Buster Olney Believe Pirates are Taking Danny Hultzen

[Jordan Tuwiner]

http://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/71276400354668540

Keith Law's mock draft latest info that has me convinced Pirates will take LHP Danny Hultzen with the No. 1 overall pick, with good reason.

Maybe Cole or Rendon will fall to the O's...

[docjj]

Hard to fathom this. I think Danny's a great pitcher and not far from the big leagues. I've seen him pitch. But #1 overall? Could be an attempt to save $ by not signing the biggest name guy, I suppose... or perhaps they want someone "safe" who they can feel very confident will succeed at the Big League level soon.

But it's puzzling... If this happens, then I think there is a chance Cole or Rendon could fall to us. Would we take them or would we want to save money too? Also, that new college bat seems to have sapped a lot of power from Rendon...any concerns there?

[Don]

I do not think it is an out of left field choice. Danny might not have the number 1 ceiling, but his margin of error is no where near as great either. He should at least be an arm to reach the majors and most likely be a back of the rotation or a long arm out of the bullpen if the wheels fell off. Honestly, if he keeps the ball down and enhances his ability to get ground outs, he should be a more than serviceable rotation arm.

I think Cole has been shaky this season as it wears on, but he should be a solid pitcher. Best is an ace of a staff, but at worst it is 3/4 starter, maybe setup/closer if the wheels fall off.

Rendon is a wildcard because the medical reports are not being release. If you have something to hide, you take this route. If you are not worried long term, you should fully disclose the shoulder and ankle. His advisor is not doing a very good job because people are now openly questioning if he can return to form. It is a lot more risk than this time last year. I do not buy it, but I am also not in control of the Pirates, Mariners, etc... front offices to make that call.

Bundy: I just think no GM in their right mind takes a chance to be the first person to select a RH high school arm 1:1. It is an unwritten rule that RHHS players grow on trees and these guys are dropped, no matter how talented the player is or can be in the future. I think there is a great deal less risk with him over other HS players because of his work ethic and passion for the game. His drive is only matched by two players in this upper portion of the draft. It is my opinion, but I see "IT" when watching him play. I have seen "IT" a lot longer than others and I am glad other scouts and personal men see some of the things I saw last year.

[Old Sneakers]

Bundy: I just think no GM in their right mind takes a chance to be the first person to select a RH high school arm 1:1. It is an unwritten rule that RHHS players grow on trees and these guys are dropped, no matter how talented the player is or can be in the future. I think there is a great deal less risk with him over other HS players because of his work ethic and passion for the game. His drive is only matched by two players in this upper portion of the draft. It is my opinion, but I see "IT" when watching him play. I have seen "IT" a lot longer than others and I am glad other scouts and personal men see some of the things I saw last year.

I have to disagree here. Last year James Taillon would have well been deserving of 1:1. If fairness though I really do not think that Dylan Bundy is nearly as talented or projectable as Taillon was. Bundy might go 3rd or 4th but I cannot see him going top 2.

[Don]

I, and a large majority of other baseball people, would tend to disagree with your assessment on Bundy. I think talent is no different and projection is just as high. Having seen both, I think the intangibles are clearly in Bundy's favor.

I think Bundy makes a great case for 1:1. I think he would have made a tough choice last season. His types simply do not grow on trees.

[Old Sneakers]

Isn't a great deal of project-ability about height and weight? With Taillon, he was a huge kid coming out of high school. The thinking is he is going to be a great deal stronger in 3 years time. Sure Dylan Bundy is an athlete as well and will get stronger. To compare the two builds J.T. had a lot more going for him.

[Don]

Projection is referring to the ability for the guy to improve upon his baseline skills. This is usually a key that the player still has room in the pants to be better than the day you draft him. In both cases, you expect each player to improve command of the whole arsenal. Improve secondary offerings, especially the change up.

College pitchers tend to has less projection because skills have been refined. They could gain some weight and a tick or two on the fastball. They could enhance some secondary, but most of these guys have enough instruction that "what you see is what you get"

I rate Bundy a tick or two higher at the same stage because . Height is not an all powering thing because Dylan is no short fry. A large majority of HOF pitchers sit between 6'0" t0 6'2". It is not out of this world that Dylan might grow another 1/2 inch to sit at 6'2". Being dominate at his size, there is less moving parts and the parts that move are shorter. It greatly increases the chance for better control and command of arsenal over the long haul. Sometimes big is not better.

Dylan has his brother as a key sign that he can still build off his current base. I rate him with two plus pitches, including a plus-plus fastball right now. I think his stuff, mental makeup, coachability, what I have seen the best out of the other pitches...Dylan has a really good shot of 4 (count 4) plus or better pitches. The last other person I thought for 4 was Mark Prior and this says a great deal of what I think of this young man.

[Shorebirdfan]

In a Q&A session yesterday, BA pointed out that even with all the strong college arms, Bundy might already be the best pitcher in this draft.

If he is one the board at 4, he is the pick.

[mcgraw238]

This time last year, everyone had the Bucs selecting Machado...we saw how that turned out.

[ofahn]

In a Q&A session yesterday, BA pointed out that even with all the strong college arms, Bundy might already be the best pitcher in this draft.

If he is one the board at 4, he is the pick.

Your logic is sound but I would choose Hultzen over Bundy if they were both available because Hultzen will probably be another Matusz in that he should be ML ready within a year.

I just question whether we have enough pitching at the AA or AAA level to be able to wait for Bundy to develop.

[Don]

I completely disagree.

While Hultzen is good, Bundy can be special. I project only Cole and Bundy with the ability to be a top of the roatation arm with Trevor Bauer on the outside chance that he can improve his control and command his pitcher more efficiently.

Hultzen is a safer option than Bundy, but not by much. I fully say that Bundy is better than every JUCO pitcher and darn passes most College arms. He would start at a High A club as soon as he signs and it would not shock me one bit to see him in AA in 2012. Hultzen is not a lock to start on the MLB level in 2012, so you are talking about a 6 month difference, while Bundy would be up by age 20-21.

Neither choice is bad, but you are selling Bundy way too short.

[ofahn]

I completely disagree.

While Hultzen is good, Bundy can be special. I project only Cole and Bundy with the ability to be a top of the roatation arm with Trevor Bauer on the outside chance that he can improve his control and command his pitcher more efficiently.

Hultzen is a safer option than Bundy, but not by much. I fully say that Bundy is better than every JUCO pitcher and darn passes most College arms. He would start at a High A club as soon as he signs and it would not shock me one bit to see him in AA in 2012. Hultzen is not a lock to start on the MLB level in 2012, so you are talking about a 6 month difference, while Bundy would be up by age 20-21.

Neither choice is bad, but you are selling Bundy way too short.

I absolutely agree that Bundy is a special talent; however, before I sign on to your prediction that he would be ML ready within two or three years I would consider these issues:

Since Bundy is looking for a HUGE signing bonus he probably won't sign until the last minute. After paying that kind of bonus to a high school kid that doesn't sign until the Aberdeen season is almost over, I can't see the team risking their investment for ten to fifteen innings this year. They're not going to invite him to Spring Training next year, and the minor league players don't report until about the middle of March. Assuming all of that to be true, please name the last HIGH SCHOOL pitcher that we started at full season A ball that didn't have at least a few innings of some minor league experience?

HS position players normally move through the system faster than pitchers. Machado is a special talent that COULD be ML ready in 2013. We were lucky that he fell to us last year because Taillon would have been hard to pass up BUT he probably won't be ML ready until 2013, at the earliest.

Most scouts have rated Bundy lower than Taillon.

In a perfect world I would love to take Bundy and wait for him to develop; however, the pitching cupboard is almost bare above A ball in our farm system and Hultzen might be an option for late 2012. Since there seems to be little difference in the up side between Bundy and Hultzen IMO Hultzen is the choice, if available.

Regardless, either player would be a good choice.

[Don]

Every scout that I know, quite a few, have Bundy higher than Taillon because Bundy has 4 pitches at least major league average or better at this stage, while Taillion does not and may not be as diverse as him.

[ofahn]

Life would be good if BOTH players were available at1:4 but I doubt that will be the case. In fact, as Cole and Rendon seem to be falling, it's possible that NEITHER will be be there for us.

I would consider either to be a good start to the draft.