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No longer a fan of MacPhail, and losing hope for Jordan too.

No longer a fan of MacPhail, and losing hope for Jordan too.

PostPost #1 by docjj » July 21st, 2011, 5:50 pm

I have stood up for the man for the past several years. I bought in to his "grow the arms" philosophy.

Now I'm glad his contract is up.

I was reading about the 51 win Pirates just now. There's a team that's been as bad as us or worse for about the same duration. Now they're a 51 win team. And us? Just look in the cellar like always.

Let's see how our wonderful arms are. Matusz? His fastball went from 94 MPH to 88. He can't get AAA hitters out. Tillman? Gee- the same thing. Fastball went from 95 MPH to 88 and he can't get AAA guys out. Britton- hot start, now back in Double-A. Bergesen- a flash in the pan. Arrieta- Probably doing the best, but his arm will probably fall off considering how many pitches it takes him to get through the 6th inning of most games.

How about Joe Jordan? Another guy I've been defending. Well, looking at first and second round picks, I'm not sure his track record is any better. Rowell, Ryan Adams, Matt Hobgood, Xavier Avery, Mychal Givens, etc. Somehow, I think we're not going to end up like the Pirates any time soon with these guys.

We are as far away from being a decent team, as when we dealt Bedard to the Mariners. The cupboard is barren.
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Re: No longer a fan of MacPhail, and losing hope for Jordan

PostPost #2 by ofahn » July 21st, 2011, 7:54 pm

docjj,

I can understand your anger and frustration but I think you might be "throwing out the baby with the bath water".

I agree that this team has grown beyond MacPhail's ability to improve it. Let's give him credit where it's due. He convinced Angelos that "yes men" were not going to get the job done and that a much bigger investment was necessary in the farm system to build a winning team. He has traded for Jones, Hardy, Reynolds, and Tillman. IMO, his inability (or unwillingness) to be aggressive about making trades has caused him to miss opportunities and his obsession with squeezing the last nickel out of deals has cost us quality players (Miguel Sano - 2009, George Sherrill - 2010, etc.).

Also, IMO, Joe Jordan has done a good job with the budget he has been given to work with. 2008 was the first draft under MacPhail and the team went after "over slots" in the middle and late rounds that their budget had precluded before. Look at the 2008 draft:

Player Rnd Potential

Brian Matusz 1 Already in the majors
Xavier Avery 2 A 21 year old beginning to hit for average at AA
LJ Hoes 3 A 21 year old hitting for average at AA but needs work on his defense
Robert Bundy 8 A 21 year old becoming dominant at A
Greg Miclat 5 MLB utility
Caleb Joseph 7 MLB back up with power
Nicholas Haughian 9 #4 or 5 starter
Jesse Beal 14 #5 starter or reliever
Buck Britton 35 Ty Wiggington type
Oliver Drake 43 #5 starter or reliever
Kyle Hudson 4 MLB utility
Richard Zagone 6 Reliever
Nathan Moreau 11 Reliever
Jason Gurka 15 Reliever
Brian Conley 17 Reliever
Jarret Martin 19 #5 starter or reliever
Ronnie Welty 20 MLB back up with power
Eddie Gamboa 21 Reliever
Ryan O'Shea 27 Reliever

That's 20 players that have MLB potential and it's a fair guess that we're looking at at least two impact players and four regulars from that group. The 2009 and 2010 drafts have similar outlooks. If Jordan was given a bigger budget there might be more in the pipeline.

Part of the problem is that it normally takes about five years for the full impact of a draft to be felt at the major league level. We've seen everything we're going to get from the 2007 and earlier drafts so it will be 2013 before we can expect any real impact from ALL of the 2008 and beyond classes. That's not Jordan's fault.

The issue of why our prospects don't develop to the level of their potential can be blamed on MacPhail. He has done little to improve the quality of instruction in the minor league system and almost nothing to improve conditioning and nutrition on a system wide basis despite clear signs that it was a problem area. Look at Matt Albers. When he played for us I called him "Fat" Albers. I felt that if he got into shape he would be an effective pitcher. Did anyone see him pitch for the Sux the other day? He's lost about thirty pounds and three runs from his ERA.

While I agree that MacPhail is part of the problem and needs to go I see Jordan as part of the solution. Let's hope the next GM will tell Angelos what needs to be done and gets a budget that will allow him to do it.
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Re: No longer a fan of MacPhail, and losing hope for Jordan

PostPost #3 by rjc3 » July 21st, 2011, 10:59 pm

I agree, you cannot expect a group of stars from every draft.

Matusz (assuming he rebounds), is a solid #3 starter at worst. Bobby Bundy is looking like a solid 3 or 4 starter. Drake is looking like a possible reliever. Beal could still end up as a starter. You still have two potential regulars in Avery and Hoes.

That's a solid draft.
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Re: No longer a fan of MacPhail, and losing hope for Jordan

PostPost #4 by Jordan Tuwiner » July 21st, 2011, 11:33 pm

docjj wrote:I have stood up for the man for the past several years. I bought in to his "grow the arms" philosophy.

Now I'm glad his contract is up.

I was reading about the 51 win Pirates just now. There's a team that's been as bad as us or worse for about the same duration. Now they're a 51 win team. And us? Just look in the cellar like always.

Let's see how our wonderful arms are. Matusz? His fastball went from 94 MPH to 88. He can't get AAA hitters out. Tillman? Gee- the same thing. Fastball went from 95 MPH to 88 and he can't get AAA guys out. Britton- hot start, now back in Double-A. Bergesen- a flash in the pan. Arrieta- Probably doing the best, but his arm will probably fall off considering how many pitches it takes him to get through the 6th inning of most games.

How about Joe Jordan? Another guy I've been defending. Well, looking at first and second round picks, I'm not sure his track record is any better. Rowell, Ryan Adams, Matt Hobgood, Xavier Avery, Mychal Givens, etc. Somehow, I think we're not going to end up like the Pirates any time soon with these guys.

We are as far away from being a decent team, as when we dealt Bedard to the Mariners. The cupboard is barren.

Rowell is a bust but it's way too early to say on any of the others draft picks. Joe Jordan isn't the biggest issue. He brings in the talent, the O's just have trouble developing it.

Also, the Pirates don't play in the AL East and have been getting pretty lucky with their starting pitching.
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Re: No longer a fan of MacPhail, and losing hope for Jordan

PostPost #5 by rjc3 » July 23rd, 2011, 1:10 pm

Looking at the Pirates rotation, they have a bunch of 2-3 ERA pitchers with 4-5 FIPs.

We'll see how long they last...
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Re: No longer a fan of MacPhail, and losing hope for Jordan

PostPost #6 by DougDE » July 23rd, 2011, 5:04 pm

Ol Andy's been saying some absurd stuff lately. Claims they were 17th in international spending, then Baseball America says not hardly. Says you cant see international prospects in game action but multiple people in the know have disputed that. Then yesterday among other things he says 100% of the fans he's talked to have said they believe the team is on the right track and so on and so forth. We're not as dumb as the team is bad Andy. I was a fan of you until recently, now Im starting to buy into the idea that you think you're pulling the wool over our eyes
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Re: No longer a fan of MacPhail, and losing hope for Jordan

PostPost #7 by Don » July 24th, 2011, 12:37 pm

I am around enough circles to know when I see a guy with an eye for talent. Joe Jordan can pick them a part and also trusts his staff in later stages to pull the trigger.

Rowell was a guy that drooled with talent and was still likely a first round pick. Whether it was him or the organization, something did not click and he may never suit up in Baltimore. I would not write him off because the light switch could turn on with someone else.

Hobgood was a stud when I scouted him. I mean highly projectable and worth the price of admission. I was really high on Shelby Miller that season and was hoping one of these two landed in the later stages of round one. If I were Jordan, Miller was my choice, but maybe he did not get the feeling that Miller wanted to come to Baltimore. It does happen. Hobgood wanted to come and was a talented player ranked 15 or 16 on my board.

I feel like a broken record, but take my word it is not the scouting department with the issue. They have a keen eye for talent, but have to play with a strict budget. When you are hand cuffed, you take caution to select the right talent at the right price. This handicap is bad, but this is no fault on them. They do their best job with what they have to work with each season. If JJ had the ability to select without regards to price tag, this organization would still be highly ranked along side the other AL East teams. I know this and many other baseball circles will say the exact same things.

Be lucky that you have a talent evaluator with his skills. If he is someone how gone, it is 48 hrs before that man has another high ranking job in another organization.
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Re: No longer a fan of MacPhail, and losing hope for Jordan

PostPost #8 by ofahn » July 24th, 2011, 1:38 pm

Hobgood was a stud when I scouted him. I mean highly projectable and worth the price of admission. I was really high on Shelby Miller that season and was hoping one of these two landed in the later stages of round one. If I were Jordan, Miller was my choice, but maybe he did not get the feeling that Miller wanted to come to Baltimore. It does happen. Hobgood wanted to come and was a talented player ranked 15 or 16 on my board.


I don't necessarily blame Jordan for the Hobgood selection because I don't know what (if any) financial restrictions Joe was placed under for the 2009 draft.

I have always felt that Hobgood was a bad choice, NOT because he won't develop into a MLB pitcher but, because I felt we needed a pitcher that was close to MLB ready due to the lack of that in our system at the time. Hobgood may end up having a higher ceiling than Mike Leake but Leake would be a much better option to fill a starter's role than some of the other stiffs we have run out their lately.
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Re: No longer a fan of MacPhail, and losing hope for Jordan

PostPost #9 by Jordan Tuwiner » July 24th, 2011, 11:23 pm

ofahn wrote:I don't necessarily blame Jordan for the Hobgood selection because I don't know what (if any) financial restrictions Joe was placed under for the 2009 draft.

I have always felt that Hobgood was a bad choice, NOT because he won't develop into a MLB pitcher but, because I felt we needed a pitcher that was close to MLB ready due to the lack of that in our system at the time. Hobgood may end up having a higher ceiling than Mike Leake but Leake would be a much better option to fill a starter's role than some of the other stiffs we have run out their lately.

I don't think he was under financial restrictions. He just chose to go light with the first round pick so he could spend money on overslots.

2009 Significant Bonuses:
1. Matt Hobgood $2,422,000
2. Mychal Givens $800,000
3. Tyler Townsend, $417,600
4. Randy Henry $365,000
5. Ashur Tolliver $200,000
6. Justin Dalles $150,000
7. Aaron Wirsch $200,000
9. Ryan Berry $417,600
10. Jake Cowan $175,000
11. Michael Ohlman $995,000
14. David Baker $150,000
16. Ryan Palsha $140,000
18. Jarret Martin $250,000
21. Kevin Landry $105,000
22. Cameron Coffey $990,000
28. Kyle Hoppy $150,000
30. Brenden Webb $250,000
50. Tim Berry $125,000
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Re: No longer a fan of MacPhail, and losing hope for Jordan

PostPost #10 by ofahn » July 25th, 2011, 7:01 am

I don't think he was under financial restrictions. He just chose to go light with the first round pick so he could spend money on overslots.


I don't mean to split hairs BUT, for a system that was so completely lacking in talent at the point, it would seem to be a financial constraint if the scouting director wasn't given sufficient resources to obtain as much talent as possible. IMO, Jordan is STILL being hamstrung by an underfunded budget.
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Re: No longer a fan of MacPhail, and losing hope for Jordan

PostPost #11 by dan72 » July 25th, 2011, 8:16 am

Here is my problem with MacPhail. He is not sticking to his grow the arms policy. We can all agree the the common mark of all good teams is good pitching. Hernandez struggled as a starter but looked good out of the pen in the second half. He had the best fastball in the entire organization. So we trade him for a guy that will make 35 errors, strike out 200 times and bat a whopping .220. Yeah I know he can win games with the long ball but he can lose games with his glove so what have we gained by aquiring Reynolds??? As hard as pitching is to come by, I'd much rather have Hernandez back. He has been dominate as a reliever. Oh thats right we are good with relievers, we have two of the best in Gonzalez and Gregg....... Two more good pick ups by MacPhail.
The Pirates have a lights out closer, yet another position that we struggle with. how many games has Gregg blown, keep inmind he doesn't get many chances either. When you're up late in games you have to close them out.
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Re: No longer a fan of MacPhail, and losing hope for Jordan

PostPost #12 by dan72 » July 25th, 2011, 8:20 am

Joe Jordan-please draft some college pitching. These high school kids are long range projects at best. A complete roll of the dice. At least college kids have played at consistant level of competition.
Every day I wake up I wonder how different the Orioles would be with Tim Lincecum as our #1. Yeah we passed him up for who???
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Re: No longer a fan of MacPhail, and losing hope for Jordan

PostPost #13 by rjc3 » July 25th, 2011, 3:10 pm

ofahn wrote:
I don't think he was under financial restrictions. He just chose to go light with the first round pick so he could spend money on overslots.


I don't mean to split hairs BUT, for a system that was so completely lacking in talent at the point, it would seem to be a financial constraint if the scouting director wasn't given sufficient resources to obtain as much talent as possible. IMO, Jordan is STILL being hamstrung by an underfunded budget.


But he was given the resources to grab as much talent as possible. Instead of going all in at the top he spread out the money in order to add depth....but obviously not much of that has actually become depth because most of these guys have been injured or are not playing well.
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Re: No longer a fan of MacPhail, and losing hope for Jordan

PostPost #14 by rjc3 » July 25th, 2011, 3:12 pm

dan72 wrote:Here is my problem with MacPhail. He is not sticking to his grow the arms policy. We can all agree the the common mark of all good teams is good pitching. Hernandez struggled as a starter but looked good out of the pen in the second half. He had the best fastball in the entire organization. So we trade him for a guy that will make 35 errors, strike out 200 times and bat a whopping .220. Yeah I know he can win games with the long ball but he can lose games with his glove so what have we gained by aquiring Reynolds??? As hard as pitching is to come by, I'd much rather have Hernandez back. He has been dominate as a reliever. Oh thats right we are good with relievers, we have two of the best in Gonzalez and Gregg....... Two more good pick ups by MacPhail.
The Pirates have a lights out closer, yet another position that we struggle with. how many games has Gregg blown, keep inmind he doesn't get many chances either. When you're up late in games you have to close them out.
Dan72

Its debatable. Hernandez has been unbelievable and it would definitely be nice to have him and Reynolds' glove has cost us about 2 wins. But who else would be playing third? As bad as Reynolds is it's nice to finally have a third baseman that can hit.
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Re: No longer a fan of MacPhail, and losing hope for Jordan

PostPost #15 by rjc3 » July 25th, 2011, 3:14 pm

dan72 wrote:Joe Jordan-please draft some college pitching. These high school kids are long range projects at best. A complete roll of the dice. At least college kids have played at consistant level of competition.
Every day I wake up I wonder how different the Orioles would be with Tim Lincecum as our #1. Yeah we passed him up for who???
Dan72


That happens every year. For any draft pick you can look at guys taken ahead that would have been better in your system. But yes, I would like to see them grab a college pitcher this year. There are so many young arms in the lower levels but Bobby Bundy is going to be the only legit pitching prospect at Bowie or above next year unless we grab a good college pitcher at the top.
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