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O's won't be big players in 2011 international market

Re: O's won't be big players in 2011 international market

PostPost #16 by ofahn » July 11th, 2011, 3:02 pm

The Orioles are seriously lacking in talent throughout their system, both majors and minors.

I see this as the result of meddling by Peter Angelos in a large degree from the late 90s until the hiring of Andy MacPhail (AAM after MacPhail), and to a much lesser degree after that. Because we had "yes men" as GMs before MacPhail (BAM before MacPhail)we had bad trades, pathetic talent evaluations, and horrible drafts. That situation has improved AAM but not enough to repair the damage that was done to the talent base on this team.

The trouble started with the 1999 draft when we had seven picks between selections 13 and 50 which resulted in just ONE MLB regular, Brian Roberts. Of course, the reason we had all of those choices was the exodus of a flood of talent in free agency. A loss that you could argue this team has NEVER recovered from.

Our 2000 draft did not produce a MLB regular and our return from the 2001 draft was Jim Johnson. The 2002 draft produced a trio of Orioles' legends: Adam Loewen, Hayden Penn, and Brandon Fahey. Things improved a bit in 2003 with Nick Markakis and Chris Ray but 2004's only contribution was Brad Bergesen. 2005 resulted in Nolan Reimold and David Hernandez along with a group of players still in the farm system but no longer considered top level prospects. 2006 produced Zach Britton, Jason Berken, Ryan Adams, and Blake Davis but Andy Mac lost Pedro Beato in the Rule 5 draft.

Finally, in 2007 we started seeing impact players like Matt Weiters and Jake Arrieta being drafted as well as legitimate prospect Joe Mahoney and the quality and quantity of talent has improved since then.

What does all of this mean? It means that the Orioles' boat had some REALLY BIG holes in it and you can't fix those holes with thin patches you find in the bargain bin. Andy MacPhail seems to think that prudent spending is the best way to go. In his interview with Steve Melewski posted on MASN http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2011/07/part-two-andy-macphail-on-the-orioles-international-efforts.html he made this very clear:

SM - Were the O's one of the finalists for Miguel Sano?

AM - "Yeah. What we did with Sano is we valued him where we thought he'd go in the draft and made an offer commensurate with that, and he did better."

SM - So what he signed for was more than your final offer?

AM - "Yeah, by a good margin. Not that we were lowballing him, but by a good margin. We had the advantage of having Sano in our camp playing games. So we went out and made a first-round type of offer, but where we would have thought he'd go in the first round. He said, 'I can do better,' and he did it."

That philosophy might be acceptable under normal circumstances BUT I would consider our serious lack of talent to be an emergency and, I think most of you will agree, spending habits should become a bit looser in an emergency.

The only way that Peter Angelos can fix what he has broken is to make a substantial investment into our player development process so that we can build the VERY BEST FARM SYSTEM IN BASEBALL. If it's done right, whatever money is spent to do that will be returned three fold in the increased attendance generated by a winning team AND young impact players at lower salaries.

I have always considered Angelos a bad owner but a good business man. He can fix that by accepting the error of his ways and replacing MacPhail with a more aggressive GM that has been given an open check book to buy a farm system that will support a consistently winning team. That includes becoming a serious player in the International Draft.
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Re: O's won't be big players in 2011 international market

PostPost #17 by Jordan Tuwiner » July 13th, 2011, 12:13 am

I agree with everything you said, ofahn.

MASN's Steve Melewski published an interview with Baseball America's Ben Badler today. Badler basically proved all of MacPhail's excuses as to why the Orioles don't spend money or resources into the international market to be untrue.

MacPhail said it's hard to see players in game action, Badler says it's up to the team on how much they can see a player unless the player's trainer/agent is holding him out of games. There are 2 leagues in which these players can be scouted in game action.

MacPhail said O's are middle of the pack when it comes to international spending, Badler says they were 27th.

Link: http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewsk ... forts.html
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Re: O's won't be big players in 2011 international market

PostPost #18 by Don » July 13th, 2011, 10:16 am

Jordan....I think I said something earlier that a lot of the pressure points that McPhail put out at the conference was absurb and un-founded as well. With that being said, I cannot sit and say the Orioles should give out the 5.5 million and 3 plus million bonuses to sign the featured players from the DPL. I want to see them go after players, but I really do not feel anyone from this class ranks in the top 10. A great deal of last first and sandwhich types from this class would justify the 1.5 to 600k range.

Some of this also sits on the shoulders of Dave Stockstill, who I know is not a guy that the Orioles fans like one bit. He ranks them, he leads the scouting efforts on the international front, and he makes the final call to Andy. Andy is only good as the directors and the directors are only as good as thier crosscheckers and area guys. I think some of the blame has not hit his shoulders and it rightfully should as well.
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Re: O's won't be big players in 2011 international market

PostPost #19 by A_K » July 13th, 2011, 11:01 am

To be fair, Badler did say that he agrees with a lot of McPhail's concerns over the guys who get the big signing bonuses, and also said that teams have behaved irrationally so far this year. His primary take seemed to be, "McPhail's concerns are well-founded, but he should offer more of the conservative contracts that are the majority of their international signings." He had good things to say about Eduardo Rodriguez, for instance.
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Re: O's won't be big players in 2011 international market

PostPost #20 by Jordan Tuwiner » July 13th, 2011, 12:55 pm

Don wrote:Jordan....I think I said something earlier that a lot of the pressure points that McPhail put out at the conference was absurb and un-founded as well. With that being said, I cannot sit and say the Orioles should give out the 5.5 million and 3 plus million bonuses to sign the featured players from the DPL. I want to see them go after players, but I really do not feel anyone from this class ranks in the top 10. A great deal of last first and sandwhich types from this class would justify the 1.5 to 600k range.

Some of this also sits on the shoulders of Dave Stockstill, who I know is not a guy that the Orioles fans like one bit. He ranks them, he leads the scouting efforts on the international front, and he makes the final call to Andy. Andy is only good as the directors and the directors are only as good as thier crosscheckers and area guys. I think some of the blame has not hit his shoulders and it rightfully should as well.

They don't need to shell out million dollar bonuses. If they can hand out a bunch of $100,000 bonuses and get a legit prospect or two from a pool of 15 or so guys, that would be enough.

It's been said before but teams like the Rockies do this so well. They hand out ton of small bonuses with no big signings and find themselves as one of the top teams at developing international talent.
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Re: O's won't be big players in 2011 international market

PostPost #21 by Jordan Tuwiner » July 13th, 2011, 12:57 pm

A_K wrote:To be fair, Badler did say that he agrees with a lot of McPhail's concerns over the guys who get the big signing bonuses, and also said that teams have behaved irrationally so far this year. His primary take seemed to be, "McPhail's concerns are well-founded, but he should offer more of the conservative contracts that are the majority of their international signings." He had good things to say about Eduardo Rodriguez, for instance.

Still, everything MacPhail said seems like more of an excuse rather than an actual reason. If the Orioles wanted to have a larger presence in Latin America they have the power to do so.

Add an academy in Latin America and start handing out more of those conservative contracts, but add more scouts down there and make sure those small contracts count and are well thought out. The Orioles have the power to do this which is why I'm not buying what MacPhail says.
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Re: O's won't be big players in 2011 international market

PostPost #22 by Don » July 13th, 2011, 1:43 pm

Jordan

They already have an academy and share it with the Brewers organization. They have hosted a number of guys to workout and game showcases, but those are few and far between. The Orioles have extensive background work, but do not have the larger scale of personal or resources to have the better players come in for two weeks of games into their facility.

Still being said, the DPL is large and extensive enough to see enough games to get a sense of worth. They train and perform baseball activites.

I agree with McPhail that game action is required to properly evaluate, but that is not the only aspect they need to scout. I want to hear the ball off the bat in the cage. These kids are using wood and you can tell a great deal of things with the sound off the bat. You want to see if it is prolonged. You see what you can work with from the cage. I like see routine practices, does the kid take them seriously. does he charge in every opportunity, does the prospect have repetitive footwork practice.

Again game action is the true test, but these other aspects give you a rough idea to make a call about value of player. At least enough to say to his people, hey I want you to come by for a few days and work out with our guys. If these DPL kids have nothing to hide, they will go.

The Orioles have some good people down in the areas, the two better eyes are from the Dutch Islands and Ven. and just so happens the best international talent in the organization are from those areas. Maybe it is wise to pick and bring the Director of International Scouting from maybe an area scout from say the Rangers or Rockies to build up the area scouts to improve the overall landscape. This is more than spending, they have little to no ties to the foundation of the carribean. This is just my opinion.
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Re: O's won't be big players in 2011 international market

PostPost #23 by Jordan Tuwiner » July 13th, 2011, 2:04 pm

Don wrote:They already have an academy and share it with the Brewers organization. They have hosted a number of guys to workout and game showcases, but those are few and far between. The Orioles have extensive background work, but do not have the larger scale of personal or resources to have the better players come in for two weeks of games into their facility.

My question is why MacPhail acts as if this is impossible to do. Build up the necessary resources and make the changes. Other teams are doing, so the Orioles should too.

Even with the concerns over steroids and faked ages, it's simply an area where the Orioles can't just sit back and let other teams build advantages over Baltimore.

Don wrote:I agree with McPhail that game action is required to properly evaluate, but that is not the only aspect they need to scout. I want to hear the ball off the bat in the cage. These kids are using wood and you can tell a great deal of things with the sound off the bat. You want to see if it is prolonged. You see what you can work with from the cage. I like see routine practices, does the kid take them seriously. does he charge in every opportunity, does the prospect have repetitive footwork practice.

Don't they already have the ability to see this? The issue is that they are only allowed to watch certain prospects take drills, but can't see them in games.
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Re: O's won't be big players in 2011 international market

PostPost #24 by Don » July 13th, 2011, 2:44 pm

I am not fully entrenched in their area and where they stand. Certain clubs get guys to routinely come into camps and play games, get a sense of their worth. The Orioles did get Sano to do this very thing, but how many do they actually get.

In my honest opinion, the whole system needs to be re-tooled. They have a few good guys, but where is the direction, if they cannot get the Guzman's, etc.... to at least show up and play two weeks. Guzman played a great deal of games in the DPL. As did so many other prospects.

Do they need more scouts, do they need to hire a better director to grab better contacts, scouts, etc... I do not know. I suspect this is the crux of the problem. They are playing the game, but do they have the right players for it to pay off?
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Re: O's won't be big players in 2011 international market

PostPost #25 by Rising O's » July 15th, 2011, 2:18 pm

Paying with Confederate money value. We value based on the controlled environment of the rule 4 draft. Everyone else realizes that those rules to not apply. Disconnect anywhere? Until today's realities, "Not that we were lowballing him", sink into MacPhail's way of thinking we'll never compete with the more aggressive organizations. Not saying give out 3 million dollar contracts every year but don't make disingenuous excuses about making fair offers.

Sano specifically they brought in for two private workouts? They saw the ability obviously, they just don't have the stomach to pay the going rate.

Reality doesn't exist for me so i can do as I please you see.
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