Who do you want?

[DougDE]

If the Orioles had 1st pick who would you want them to take?

[Shorebirdfan]

1st pick overall? I would take Rendon. I think he is still clearly the player of this draft. Projecting to play 2B and O's fans, I hate to break this news to all of you. We need a 2B. Roberts is done.

Sitting where we are, at 4, I want Bundy.

[DougDE]

I think I want Cole then Bundy. I know velocity isnt everything but I saw a tweet last night that Cole hit 102 in his outing last night. Some scout/analysts seem to think there's ways that Cole might actually be available at 4. But probably more realisticly I also want Bundy. Rendon scares me with the injuries and the possible position change

[Don]

You should be glad the Orioles have the 4th slot this year. I have a group of 5 that are above the other classes and the only issue would be in one of the top three go against my thoughts and would leave 3 to choose from at this point.

Cole - Plus-Plus fastball, Plus-Plus Change up and working on two other pitches that are average at this time. I think he has a good chance of solid three plus pitches. As I said in previous write ups about him, I would teach him a cutter and I think he is completely sound to be a future Cy Young candidate.

Rendon - I am not worried about injuries, see Jeff Neimann, and think long term he is a solid +.300 hitter with an eye and gym rat to continue to work aspects that might make him a top 10 hitter long term. I think he build on his frame and I do not see why his gap power would not turn to home run capacity. I thought last season he was a a guy with the chance at +30, but still not too shabby to be a +20 that he could play any position on the infield. I think his arm is underrated and logically I feel that he will stay at third. Him moving to second on the other hand will increase his value.

Bundy - I have not seen a high school kid since Josh Beckett with this much going for him at his age. People can have Tallion because Bundy is a work horse that already has base knowledge of how to pitch. This kid is above a JUCO pitcher and well close to what you see out of a Junior in College. He will have the chance for at least two plus or better pitches and four pitches above major league average.

Bauer - I am not concerned mechanically or about his workload at this time. His stuff is no less appreciable compare to the already mentioned cast. He does not get it up to their speed, but 96-97 is nothing to sneeze at this time. He does have command and control problems, but I feel it is correctable longterm.

Archie Bradley - The kid can drop the hammer and has a triple digit fastball to match. I am a bit concerned about the work ethic and he will take longer to adjust to the professional game. I have to remember that he is simply a kid and should adjust as he matures. He is my dark horse selection for the Orioles.

[Jordan Tuwiner]

I'm leaning more towards Cole or Bundy and away from Rendon. I think I'm leaning more towards Bundy at this point. If we fast forward a few years I have no doubt in my mind Bundy would be ahead of where Cole is right now.

[allstar1579]

You should be glad the Orioles have the 4th slot this year. I have a group of 5 that are above the other classes and the only issue would be in one of the top three go against my thoughts and would leave 3 to choose from at this point.

Cole - Plus-Plus fastball, Plus-Plus Change up and working on two other pitches that are average at this time. I think he has a good chance of solid three plus pitches. As I said in previous write ups about him, I would teach him a cutter and I think he is completely sound to be a future Cy Young candidate.

Rendon - I am not worried about injuries, see Jeff Neimann, and think long term he is a solid +.300 hitter with an eye and gym rat to continue to work aspects that might make him a top 10 hitter long term. I think he build on his frame and I do not see why his gap power would not turn to home run capacity. I thought last season he was a a guy with the chance at +30, but still not too shabby to be a +20 that he could play any position on the infield. I think his arm is underrated and logically I feel that he will stay at third. Him moving to second on the other hand will increase his value.

Bundy - I have not seen a high school kid since Josh Beckett with this much going for him at his age. People can have Tallion because Bundy is a work horse that already has base knowledge of how to pitch. This kid is above a JUCO pitcher and well close to what you see out of a Junior in College. He will have the chance for at least two plus or better pitches and four pitches above major league average.

Bauer - I am not concerned mechanically or about his workload at this time. His stuff is no less appreciable compare to the already mentioned cast. He does not get it up to their speed, but 96-97 is nothing to sneeze at this time. He does have command and control problems, but I feel it is correctable longterm.

Archie Bradley - The kid can drop the hammer and has a triple digit fastball to match. I am a bit concerned about the work ethic and he will take longer to adjust to the professional game. I have to remember that he is simply a kid and should adjust as he matures. He is my dark horse selection for the Orioles.

Different takes on a couple of these guys.

Cole - 4S is plus plus on pure stuff alone, everyone has seen the 102mph readings and seen some of the crazy movement. His 2S doesn't come as fast, but does move in more. His slider is flashing plus-plus coming in a good 10-15mph slower than the FB and is a swing and miss pitch already. He does have a cutter which is basically a harder version of his slider, comes in closer to 90mph and has later break but not as much of it, also has plus-plus potential, but he probably blends it and his slider together in the pros. The change is actually the work in progress, and I've heard it's made big steps this year, but it's his weakest pitch, yet still flashing plus ability.

Rendon- I think the power comes back once his shoulder is healthy, but I think you are looking at some rehab and possibly a scope of the shoulder before that happens. I don't think the arm plays long term at 3B, but when coupled with the glove you leave him there, he's a gold glover and makes up for the arm with it.

Bundy- I think he's amazing, but I'd take Taillon over him because of the size difference. Very similar stuff between the two, but give me the 6-7 kid over the 6-2 kid.

Bauer- I think the pitch counts catch up to him sooner than later. It's not because of mechanics, it's in his head, he likes to nibble and try to set batters up, overthinking and getting into high pitch battles with hitters, he's a smart guy, but he thinks way too much.

Bradley- I'm not a fan personally, mostly because I don't like dealing with talented kids that don't want to put in the hard work. Seems like a good pick for the Cubs.

[Don]

Cole is basically a two pitch pitcher right now. He uses the combo of 4 seam and 2 seam. He mixes pressure on the fingers to produce a sink on the two seamer or a cut on the two seamer, but the movement is not sharp enough to classify either as a set type of pitch. His 4 seamer is a good grab 96-97 and will reach triple digits. I tend to think he can sit with his 95-96 range as a starter with better command and maybe a tick better control. He still throws a slider and you can see the wrist snap. Up close, it can look like a cutter live because he still needs to work on his consistency. On the digital feeds, I can zoom in rather close to see it. I think we both agree that his ceiling is the same, but I think he still needs to refine his overall repitore to think he has a full arsenal of plus stuff.

I think I might be the only person to openly say anything about Bradley's slow start. I know a lot of people within his area and others that I talked to we agree that his youth is still in his game. He enjoys being a kid and it is okay. I get the feeling that when it is time to bring the lunch pail to work, he will right the ship. I like him a lot, if Cole and Bundy are off the board, but in all honesty I would not think to high or low if one of the top 12 on my board are selected.

I would like to see one of the grouped five selected. These are the ones with safer levels, but higher ceilings. I really like Danny Hultzen and Sonny Gray, but Hultzen is the type you can find any draft and there are a number of high school LHP in this class that project to become his type of pitcher. Gray could be a starter or could be a relief pitcher. I simply do not get the feel that will be an elite arm over others in this class. Jack Armstrong could bring similar results and at a fraction of the cost. Both Jungmann and Meyer have converted me this season to think both could be quality pitchers. I do not hold Lindor or Starling in my top 12 and feel there are other players that could be just as good or better long term without the risk involved with turing raw tools into skills.

The one guy I would be shocked to see picked, but also happy is Josh Bell. I think he is raw, but I see a lot less refinements in his swing to think his learning curve is not as long as the previous mentioned two high schoolers.

[allstar1579]

Cole is basically a two pitch pitcher right now. He uses the combo of 4 seam and 2 seam. He mixes pressure on the fingers to produce a sink on the two seamer or a cut on the two seamer, but the movement is not sharp enough to classify either as a set type of pitch. His 4 seamer is a good grab 96-97 and will reach triple digits. I tend to think he can sit with his 95-96 range as a starter with better command and maybe a tick better control. He still throws a slider and you can see the wrist snap. Up close, it can look like a cutter live because he still needs to work on his consistency. On the digital feeds, I can zoom in rather close to see it. I think we both agree that his ceiling is the same, but I think he still needs to refine his overall repitore to think he has a full arsenal of plus stuff.

I think I might be the only person to openly say anything about Bradley's slow start. I know a lot of people within his area and others that I talked to we agree that his youth is still in his game. He enjoys being a kid and it is okay. I get the feeling that when it is time to bring the lunch pail to work, he will right the ship. I like him a lot, if Cole and Bundy are off the board, but in all honesty I would not think to high or low if one of the top 12 on my board are selected.

I would like to see one of the grouped five selected. These are the ones with safer levels, but higher ceilings. I really like Danny Hultzen and Sonny Gray, but Hultzen is the type you can find any draft and there are a number of high school LHP in this class that project to become his type of pitcher. Gray could be a starter or could be a relief pitcher. I simply do not get the feel that will be an elite arm over others in this class. Jack Armstrong could bring similar results and at a fraction of the cost. Both Jungmann and Meyer have converted me this season to think both could be quality pitchers. I do not hold Lindor or Starling in my top 12 and feel there are other players that could be just as good or better long term without the risk involved with turing raw tools into skills.

The one guy I would be shocked to see picked, but also happy is Josh Bell. I think he is raw, but I see a lot less refinements in his swing to think his learning curve is not as long as the previous mentioned two high schoolers.

I know someone who has seen him live 6 or 7 times this year alone, he said the slider and the cutter are both pronounced, with the slider sitting around 85-86 and the cutter breaking later and sitting 89-90. They have different breaks to them, but I'm not sure which one bores in and which one breaks down. He's loved both of them, said they've both flashed plus-plus, and said the change has really come around and flashed plus too, but still having a little control issue with it.

Yeah I haven't seen too many people talk about Bradley, but then again I openly question D. Tate and his drive a couple years back. I took a little beating for it, but I always felt his first love was football and he was settling for baseball. I'm real big on intangibles personally though.

I like Bundy, I think of him as Cole is what he will grow into if he hits, hence why I rate Cole above him. I like Jungmann a lot, he's been in my top 5 since last year. I'm a little more down on Barnes, Springer and Starling than most. I'm also not a Bauer fan, I think he overthinks things and the wear and tear is going to hurt him sooner than later. I like Hultzen a lot, even before his improvement this season, I look at him as what that style pitcher hopes to develop into. Wish he had a real 4th pitch, but I think he'll get better in high-A and AA, and look at him as similar to Matusz.

I'd go Cole, Rendon, --drop off--, Hultzen, Bundy, Jungmann, Gray, --drop off--, other guys...

[Don]

I have seen him live 5 times in the past two years and I know what I am talking about, plus see my write up that I complied through my first hand and well into the over 15 starts on pro scout DVD. I know fully well that he has a slider, but I think it has a fair bit of work to be considered the best in the majors and that is what plus-plus is taking into account.

http://orioles-nation.com/2011/05/04/gerrit-cole-scouting-report/

[Don]

I also have from a very reliable source that Bradley will bypass football for baseball in a heartbeat.

[Don]

Anyone that compares Hultzen to Matusz is simply stretching it to you. I mean Matusz had pin-point control for 4 pitches that made them even more effective than the stuff. I think Matusz is a step or two above Hultzen at the same stage because his command of the 4 pitches. Hultzen might have a bit more in the tank for speed, but no where near the plus-plus control and plus-plus command that made Matusz breeze through the minors.

Hultzen is good and a solid control/command combo, but at this stage the comps to Brian are excessive because those two traits are not even close to Matusz who was 65 and 70 on most reports.

[Don]

I am not saying your wrong, I am right. I just know what I have seen out of each guy I have reported. I have seen 10 out of the 12 guys live at least once. I get a bullpen and game tapes that even other services out their will not have access.

When I do my write ups, I also get feedback from a few of my friends about how I feel about each person. I have been quite harsh on a few and had to relax my thoughts because I do not want to instruct highly negative feedback.

Each have their flaws this season and why there are 5 guys slated with a chance to go 1:1. I thank you for your debating thoughts and it is nice to see when it can be healthy.

[allstar1579]

I have seen him live 5 times in the past two years and I know what I am talking about, plus see my write up that I complied through my first hand and well into the over 15 starts on pro scout DVD. I know fully well that he has a slider, but I think it has a fair bit of work to be considered the best in the majors and that is what plus-plus is taking into account.

http://orioles-nation.com/2011/05/04/gerrit-cole-scouting-report/

I've seen your report, I just don't agree. That's just the nature of how this biz goes, you know that. I've seen him on tv a couple times, and on film a hand full of others, but I've talked to quite a few people that see him live, and I'm confident in their opinions, that's mostly what I'm going by here, but you of all people know exactly how scouting goes. You have to have a network of contacts you trust sometimes, it's what Baseball America is built on. The couple times I've seen of him backed up what they said, so I'm sticking with it. It's nothing personal, you know that, it's just the nature of this stuff. If Law and Callis agreed on everyone May would be really boring.

Re: Matusz and Hultzen, it's not as far fetched as you think. Matusz's command was greatly overrated coming out of college. I saw a good 90% of his home starts in the minors, and I can tell you it was not pinpoint command getting him by, it was the fact that he had so many good pitches to fall back on when one was off. His FB command was pretty bad, and why he pitched backwards in college, Hultzen has him hands down beat on the FB. Matusz's CH is pretty special, right up there with Hamels for me, but if it's off then he has to rely on the change and the slider to get him through, and while they are both really good pitches, when you take away one of his secondaries he can get in trouble. He's gotten better at mixing in the FB, getting it up to about 60% now I think, but has cut back on the slider (his worst pitch now). Hultzen's change is probably a tick below Matusz but it's definitely a plus pitch, and the best secondary in the draft class. His slider is probably just a bit better than Matusz's so we get back to what I said originally, IF he had another good pitch (curve) he would be very similar to Matusz.

[DougDE]

Matusz's command was greatly overrated coming out of college

Since watching Matusz in the majors I've always thought that either he somehow lost some command when he got to bigs (maybe because of different ball or more pressure), or that his command was overrated in the first place. Keith Law was on Steve Melewski's show tonight and predicted Baltimore taking Bundy. Said Bundy is type of HS pitcher that can be ready to go in 2 years rather then the more usual 3 or 4

[Old Sneakers]

A few thoughts...

I think we all want the team to select a star. However if somehow the team selects Hultzen and he only becomes the team's #4 SP in the rotation with an ordinary E.R.A. but also turns out to be a guy that manages 200 IP year after year. I will be quite pleased. This team sadly still has so many needs and the emphasis is apparently always on it's top choice. The truth is the team needs to get value early and really lucky later on in subsequent rounds. Teams have managed more than one everyday player and one role player in a draft class. This team needs that if it's going to make real improvements as well.

My personal board
#1 Cole (He's still a TOR Type with lot's to love)
#2 Hultzen (Probably the safest choice int the draft and the floor is relatively high)
#3 Rendon (If his medicals check out and he can stay at 3rd he's a star)
#4 Bundy (No matter how advanced for his age he is STILL A HS KID, if the team takes him patience is a virtue)
#5 J. Bradley (Maybe he does need some work and he is too hittable at present, but he looks that part. Very high ceiling)
#6 Jungmann (Big kid in a major program looks like that part of a workhorse in a rotation, lots to like)

At this point for me, if it's anyone else, I will be saying "I sure hope they got it right." For all the great things I hear about Sunny Gray, that crash landing of his scares me to no end. With Bubba Starling I hear he has this and that and all the tools you look for, but I don't think he is in that rare class of HS talent like Machado was last year and he has a commitment to college.