ON's Mid-Season Top 30 Prospects

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Over the next two days, Dan, Don and I will publish our own top 30 prospect lists. Once all three have been published, we'll average the rankings to create one list.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Don's Mid-Season Top 30: http://orioles-nation.com/2011/07/12/dons-mid-season-top-30/

[Shorebirdfan]

Hey no peaking!! Hopefully you've all submitted your lists already. Already see a few from Don I'm not 100% sold about and some omissions. I'm sure his thoughts are much more scientific than my fan view, but think I'll hold my thoughts until all lists are up.

I've got my top 15 figured out and know my 30 will contain at least 3 names not on Don's list.

Looking forward to some spirited thought sharing.

[Don]

Just to let you know, any player with one day of MLB service time was omitted from the lists. The likes of Matt Angle, Ryan Adams, Blake Davis, etc... are not on the list and would rank somewhere high enough to place.

I am not too big on lists per say and more concerned with grades over production, projection all relative to age. Guess it weighs this list to a bit. I am not a soothsayer either, so fluidity and omission is guaranteed. It is the reason why the likes of King Albert go in the 16th rounds of drafts, even the very best miss a great deal of times.

There were also a couple that I had a tough time leaving off the list, but did so for projection reasons. I like Eddie Gamboa, Choryne Spoone, Steve Johnson, etc... may have lost too much luster. They could still factor for majors in some shape. The Brenden Webb types have not progressed as I would have hoped and a slew of arms are not coming back solid and slight regression.

There are other guys I want to see a full season on them to get a better read. This list will be greatly altered with signings and larger sample size on a number of guys in short season ball, and complete seasons in lower tiers.

[Esskay]

Surprised to see Jesse Beal rank so highly, as he hasn't pitched at all this year. Not concerned about the injury?

Also, just for fun, where would you put Dylan Bundy on the list if he signed today?

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Surprised to see Jesse Beal rank so highly, as he hasn't pitched at all this year. Not concerned about the injury?

Also, just for fun, where would you put Dylan Bundy on the list if he signed today?

It is a concern but I'm guessing Don feels comfortable projecting to add some weight, which should help regain velocity lost due to the injury/surgery. But shoulder injuries are tough to come back from. Beal's not in my top 30.

I'd have Dylan Bundy at #2 between Machado and Schoop.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

My top 30: http://orioles-nation.com/2011/07/12/jo ... on-top-30/

Dan's list should be coming later tonight.

[Shorebirdfan]

Just to let you know, any player with one day of MLB service time was omitted from the lists. The likes of Matt Angle, Ryan Adams, Blake Davis, etc... are not on the list and would rank somewhere high enough to place.

Don does spring training count towards service time? I am not aware of Angle ever being called up to the majors.

[Esskay]

Jordan: don't understand the comments about Mahoney's "loss of power": he has a .500 SLG on the season (152 PA); if you look only at Bowie stats, it's .484. He put up a .498 SLG last season over two levels.

Similarly, 2010 ISO was .191, 2011 ISO is .197.

Have you seen something that suggests he isn't hitting the ball that hard? Because the numbers don't seem to suggest a loss of power.

[Shorebirdfan]

My top 30: http://orioles-nation.com/2011/07/12/jo ... on-top-30/

Dan's list should be coming later tonight.

OK so you included two of my three that Don did not have.
I am not not as high on Bridwell as both of you are. Where doe you see his ceiling? Is he a number 3 starter? Or is he a long term bullpen guy (For some reason every time I looked at him I saw bullpen guy).
Seen Tim Berry several times and just don't get your fascination with him. I know again it projectable, but he's going to need to add a lot to that 14 year olds frame he carries now.

More to come. I want to talk about 2B.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Jordan: don't understand the comments about Mahoney's "loss of power": he has a .500 SLG on the season (152 PA); if you look only at Bowie stats, it's .484. He put up a .498 SLG last season over two levels.

Similarly, 2010 ISO was .191, 2011 ISO is .197.

Have you seen something that suggests he isn't hitting the ball that hard? Because the numbers don't seem to suggest a loss of power.

Should be something about how he might not have enough power for first base. He hits a lot of doubles and a solid amount of HRs, but I'm not convinced he'll hit for enough power to become a true first base prospect.

I guess the issue isn't that the power has "disappeared", but more that I am worried about his power output in the future. I haven't seen him recently, but I have heard his swing is geared more towards hitting line drives and gap power.

Don may be able to weight in on his swing as I believe he was at Bowie a few days ago.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

OK so you included two of my three that Don did not have.
I am not not as high on Bridwell as both of you are. Where doe you see his ceiling? Is he a number 3 starter? Or is he a long term bullpen guy (For some reason every time I looked at him I saw bullpen guy).
Seen Tim Berry several times and just don't get your fascination with him. I know again it projectable, but he's going to need to add a lot to that 14 year olds frame he carries now.

More to come. I want to talk about 2B.

Bridwell has the ceiling of a #2/3 starter. This is the first season where he's been fully focused on baseball, and I'm guessing you think reliever because of his mechanics.

He needs to find a more consistent landing slot for his front foot and he does have a slight inverted W, which may make it seem like there's some effort to his delivery. The problems here should be fixed with more experience, time and coaching.

Berry's 6' 3" and only 180. Like you said he looks a lot younger, but that's exactly why I have him on my list; all projection. He's already in the low 90's and with some more muscle there will be more velocity to come. His breaking ball is impressive, too. Would not surprise me to see him add 2-3 mph and sit 91-94 mph eventually.

[Shorebirdfan]

OK lets talk 2B. I think we all look up and down the organization and see what we hope is the answer at many positions. Avery in CF (moving Jones to LF), Machado and Schoop on the left side of the IF, Matusz, Britton, Bundy, Tillman, Arietta, Bundy providing options in the rotation and Wieters catching until he is 40. One of the positions where the answer only creates more questions is at 2B (along with 1B). Roberts is past his prime, and we are getting by with mirrors currently using Harris and Andino. Ryan Adams has been up, but spent most of his time on the bench. According to both your lists, Hoes is the highest projected 2B in the minors (understanding the service time keeping Adams off the list, and feeling Hoes might still be higher). Givens, who was right there in ranking along side Hoes 3 months ago, continues to drop like a rock, and no one talks about Miclat at all (not on either list) despite being solid defensively, 31 for 31 on SB for the season and hitting .500 so far for the month. Also I should note, to this point it is Miclat playing 2B daily in Bowie, not Hoes.

I'll agree that Hoes projects higher, but is still learning the game after only dedicating himself to it a few seasons ago. So let me ask anyone who cares to discuss, where is Micalt's ceiling? As I recall while he was on Delmarva, he is a fundamentally solid player, strong D, great instincts on the bases (again 31 for 31). I get it ZERO power, but he seems like a throw back to what a lead off hitter looked like in the late 70's and early 80's. Do I simply need to stop trying to turn back the clock? Is he a utility guy at best or can he be an everyday MLB player? Are he and Adams simply stop gaps until Hoes is ready? Jordan as you pointed out, as an OF, Hoes loses much of his luster and becomes (in my opinion) just another player. No stronger a proppect than Trent Mummey or Kyle Hudson. Where does everyone think we are heading at this spot?

[Don]

Beal has been in extended spring training and this is basically a build back season, and with Jordan getting Wright on the side field I was surprised he was not on the back lot throwing as well. He is adding weight and saw some never damage. I feel fairly confident that he would be back full swing and like his command. He is a guy you can easily take off your list and worthy debatable player.

I am not a big fan of Berry either, but I may be the only one who likes Jarret Martin. These things happen within scouting circles as well. I once screamed at the hilltop for a pick seasons ago from my organization and team went in another direction. My selection was in MLB 4 seasons later and their guy never made it past AA. These things happen.

Bridwell is simply because of stuff. He has a nice arsenal of pitches and once command comes to play, he could sky rocket up the boards. Remember no one thought much of Robert Bundy either and the light went on and he is the best arm in the minor system.

[Don]

Regarding Greg Miclat:

I like his game, but he has regressed defensively in my view. He did not hit at all for a good two months and 10 days is nothing to keep me from thinking any more. If he can hit respectably for the remainder of the season, he enters the discussion with the group of Britton, Davis of utility role player.

I feel watching both, Buck Britton is the logical choice in my eyes. Again this is my view and other may not agree. Britton has power numbers to rival Miclat in 1/3 the games and simply has a tremendous season. The rights might be wrong overtime, but at this stage I thought Britton deserved the nod over him.