just has to stay consistent and work a bit better against right handed pitchers. If he can improve against right handed batters, he might stay in the back of the rotation type.

At worst, he is a left hander out of the pen that can really lock down left handed hitters.
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Re: Who dat gunna help dem birds?

PostPost #6 by Jordan Tuwiner » September 6th, 2011, 8:31 pm

Shorebirdfan wrote:
Jordan wrote:Mark Blackmar is a big sleeper and a guy with four pitches that are about average.

The O's went after a number of pitchers in this draft that have LOOGY potential. Fowler and Ward are two more sleepers.

Unfortunately, Mike Wright, Kyle Simon, Zach Davies and Mark Blackmar (obviously Dylan Bundy) are the only pitchers who I believe have a chance to stick as starters. Maybe Trent Howard.


Jordan, what are your thoughts on Tyler Wilson. Got a chance to see him once and wasn't overly impressed with his stuff, but his results this season were very good.

Saw him in the CWS. Stuff isn't overwhelming but he has big league command. Solid bet to become a reliever.
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Re: Who dat gunna help dem birds?

PostPost #7 by Jordan Tuwiner » September 6th, 2011, 8:33 pm

chirping birds wrote:What do you think about Bywater after year 1? Despite not getting a win, he left 3 games with the lead and only received 9 runs of support in his 9 games throughout the season. It seems to me that the orioles stacked a couple of their teams while leaving others behind...is there any credibility to that?

Saw him in the GCL and with that low slot he is a LOOGY at worst. His command/control problems this year were more mental than anything and that changeup he is a good one.

If the control returns next year he could surprise.
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Re: Who dat gunna help dem birds?

PostPost #8 by Jordan Tuwiner » September 6th, 2011, 8:36 pm

Don wrote:When looking at prospects, you need to look past the stats a great deal. I would look more at situational stats and stats that are totally in a pitchers control. Even then sometimes these stats lie and better to know what limitations were on the pitcher, what the defensive limitations were behind him, etc....

Tim can probably attest that a great deal of the inflated pitchers values were attributed to a lack of range on the certain players that should get to a ball and they do not, etc....

I think Matt was at a better place than earlier in the season. He was showing some command issues and other times was really tight with the change up and fastball command. He just has to stay consistent and work a bit better against right handed pitchers. If he can improve against right handed batters, he might stay in the back of the rotation type.

At worst, he is a left hander out of the pen that can really lock down left handed hitters.

Not comfortable with him as a starter with those mechanics. Of course time to improve, but they scream reliever.
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Re: Who dat gunna help dem birds?

PostPost #9 by Don » September 6th, 2011, 11:19 pm

I think he is safe from a durability standpoint, but he needs to refine his mechanics to produce a repeatable delivery. If he can maintain that delivery, he has the arm action and movement to stay as a starter.

He must do the following to keep that status:

1. Learn a third/fourth effective pitch: Seeing his slot, I would think slider/cutter would greatly help him long term. It would also ride in the hands of the right handed batters. He could then have a pitch to neutralize right handed batters.

2. Repeat the delivery would improve command, which has plague his consistency from time to time.

3. Pick up some size in the legs and rear end. Come downhill a bit more and really get some torque separation.

I think he can hit low 90s constantly with about 10-15 pounds of hard muscle and some refinements that get him downhill more often. I still see starter at this stage, if he can improve. Still, he is a legit prospect that should fill a bullpen role in a 2 year window.
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Re: Who dat gunna help dem birds?

PostPost #10 by Shorebirdfan » September 7th, 2011, 5:25 am

chirping birds wrote:What do you think about Bywater after year 1? Despite not getting a win, he left 3 games with the lead and only received 9 runs of support in his 9 games throughout the season. It seems to me that the orioles stacked a couple of their teams while leaving others behind...is there any credibility to that?


I certainly would not put much into the W-L record. LAbor Day is a great example of a game that should have gone into the W column instead of a no decision for Bywater. If not for back to back errors by Rosa in the 9th (long after MAtt had made his way to the dugout) his best performance of the year would not have gone to waste. Bottom line is by the time he was promoted to Delmarva the strongest parts of their offesne was all playoff bound in Frederick (Machado, Schoop, Shutz, Dalles, Flacco and Mummey all started the season on Delmarva).

Biggest concern I have for Matt is the control. 4 of his 9 starts he walked 5 or more in 5IP or less. From a non professional perspective, I don't like his release point. It is lower than most 3/4 pitchers and I would like to see them move it up higher. I agree with other assessments here and mentioned when Jordan posted his latest depth list that I see Matt as a bullpen guy in the long run. He has the potential to dominate in spurts (6th inning on Labor Day he struck out the side after loading the bases) but I think he would be more successful in short spurts.

The good news for O's fans is Matt paired up with several others will make for an excellent if not crowded homegrown bullpen late in 2013 to 2014 with Bywater, Schrader, Henry, Tolliver, Klein and Ryan Berry. Hopefully health issues will go away and Hobgood will join them also.
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