O's Theory of Promotions

[Shorebirdfan]

OK once again I am reaching out to the experts who regularly contribute to this site for answers to a questions I have long had. It seems to me that the O's rush promoting young talent compared to other organizations. I have understood why they do this. Anyone see Bryce Harper promoted yet? No, despite the numbers he has put up to this point.

In looking at some of the promotions we've seen so far, only Shutz made sense given his age (23) in, at the time Low A. I didn't agree with moving Klein after only I believe 7 games, I didn't agree with moving Mummey so quickly, and I think the rushing of Schoop to high A at this time is simply ridiculous. Is he hitting the ball? Yes, does that mean he is ready for the next level? No. Defensively, he needs a lot of work on his footwork and path to the ball. This has, in part lead to his 17 errors so far.

Hey, Bundy is having a good year, lets throw him in Bowie or even Norfolk!

My guess is the answer is this allows both Machado and Schoop to play SS, but what happens in 4 weeks when they decide to promote Machado to Frederick?

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Thanks for bringing this up. It's a good topic and there are a lot of different opinions on this.

With pitchers I think they need one season at every level no matter what. Even if a guy has put up Bobby Bundy like numbers for half a season, I would leave the player at the given level no matter who it is. There is always going to be a rare case like Strasburg, or maybe even a Matusz, but even guys like Jeremy Hellickson have benefited from extra time in the minors, and the results are there to back it up. Hellickson probably didn't need the 3 years at AAA, but the experience he gained there gave the Rays a starter who was balanced and ready for a major league job. There are so many things pitchers need to learn in the minors that there is just no reason to rush them.

With hitters you can be a bit more lenient. In Schoop's there are a ton of factors that I'd consider before making a move. I think guys like Harper are cocky, and the Nationals don't want to be too pushy. I think they fear if Harper gets the bump to A+ and struggles, he won't know what to do with himself because he's never done anything but dominate.

In Schoop's case, I am fine with the promotion. He is the type of guy that will welcome the challenge of a promotion/tougher competition, and if he does struggle will work to improve on whatever he needs. You have to remember that Schoop's bonus was probably around $1,000 - $2,000, while guys like Harper are set. These international guys live's essentially revolve around baseball, and if there was any guy in the org. I would be quick to promote I think it would be Schoop. Does he need to improve his defense? Sure. But I think with him a promotion will only encourage him to work harder and create momentum that will only contribute to his success and improvement.

Guys like Klein and Schrader who are simply dominating and are clearly overpowering I think it's fine to promote them. Mummey I don't think I would have promoted.

[allstar1579]

The O's aggressiveness is actually recent. There were a long couple of years where they wouldn't promote when guys were ready. They are going with a challenge method right now, but there is no way to say that more or less time in the minors is right either way. A guy could put up better numbers spending 3 years at a level out of learning the hitters and tricks to get by that won't work at the next level anyway. It's hard to tell when a guy is really ready unless they get to the next level and are overmatched.

It's misleading but some of the guys with quick promotions are guys that they felt should be at the higher level, but for caution they'd start them a level down and see how they do, if they show mastery of the stuff they should be learning down there, move them up, don't waste their time. Klein could have started the season in Bowie out of the pen, no question for me, starting maybe he should have started in A ball, but as a RP, he's going to overmatch the A hitters. The difference most times is the secondaries. A ball hitters can hit FB, but most of them have trouble with good secondaries, you don't see guys who can hit them until you get to AA, so if you have a guy like Matusz or Klein you are wasting time starting them against hitters that have no chance. Matusz was an interesting case because he actually had to learn how to pitch with his FB, which is why he went to A ball. He would pitch backwards (using the FB as the out pitch when guys would sit on the secondaries) in college, and even still in the low minors. I watched him do it one night in Bowie when his curve and change were real sharp.

[Shorebirdfan]

I'd be interested in hearing what everyone thinks of the promotion of Machado following tomorrow's All Star game? I know everyone can't wait for this kid to get to the bigs, but he hasn't looked the same since returning from his injury. (Hitting only .182 in 13 games). It is obvious watching this kid he is an elite talent, I just think I'd let him stay a couple weeks until the stroke returns, then promote him.

[Don]

When John Stockstill took over, I had thought this organization might change in tactics. No matter how aggressive or passive he approaches each player, it comes with good and bad consequences. I think the passive nature in the past towards hitters has completely changed and maybe the Orioles start to produce a bat here or there to the major leagues with some sucess. Maybe holding back the arms a bit more will allow them to properly learn everything on the farm and no longer on the fly while being on the major league roster.

It is possible that both could blow up in the organizations face, but who knows. I am glad to see some tactical changes in player development becuase status quo was not working at every position.

It also should be noted that they are no longer going cheap to bring players into the fold and have been signing over-slotted guys over the years. When you bring better players, you should get better results.

[bird's fan]

I'm looking at stats and noticed Webb at Delmarva has struck out 105 times. In talking to some buddies there, Delmarva , they say he's taking 3rd call strikes by the dozen. There has got to be someone at Aberdeen or GCL that should get a chance to move up and send Webb down to learn how to hit. He has upside on defense but you learn in Little league to protect with two strikes and foul pitches off. Any suggestions on who should get a promotion?

[ofahn]

I'm looking at stats and noticed Webb at Delmarva has struck out 105 times. In talking to some buddies there, Delmarva , they say he's taking 3rd call strikes by the dozen. There has got to be someone at Aberdeen or GCL that should get a chance to move up and send Webb down to learn how to hit. He has upside on defense but you learn in Little league to protect with two strikes and foul pitches off. Any suggestions on who should get a promotion?

Glynn Davis is TEARING UP the NY Penn League.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

I'm looking at stats and noticed Webb at Delmarva has struck out 105 times. In talking to some buddies there, Delmarva , they say he's taking 3rd call strikes by the dozen. There has got to be someone at Aberdeen or GCL that should get a chance to move up and send Webb down to learn how to hit. He has upside on defense but you learn in Little league to protect with two strikes and foul pitches off. Any suggestions on who should get a promotion?

I think it is all in Webb's head. His swing is fairly smooth and he has some good bat speed, just hasn't been able put the bat on the ball; whether that's from not swinging or what. You have to like the walk rate but that also is likely a result of working the count to 3-2 and then just not swinging.

I wouldn't send him down quite yet. If there were to be a promotion there's really no one at Aberdeen or the GCL, but maybe you give it to Knight or Serrata.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

I'm looking at stats and noticed Webb at Delmarva has struck out 105 times. In talking to some buddies there, Delmarva , they say he's taking 3rd call strikes by the dozen. There has got to be someone at Aberdeen or GCL that should get a chance to move up and send Webb down to learn how to hit. He has upside on defense but you learn in Little league to protect with two strikes and foul pitches off. Any suggestions on who should get a promotion?

Glynn Davis is TEARING UP the NY Penn League.

He is, but the's still only 19 years old. Unless the Orioles feel he's extremely advanced -- which, honestly, is not out of the question -- only then would I send him to Delmarva. I'm sure he could hold his own there.

He's already making the Orioles look very good for getting him as an undrafted free agent.

[ofahn]

I'm looking at stats and noticed Webb at Delmarva has struck out 105 times. In talking to some buddies there, Delmarva , they say he's taking 3rd call strikes by the dozen. There has got to be someone at Aberdeen or GCL that should get a chance to move up and send Webb down to learn how to hit. He has upside on defense but you learn in Little league to protect with two strikes and foul pitches off. Any suggestions on who should get a promotion?

Glynn Davis is TEARING UP the NY Penn League.

He is, but the's still only 19 years old. Unless the Orioles feel he's extremely advanced -- which, honestly, is not out of the question -- only then would I send him to Delmarva. I'm sure he could hold his own there.

He's already making the Orioles look very good for getting him as an undrafted free agent.

Some development people like the idea of advancing a player to the level of their first failure. It seems to get the player's attention which translates into accepting the coaching offered. It seems we have done this with Machado and Schoop, and both players are making the necessary adjustments. That's a clear sign of good things to come.

I like this approach AS LONG AS the player is not allowed to advance BEYOND AA ball without being able to demonstrate the ability to successfully execute the skills necessary to contribute at the Major League level.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

Some development people like the idea of advancing a player to the level of their first failure. It seems to get the player's attention which translates into accepting the coaching offered. It seems we have done this with Machado and Schoop, and both players are making the necessary adjustments. That's a clear sign of good things to come.

I like this approach AS LONG AS the player is not allowed to advance BEYOND AA ball without being able to demonstrate the ability to successfully execute the skills necessary to contribute at the Major League level.

I'll second this. When I was in the GCL I spoke with a Twins coach and he was telling me (summary):

Every player has something that got them to the minors. It's obvious these players have skills, but it's hard to develop tools when the player is used to being so good and has never struggled. He went on to say that if a player has a swing that has always worked for them, the player isn't going to listen about changes that need to be made until there are issues and struggles.

I think it's definitely more important for players like Machado, Harper etc. so it's nice to see Machado finally turning the corner.

[Don]

I agree to an extent with Milt, but it really comes down to trust. I had a solid relationships with the roving pitching instructor, team pitching coaches. I always was the type of person that felt comfortable enough to realize that it was all about making me a better pitcher. Even after a blew out my hip, it made it even more specific with retired pitchers and a slew of pitching instructors.

What I fear is taking place in these clubhouses is a failure to communicate. I think there is no driving force that pushes these guys to the brink. If the authority lacks that drive, what does that instill to the players? Some guys are simply hungry and no matter what they will taste success, but as with life most need to be pushed.

I really wish I could divulge so much more information about my thoughts, but this is not the time or place for me to push my complete two cents. All I can say is that this approach does not work and it really needs a complete overhaul.