Keith Law on 105.7 today: Farm System, Lack of Development

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Keith Law was on 105.7 today (listen here).

He basically said Baltimore does a good job getting talent into their system, but they need to sit down and figure out why all of the talent has failed to develop.

He basically asked: Why has Nick Markakis' production dropped off? Why isn't Wieters hitting? Where has Matusz's 94 mph fastball gone?

Law wondered if it was simply bad luck or if the Orioles are doing something wrong that needed to be fixed, but said he has no idea what's going on and wishes he could provide even a theory.

[Don]

Do you want my honest reason why Jake Arrieta is the only pitcher not to lose velocity? Have you looked at him closely. Solid hip and thigh development and the kid is around 11-13% bodyfat with muscles. He is tall and filled out at 225 pounds. He is a man and he trains like one too.

I look at the landscape of guys and where is the muscular development to reduce stress, improve conditioning, and take pressure off the daily grind. Have you seen Tim Hudson - workout warrior, Nolan Ryan - workout warrior, John Smoltz - workout warrior, Mike Mussina - Workout warrior, Jeremy Guithrie -workout warrior.

How often do you see Jeremy and Jake talk about biking in between starts and on road trips. These guys workout in many different fashions to maintain lower strenght and what do you know they still pump 94-95-96 mph.

These guys have to work twice as hard in the 2-3 month layoff to build for a long season. Try and best maintain what you have going for you, while the summer months go on. Be a professional athlete and take care of what you were given...

[Don]

If this falls on the Orioles training and conditioning staff's, get rid of the whole bunch and bring some people into the program that have a clue about training professional athlete's in today's game of arm races.

[Don]

The other tidbit and I have always said this for years, the budget for the overall international/draft front should be 8 figures each year, roughly 15 million for 3 or 4 season. Allow Joe Jordan the ability to trust the ranks and grab anyone they can at any stage and spend 300k plus on players, roughly 15-20 a season. Allocate 4 or 5 guys a season that you will give 500k plus, on both fronts.

Give the emphasis on conditioning and training from day one to build the foundation from the ground up. If you have the base body down pact, it makes it gravy to pitch, hit, etc... Change the way you develop guys. Something is wrong, it's broke, and it needs fixing.

These are the two fronts that sorely need address until the Orioles can be year in and year out successful.

[Rising O's]

I can certainly be way off base here but...

It will not get better as long as the GM says things like "I have no idea why some guys in the DSL had a jump in velocity this year". Its your job to know what training regimens your development staff uses on the players to account for improvement. And this evaluation has to be done on a year to year basis until you figure out some formula to maximize potential. Its like these old guys are still living in the dark ages where they think if you just play more, you either get better or you don't. You pay these players a lot of money, and it seems there is still too much of a hands off approach, when you should be more involved in setting year round training goals.

I've said this before but I felt Jordan expressed some frustration on this front when talking about Hobgood a couple of years ago.

Thanks for the interview link.

[ofahn]

For YEARS I've been trying to get other fans to understand and accept my opinion that this teams two biggest problems are:

HORRIBLE nutrition and conditioning habits
INSUFFICIENT funding for amateur talent

You're preaching to the choir in my case.

[Rising O's]

I'm glad to hear some industry insiders have doubts about Markakis too. He's looked like a guy just doing enough to keep people off his back.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

I'm glad to hear some industry insiders have doubts about Markakis too. He's looked like a guy just doing enough to keep people off his back.

If only he could once again become the 6.3 fWAR player he was in 2008...

[Don]

There is nothing wrong with Nick Markakis. He has taken hardcore for nutrition and workout, but reduced the calories to stay fit long term. He is no longer the 200 guy that looked like he could get a bit larger. I say he is around a fit 185 -190 frame. He looks more or less as a throwback player from late '60's to early '80's. The reduced mass has zapped a bit of stuff out of his game. He is still on pace for 200 hits, first time in his career. He still could hit for 30 doubles and make 15 homeruns. He tends to do his most damage to the baseball around July and August.

Guys have to remember that he is now a family man. Little known fact that both marriage and kids turn you game inside out as you adjust to the new lifestyle. By no means an excuse, but being around the game in the same capacities, I understand some things that make you look funny.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

There is nothing wrong with Nick Markakis. He has taken hardcore for nutrition and workout, but reduced the calories to stay fit long term. He is no longer the 200 guy that looked like he could get a bit larger. I say he is around a fit 185 -190 frame. He looks more or less as a throwback player from late '60's to early '80's. The reduced mass has zapped a bit of stuff out of his game. He is still on pace for 200 hits, first time in his career. He still could hit for 30 doubles and make 15 homeruns. He tends to do his most damage to the baseball around July and August.

Yes, but that's because he's walking less to he's getting more actual at-bats. The 200 hit paces is actually bad because it's taking away from his OBP.

[Don]

But you can flip it around and say his is on pace for his lowest strikeout total in his career. The numbers are a bit perplexing on him because this is lowest BABIP and ISO, but still comes out with an OPS of 100.

It is tied into the doubles, not homeruns, as why this is considered his weakest offensive productive season. To boot, he has regessed defensively and his defense cannot help bump up his WAR. If he were say, -.3 or -.4 at this point with a WAR of 1.0-1.4 people would think he is simply just keeping status quo.

I still think the family aspect is taking the toll. He is in transition and only he know. It is not the lack of preparation, conditioning that is holding him back. It has to be 100% mental and could it be the daily grind that losing brings, maybe.

[Rising O's]

I'm worried about a guy who is not showing the energy level that he had earlier in his career and whose slugging % has fallen off the cliff. If its diet related he should make adjustments. If its family not much you can do but the pressure will mount as the salary rises.

[DougDE]

Guys have to remember that he is now a family man. Little known fact that both marriage and kids turn you game inside out as you adjust to the new lifestyle

My dad thinks this is his baseball problem also. Probably has some merit. Id imagine in most professions, if your personal life is busy, then your professional life can suffer

[dan72]

you guys are on the right track. Its a long season, playing in hot humid weather, on the road, eating at odd hours, etc... You have to be in shape. Clearly some of our players are not.
Has anyone thought that maybe the drop off in Markakis is partly due to frustration? He knows that he can hit 25 homers, walk 150 times, and hit 40 doubles and we will still be a last place team.

[Rising O's]

I call that quitting Dan72. I want to see a guy doing every thing he can to make the Orioles better. Looking at his SB attempts they are down, under 10 the past two years. This is something he can do to help his team score more runs by getting himself in scoring position. But he does not run, why not? Its not like we've had some line-ups that prevent it and he does have the ability to steal 75% of the time. I think it comes down to will, and I have my doubts (as do industry insiders) that he has the will.

Markakis finally had a great month of July, we'll see if it continues. I think he needs to be put in the #3 spot with Jones at #4 and let them try to carry the team.