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Is anyone untouchable this off-season?

Is anyone untouchable this off-season?

PostPost #1 by CamdenRevival » September 11th, 2010, 6:02 pm

OK, with the first optimistic September in Baltimore in several years, this offseason gets more interesting. For the most part, the "cavalry" is here and getting their experience and a winning attitude is starting to return to PPACY. While the Orioles might not challenge for the division next year, I expect them to at least look at the the Wild Card standings with interest next September (yes, maybe wishful thinking, but maybe not). Either way, it's time for Andy to "buy the bats". While he can shell out for a FA like Dunn et al, there are some interesting potential trade targets out there (Gonzalez, Fielder, etc.) that could be better. The Orioles have a deep enough system to pony up with some interesting prospects, but you may have to end up giving up future stars (like the Braves did in dealing Andrus + Feliz for Teixiera). Knowing that we're going to have to give up someone really good (the Brewers won't take Rhyne Hughes and Jim Hoey for Prince Fielder), Andy is going to have to make a tough call.

So the question is: who DON'T you include in a deal for a star power hitter? Should anyone be completely untouchable (not counting guys w/no-trades like BRob or essentially no trade like Nick)? Matusz? Britton? Arrieta? How about the younger veterans like Wieters or Adam Jones?
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Re: Is anyone untouchable this off-season?

PostPost #2 by allstar1579 » September 11th, 2010, 6:41 pm

CamdenRevival wrote:OK, with the first optimistic September in Baltimore in several years, this offseason gets more interesting. For the most part, the "cavalry" is here and getting their experience and a winning attitude is starting to return to PPACY. While the Orioles might not challenge for the division next year, I expect them to at least look at the the Wild Card standings with interest next September (yes, maybe wishful thinking, but maybe not). Either way, it's time for Andy to "buy the bats". While he can shell out for a FA like Dunn et al, there are some interesting potential trade targets out there (Gonzalez, Fielder, etc.) that could be better. The Orioles have a deep enough system to pony up with some interesting prospects, but you may have to end up giving up future stars (like the Braves did in dealing Andrus + Feliz for Teixiera). Knowing that we're going to have to give up someone really good (the Brewers won't take Rhyne Hughes and Jim Hoey for Prince Fielder), Andy is going to have to make a tough call.

So the question is: who DON'T you include in a deal for a star power hitter? Should anyone be completely untouchable (not counting guys w/no-trades like BRob or essentially no trade like Nick)? Matusz? Britton? Arrieta? How about the younger veterans like Wieters or Adam Jones?


No one should be traded if their departure will create a new hole to fill. If we have or can get a replacement, then the discussion should be there, but if you are creating a situation where next offseason you are trying to fill the hole you just made to get a 1B you are going to be chasing your tail a long time.

We have pitching depth, other teams value strong pitching chips more than people know, that and maybe an OF are about the only trade chips we have right now. Even then, pitching is so volatile that even when you think you have enough of it, you never do.
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Re: Is anyone untouchable this off-season?

PostPost #3 by LukeScottsShotgun » September 11th, 2010, 7:18 pm

CamdenRevival wrote:OK, with the first optimistic September in Baltimore in several years, this offseason gets more interesting. For the most part, the "cavalry" is here and getting their experience and a winning attitude is starting to return to PPACY. While the Orioles might not challenge for the division next year, I expect them to at least look at the the Wild Card standings with interest next September (yes, maybe wishful thinking, but maybe not). Either way, it's time for Andy to "buy the bats". While he can shell out for a FA like Dunn et al, there are some interesting potential trade targets out there (Gonzalez, Fielder, etc.) that could be better. The Orioles have a deep enough system to pony up with some interesting prospects, but you may have to end up giving up future stars (like the Braves did in dealing Andrus + Feliz for Teixiera). Knowing that we're going to have to give up someone really good (the Brewers won't take Rhyne Hughes and Jim Hoey for Prince Fielder), Andy is going to have to make a tough call.

So the question is: who DON'T you include in a deal for a star power hitter? Should anyone be completely untouchable (not counting guys w/no-trades like BRob or essentially no trade like Nick)? Matusz? Britton? Arrieta? How about the younger veterans like Wieters or Adam Jones?


Let me start off by saying no one is untouchable. Everyone should be made available for the right price. With that being said, Wieters and Matusz should be off-limits unless we really get blown away by a deal. Everybody else should be fair game as long as the deal is right.
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Re: Is anyone untouchable this off-season?

PostPost #4 by CamdenRevival » September 11th, 2010, 11:56 pm

I agree about never having enough pitching, but given our lack of hitting talent, as you pretty much say, that's where the trade bait is going to have to come from. And that's what makes it so hard--it's hard to imagine giving up Matusz and then watching the rest of the cavalry fail while Matusz succeeds elsewhere. But it might take a Matusz to get the big bat (agree that the Orioles would need to be blown away). Given the lack of catching depth, I can't imagine anything blowing them away enough to give up Wieters.

But that all brings up an interesting scenario: it seems like Adam Jones could be a trade chip as the Orioles arguably have the depth (Pie could move over, with Reimold back in LF and Corey as the spare) and future talent (Xavier Avery) to spare him. For some teams, if they deal away their star, they need to make sure to make it look like they're not selling out the team's future and that they are getting something good in return. Jones is from San Diego, so I could see the Padres loving the hometown All-Star Gold Glover angle enough to part with Adrian Gonzalez without breaking the fan base. I don't want to lose Adam Jones, but that might be what it takes (along with 1-2 of the arms). Just playin' armchair GM...
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Re: Is anyone untouchable this off-season?

PostPost #5 by allstar1579 » September 12th, 2010, 8:43 am

CamdenRevival wrote:I agree about never having enough pitching, but given our lack of hitting talent, as you pretty much say, that's where the trade bait is going to have to come from. And that's what makes it so hard--it's hard to imagine giving up Matusz and then watching the rest of the cavalry fail while Matusz succeeds elsewhere. But it might take a Matusz to get the big bat (agree that the Orioles would need to be blown away). Given the lack of catching depth, I can't imagine anything blowing them away enough to give up Wieters.

But that all brings up an interesting scenario: it seems like Adam Jones could be a trade chip as the Orioles arguably have the depth (Pie could move over, with Reimold back in LF and Corey as the spare) and future talent (Xavier Avery) to spare him. For some teams, if they deal away their star, they need to make sure to make it look like they're not selling out the team's future and that they are getting something good in return. Jones is from San Diego, so I could see the Padres loving the hometown All-Star Gold Glover angle enough to part with Adrian Gonzalez without breaking the fan base. I don't want to lose Adam Jones, but that might be what it takes (along with 1-2 of the arms). Just playin' armchair GM...


I'm actually not sold on Pie being that great in a full time role. Everytime he shows glimpses he either gets hurt, or has to split time with someone and I'm afraid he's one of those guys that will produce well when sharing time, but as soon as we depend on him for full time work he'll fall apart. Might just be me being pessimistic, but not really willing to risk it. Now if you said you wanted to trade Reimold or Pie I could be persuaded.
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Re: Is anyone untouchable this off-season?

PostPost #6 by CamdenRevival » September 14th, 2010, 1:24 am

I'm not sure where I stand on Pie. I think I talk about trading Adam Jones simply because he's got much higher trade value. I think Jones can get you Gonzalez or Fielder whereas I'm not sure Pie or Reimold could do the same. And if we are after the impact bat, we're gonna need to move some attractive talent. I don't want to see Jones go (I think he can be a superstar), but those are cavernous holes on the infield corners and the Orioles need to do something drastic if they want to content.
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Re: Is anyone untouchable this off-season?

PostPost #7 by allstar1579 » September 14th, 2010, 8:46 am

CamdenRevival wrote:I'm not sure where I stand on Pie. I think I talk about trading Adam Jones simply because he's got much higher trade value. I think Jones can get you Gonzalez or Fielder whereas I'm not sure Pie or Reimold could do the same. And if we are after the impact bat, we're gonna need to move some attractive talent. I don't want to see Jones go (I think he can be a superstar), but those are cavernous holes on the infield corners and the Orioles need to do something drastic if they want to content.


The only problem there is it's still going to cost you a good bit more than Jones to get it done for one of those guys, like one of our prized pitching prospects and some mid level guys. We just aren't in a position as a team to give up that much talent for one guy, it's creating too many holes for the sake of filling one. The best thing that could happen is to draft one of the legit power guys and let him develop, hence why Rendon would be perfect this year.
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Re: Is anyone untouchable this off-season?

PostPost #8 by LukeScottsShotgun » September 14th, 2010, 9:13 am

allstar1579 wrote:
CamdenRevival wrote:I'm not sure where I stand on Pie. I think I talk about trading Adam Jones simply because he's got much higher trade value. I think Jones can get you Gonzalez or Fielder whereas I'm not sure Pie or Reimold could do the same. And if we are after the impact bat, we're gonna need to move some attractive talent. I don't want to see Jones go (I think he can be a superstar), but those are cavernous holes on the infield corners and the Orioles need to do something drastic if they want to content.


The only problem there is it's still going to cost you a good bit more than Jones to get it done for one of those guys, like one of our prized pitching prospects and some mid level guys. We just aren't in a position as a team to give up that much talent for one guy, it's creating too many holes for the sake of filling one. The best thing that could happen is to draft one of the legit power guys and let him develop, hence why Rendon would be perfect this year.


For Fielder, it won't take much more than Jones. And I wouldn't trade for Fielder because of what happened to Mo Vaughn. He is also horrible defensively. Gonzalez might be available, and hopefully they've lowered the asking price from last year. Last year they wanted:

2 of: Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Brian Matusz
1 of: Zach Britton, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta.

So yeah, hopefully that price goes WAAAAAY down or I don't want us trading for Gonzalez. Everybody who says who need to trade for a first baseman needs to remember a few things:

1. Adam Dunn is a free agent, as is Paul Konerko. I'd prefer Dunn, but I'd be very happy with either of them.
2. Mahoney is definitely looking like he's going to be our first baseman of the future. Any trade for a first baseman should probably involve him.
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Re: Is anyone untouchable this off-season?

PostPost #9 by allstar1579 » September 14th, 2010, 10:09 am

LukeScottsShotgun wrote:
For Fielder, it won't take much more than Jones. And I wouldn't trade for Fielder because of what happened to Mo Vaughn. He is also horrible defensively. Gonzalez might be available, and hopefully they've lowered the asking price from last year. Last year they wanted:

2 of: Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Brian Matusz
1 of: Zach Britton, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta.

So yeah, hopefully that price goes WAAAAAY down or I don't want us trading for Gonzalez. Everybody who says who need to trade for a first baseman needs to remember a few things:

1. Adam Dunn is a free agent, as is Paul Konerko. I'd prefer Dunn, but I'd be very happy with either of them.
2. Mahoney is definitely looking like he's going to be our first baseman of the future. Any trade for a first baseman should probably involve him.


Yeah I wouldn't trade for fielder either, unless we didn't have to give up much aside from money, if it were a salary dump kinda thing I'd take the risk. From what I've seen the asking price on AGonz hasn't dropped from last year, and the RSox can and will easily beat any package we offer (they have more and better talent and can afford to give it up).

Dunn wouldn't bother me if it's just money, but I don't think I give up a 2nd round pick to sign him (although I would have done that over Gonzo). I wouldn't be completely sold on Mahoney just yet, he's showing some potential, but guys I talk to in the business are questioning if it's just a fluke year because they don't see much he's adjusted or done differently. Not that I'm totally down on him, but I would take it year by year with him and wouldn't have high expectations. (Snyder was a better hitting prospect and you see the wall he hit in AAA). He doesn't have much trade value yet, cause like I said scouts aren't really sold on him yet. Just that he could move to the OF, he's got good wheels, and a little pop, but has to show it at each level.
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Re: Is anyone untouchable this off-season?

PostPost #10 by LukeScottsShotgun » September 14th, 2010, 11:02 am

One very interesting scenario that I could see happening:

If the Yankees sign Carl Crawford, this will naturally force either Gardner or Swisher to the DH position. The obvious choice for that would be Swisher. Now, if the Yankees are wise enough to realize that they should probably leave the DH position wide open for a Posada/A-Rod rotation, they'd probably want to trade Swisher due to Gardner being younger and cheaper. If Swisher becomes available, I would like to see him in an Orioles uniform if the price is right. Great personality, and I think he could be an excellent clubhouse presence for us. I realize that there's no way he'd repeat his 2010 season with us, but he's still a proven power hitter, and he is known for being very reliable in clutch situations.

Chris Davis could be a cheap option for us. If we could fix him, we'd have the bargain of the century. Just don't give him a Garrett Atkins-sized deal. And of course we could always bring back Wiggy (which I would not be opposed to, we need his blue-collar attitude and he seems to like it in Baltimore.)
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Re: Is anyone untouchable this off-season?

PostPost #11 by allstar1579 » September 14th, 2010, 4:11 pm

LukeScottsShotgun wrote:One very interesting scenario that I could see happening:

If the Yankees sign Carl Crawford, this will naturally force either Gardner or Swisher to the DH position. The obvious choice for that would be Swisher. Now, if the Yankees are wise enough to realize that they should probably leave the DH position wide open for a Posada/A-Rod rotation, they'd probably want to trade Swisher due to Gardner being younger and cheaper. If Swisher becomes available, I would like to see him in an Orioles uniform if the price is right. Great personality, and I think he could be an excellent clubhouse presence for us. I realize that there's no way he'd repeat his 2010 season with us, but he's still a proven power hitter, and he is known for being very reliable in clutch situations.

Chris Davis could be a cheap option for us. If we could fix him, we'd have the bargain of the century. Just don't give him a Garrett Atkins-sized deal. And of course we could always bring back Wiggy (which I would not be opposed to, we need his blue-collar attitude and he seems to like it in Baltimore.)


Keep in mind Swisher has tried other AL cities and been a horrible failure. He plays well in NYY and I think they'll find a way to keep him in the lineup, I wouldn't waste anything of value on Nick because you never know when he's gonna put up CHW type numbers again.
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Re: Is anyone untouchable this off-season?

PostPost #12 by Jordan Tuwiner » September 14th, 2010, 6:31 pm

LukeScottsShotgun wrote:For Fielder, it won't take much more than Jones. And I wouldn't trade for Fielder because of what happened to Mo Vaughn. He is also horrible defensively. Gonzalez might be available, and hopefully they've lowered the asking price from last year. Last year they wanted:

2 of: Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Brian Matusz
1 of: Zach Britton, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta.

So yeah, hopefully that price goes WAAAAAY down or I don't want us trading for Gonzalez. Everybody who says who need to trade for a first baseman needs to remember a few things:

1. Adam Dunn is a free agent, as is Paul Konerko. I'd prefer Dunn, but I'd be very happy with either of them.
2. Mahoney is definitely looking like he's going to be our first baseman of the future. Any trade for a first baseman should probably involve him.


I'm still not sold on Mahoney. He has the potential to be our 1B of the future, but he still hasn't done enough for me to believe so. At this point, I have Tyler Townsend slightly ahead of Mahoney. SSS, but Townsend has absolutely mashed over his 200 at-bats. I've seen him multiple times this season and have come away impressed.

Code: Select all
                                                             
Year   Age        Tm  AB  H 2B 3B HR BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
2010    22  Delmarva 117 40 12  2  3  9 18 .342 .398 .556 .954
2010    22 Frederick  67 19  5  2  3 10 15 .284 .385 .552 .937


That's 17 XBH in 184 at-bats.
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Re: Is anyone untouchable this off-season?

PostPost #13 by allstar1579 » September 14th, 2010, 8:50 pm

Jordan wrote:
LukeScottsShotgun wrote:For Fielder, it won't take much more than Jones. And I wouldn't trade for Fielder because of what happened to Mo Vaughn. He is also horrible defensively. Gonzalez might be available, and hopefully they've lowered the asking price from last year. Last year they wanted:

2 of: Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Brian Matusz
1 of: Zach Britton, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta.

So yeah, hopefully that price goes WAAAAAY down or I don't want us trading for Gonzalez. Everybody who says who need to trade for a first baseman needs to remember a few things:

1. Adam Dunn is a free agent, as is Paul Konerko. I'd prefer Dunn, but I'd be very happy with either of them.
2. Mahoney is definitely looking like he's going to be our first baseman of the future. Any trade for a first baseman should probably involve him.


I'm still not sold on Mahoney. He has the potential to be our 1B of the future, but he still hasn't done enough for me to believe so. At this point, I have Tyler Townsend slightly ahead of Mahoney. SSS, but Townsend has absolutely mashed over his 200 at-bats. I've seen him multiple times this season and have come away impressed.

Code: Select all
                                                             
Year   Age        Tm  AB  H 2B 3B HR BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
2010    22  Delmarva 117 40 12  2  3  9 18 .342 .398 .556 .954
2010    22 Frederick  67 19  5  2  3 10 15 .284 .385 .552 .937


That's 17 XBH in 184 at-bats.


Yeah I think if I had to rank our 1B prospects I'd probably go Townsend, Snyder, Mahoney...but that could all change a bit this year. High hopes for Townsend, Miclat, Manny, Schoop, Avery, Hoes, and Coffey this season.
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Re: Is anyone untouchable this off-season?

PostPost #14 by LukeScottsShotgun » September 15th, 2010, 1:03 pm

allstar1579 wrote:
LukeScottsShotgun wrote:One very interesting scenario that I could see happening:

If the Yankees sign Carl Crawford, this will naturally force either Gardner or Swisher to the DH position. The obvious choice for that would be Swisher. Now, if the Yankees are wise enough to realize that they should probably leave the DH position wide open for a Posada/A-Rod rotation, they'd probably want to trade Swisher due to Gardner being younger and cheaper. If Swisher becomes available, I would like to see him in an Orioles uniform if the price is right. Great personality, and I think he could be an excellent clubhouse presence for us. I realize that there's no way he'd repeat his 2010 season with us, but he's still a proven power hitter, and he is known for being very reliable in clutch situations.

Chris Davis could be a cheap option for us. If we could fix him, we'd have the bargain of the century. Just don't give him a Garrett Atkins-sized deal. And of course we could always bring back Wiggy (which I would not be opposed to, we need his blue-collar attitude and he seems to like it in Baltimore.)


Keep in mind Swisher has tried other AL cities and been a horrible failure. He plays well in NYY and I think they'll find a way to keep him in the lineup, I wouldn't waste anything of value on Nick because you never know when he's gonna put up CHW type numbers again.


If you look at his splits, he's actually been a little bit better on the road. http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... Career&t=b

And yes that's a risk, but a team like ours needs to take a few risks if we want to contend. Also, I'm noticing something different about Swisher this year. He's no longer the two outcome player that he was. He's been hitting around .280-.300 all year. We probably wouldn't need to give up much for him anyway. He doesn't have prolonged experience at first, but he does boast a .994 career fielding percentage at first base in 255 games. We should take a flyer on him if he becomes available. Although I'm fairly sure the Yankees wouldn't trade him to a division rival.
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Re: Is anyone untouchable this off-season?

PostPost #15 by allstar1579 » September 15th, 2010, 3:00 pm

LukeScottsShotgun wrote:
allstar1579 wrote:
LukeScottsShotgun wrote:One very interesting scenario that I could see happening:

If the Yankees sign Carl Crawford, this will naturally force either Gardner or Swisher to the DH position. The obvious choice for that would be Swisher. Now, if the Yankees are wise enough to realize that they should probably leave the DH position wide open for a Posada/A-Rod rotation, they'd probably want to trade Swisher due to Gardner being younger and cheaper. If Swisher becomes available, I would like to see him in an Orioles uniform if the price is right. Great personality, and I think he could be an excellent clubhouse presence for us. I realize that there's no way he'd repeat his 2010 season with us, but he's still a proven power hitter, and he is known for being very reliable in clutch situations.

Chris Davis could be a cheap option for us. If we could fix him, we'd have the bargain of the century. Just don't give him a Garrett Atkins-sized deal. And of course we could always bring back Wiggy (which I would not be opposed to, we need his blue-collar attitude and he seems to like it in Baltimore.)


Keep in mind Swisher has tried other AL cities and been a horrible failure. He plays well in NYY and I think they'll find a way to keep him in the lineup, I wouldn't waste anything of value on Nick because you never know when he's gonna put up CHW type numbers again.


If you look at his splits, he's actually been a little bit better on the road. http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... Career&t=b

And yes that's a risk, but a team like ours needs to take a few risks if we want to contend. Also, I'm noticing something different about Swisher this year. He's no longer the two outcome player that he was. He's been hitting around .280-.300 all year. We probably wouldn't need to give up much for him anyway. He doesn't have prolonged experience at first, but he does boast a .994 career fielding percentage at first base in 255 games. We should take a flyer on him if he becomes available. Although I'm fairly sure the Yankees wouldn't trade him to a division rival.


Yeah I doubt they would either, more hypothetical discussion, but I think he's a guy that plays hard and well on the team he wants to be on, and if traded to the O's you wouldn't see that side of him.
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