Is L.J. Hoes the Orioles' Second Baseman of the Future?

[Jordan Tuwiner]

http://orioles-nation.com/2011/08/11/is ... of-future/

When it comes to L.J. Hoes, one thing is clear: he can hit. Although what's not clear is whether his future defensive home is second base or the outfield.

Hoes had played outfield in high school but immediately shifted to second base after being drafted. Up until 2011 he had played second base, and only second base, as an Oriole. But at the start of the season the Orioles announced that he would primarily play outfield in 2011.

[ofahn]

I wonder if the team didn't make the decision that Ryan Adams was going to be a better glove at 2B than Hoes? If so, then Ryan would be the next in line to Brian Roberts and would need at least 500 ABs to prove himself.

While Ryan is given the shot at 2B what do you do with Hoes? If you play him at 2B and spend 2011 learning that his glove won't work there then he's behind the learning curve for LF at AAA in 2012. That's a lot to ask of a 22 year old.

Perhaps they came to the conclusion that Hoes' bat would fill out enough to justify a corner OF spot. If he has an OPS of .825 or better with 30+ SBs a year what does it matter HOW that OPS breaks down? That kind of production is worthy of a 2, 3, or 6 spot in the batting order on a winning team.

If Reimold claims the LF spot next year then Hoes becomes a trade blue chip to fill one of the many holes we have.

[Shorebirdfan]

I can say with certainty that if Adams is the better glove the franchise is in trouble. I thnk the challenge for both these prospects is exactly that. Neither Adams nor Hoes has the ability to play the position defensively. I would continue to develop Hoes in LF

[Rising O's]

I don't get it. If his home is 2nd and defense is the biggest question mark, then keep him at 2nd in A+ instead of shifting him to LF. I know you need for him to get time at AA but is holding his development up for Miclat wise? And shouldn't Miclat be in AAA anyway?

[Jordan Tuwiner]

I wonder if the team didn't make the decision that Ryan Adams was going to be a better glove at 2B than Hoes? If so, then Ryan would be the next in line to Brian Roberts and would need at least 500 ABs to prove himself.

While Ryan is given the shot at 2B what do you do with Hoes? If you play him at 2B and spend 2011 learning that his glove won't work there then he's behind the learning curve for LF at AAA in 2012. That's a lot to ask of a 22 year old.

Perhaps they came to the conclusion that Hoes' bat would fill out enough to justify a corner OF spot. If he has an OPS of .825 or better with 30+ SBs a year what does it matter HOW that OPS breaks down? That kind of production is worthy of a 2, 3, or 6 spot in the batting order on a winning team.

If Reimold claims the LF spot next year then Hoes becomes a trade blue chip to fill one of the many holes we have.

Ryan Adams is a well below-average defender; he struggles to even make the routine play.

If Hoes puts up an .800 OPS with 20 or so steals, that's extremely good for a second baseman but only okay for LF. It's all bout positional value.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

I don't get it. If his home is 2nd and defense is the biggest question mark, then keep him at 2nd in A+ instead of shifting him to LF. I know you need for him to get time at AA but is holding his development up for Miclat wise? And shouldn't Miclat be in AAA anyway?

The problem is Ryan Adams at 2B. I would have Blake Davis on the Norfolk bench, Adams starting at 2B for the Orioles, and Miclat playing 2B at Norfolk which would allow Hoes to play 2B at Bowie.

[ofahn]

Ryan Adams is a well below-average defender; he struggles to even make the routine play.

The problem is Ryan Adams at 2B. I would have Blake Davis on the Norfolk bench, Adams starting at 2B for the Orioles, and Miclat playing 2B at Norfolk which would allow Hoes to play 2B at Bowie.

I agree with you but the team clearly does not.

I think Joe Jordan is giving us the best talent he can with the budget he's allowed. I just think the development staff drops the ball from there. Keep Jordan and get rid of Stockstill.

[PapaRick]

In his pre-game interview with Hunter and Dempsey on Monday night, L.J. said he preferred LF and 3B. He certainly has the arm for 3B, although I know his bat still plays better at 2B.

By the way, I thought he showed well in his interview. He actually looks a little like a thinner version of Adam Jones.

I am excited to see him start to show some power and look forward to his debut in Baltimore next Septmeber with the call-ups.

[Rising O's]

get rid of Stockstill.

And how!

[A_K]

I recognize and generally agree with the idea that he needs to be kept at 2B for the relative positional value he provides there.

If only for conversation, though, this might be a worthwhile time to mention the "Fewer Custs More Fulds" theory popularized by Jonah Keri explaining the lowered run environment we're currently seeing in the MLB. In that respect, and assuming Hoes can play a plus defense in the corner outfield, he could certainly be a worthwhile starter in left.

I'm mostly of the school of thought that he needs to stay at 2B, but since it's been talked about so much, it's probably worth mentioning right now that there's supposedly a movement afoot to increase the defensive capability of corner outfielders. And if he can do that along with an .800 OPS, it really isn't too much of a leap to imagine him as an everyday player on a good team.

[rjc3]

I agree with you but the team clearly does not.

I think Joe Jordan is giving us the best talent he can with the budget he's allowed. I just think the development staff drops the ball from there. Keep Jordan and get rid of Stockstill.

But is Stockstill really the problem? I would think it has more to do with the developmental staff in the minors, or how the generally teach players.

[rjc3]

In his pre-game interview with Hunter and Dempsey on Monday night, L.J. said he preferred LF and 3B. He certainly has the arm for 3B, although I know his bat still plays better at 2B.

By the way, I thought he showed well in his interview. He actually looks a little like a thinner version of Adam Jones.

I am excited to see him start to show some power and look forward to his debut in Baltimore next Septmeber with the call-ups.

I would like to see him sooner. I honestly would think he could handle hitting in the majors right now. Maybe Brian will retire because an old second baseman with concussion issues isn't going to improve a whole lot.

[rjc3]

I recognize and generally agree with the idea that he needs to be kept at 2B for the relative positional value he provides there.

If only for conversation, though, this might be a worthwhile time to mention the "Fewer Custs More Fulds" theory popularized by Jonah Keri explaining the lowered run environment we're currently seeing in the MLB. In that respect, and assuming Hoes can play a plus defense in the corner outfield, he could certainly be a worthwhile starter in left.

I'm mostly of the school of thought that he needs to stay at 2B, but since it's been talked about so much, it's probably worth mentioning right now that there's supposedly a movement afoot to increase the defensive capability of corner outfielders. And if he can do that along with an .800 OPS, it really isn't too much of a leap to imagine him as an everyday player on a good team.

Interesting.....is there any link to his work on that subject? Is it that pitchers are getting better or that hitters are worse? I wonder because it seems like every year is titled "year of the pitcher!"

[A_K]

I recognize and generally agree with the idea that he needs to be kept at 2B for the relative positional value he provides there.

If only for conversation, though, this might be a worthwhile time to mention the "Fewer Custs More Fulds" theory popularized by Jonah Keri explaining the lowered run environment we're currently seeing in the MLB. In that respect, and assuming Hoes can play a plus defense in the corner outfield, he could certainly be a worthwhile starter in left.

I'm mostly of the school of thought that he needs to stay at 2B, but since it's been talked about so much, it's probably worth mentioning right now that there's supposedly a movement afoot to increase the defensive capability of corner outfielders. And if he can do that along with an .800 OPS, it really isn't too much of a leap to imagine him as an everyday player on a good team.

Interesting.....is there any link to his work on that subject? Is it that pitchers are getting better or that hitters are worse? I wonder because it seems like every year is titled "year of the pitcher!"

I'll poke around on Fangraphs to see if there's a general overview of the theory that he's written. I've mostly seen him discuss in terms of speculative explanations for the decreased run environment that's been empirically measured this season. His guess is that it's a combination of factors, one of which is that there are "fewer Custs" and "more Fulds." I'll post anything here if I can find something definitive he's written on the subject.

[A_K]

Just tweeted an inquiry to Keri to see if he's written anything extensive on the subject. We'll see if he responds.