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Baseball Prospectus 2014 Organizational Rankings

Baseball Prospectus 2014 Organizational Rankings

PostPost #1 by Tucker Blair » February 26th, 2014, 8:29 am

Orioles ranked 12th

It's a free article, so go read it!
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... entMessage
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 2014 Organizational Rankings

PostPost #2 by AlexConway » February 26th, 2014, 9:28 am

The most interesting part to me is that Parks/BP says that 5 of the top 6 are likely to graduate this year. That seems a little bullish to me since I would assume he is talking about Gausman, Bundy, Rodriguez, Schoop, and Wright. I am not so sure I see all of them graduating this year.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 2014 Organizational Rankings

PostPost #3 by Tucker Blair » February 26th, 2014, 10:28 am

I dunno, I think they are fairly accurate on this:

- Kevin Gausman is obvious. I bet he makes 20 starts this year, even with Yoon and Jimenez on the team now.
- Dylan Bundy is going to see time, and I will almost assure you on that. He is ahead of schedule, he is one of the hardest workers and best makeup players in baseball, and he has insane talent. It may not be until September, but I bet he will play a role. Some may not agree with it, but the Orioles are going to do whatever it takes to win, and if he can help push them to the playoffs, he will see time.
- Eduardo Rodriguez , I wrote this on twitter, and also will have some reports on him coming in the future:
"One of the most improved players in the O's system the past two years is easily Eduardo Rodriguez. Do not overlook him in 2014-2015."

- Jonathan Schoop will be up with roster expansions either way, so that counts. Might not be ready still, but a callup is a callup.

- Mike Wright is close, and he is the wild card. Depending on their need, he could see time in the bullpen. Hopefully they do not need him as a SP, because then that means something bad has happened.


I think it's always tough projecting where players go, but I don't think BP is very far off at all.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 2014 Organizational Rankings

PostPost #4 by AlexConway » February 26th, 2014, 11:09 am

Tucker Blair wrote:I dunno, I think they are fairly accurate on this:

- Kevin Gausman is obvious. I bet he makes 20 starts this year, even with Yoon and Jimenez on the team now.
- Dylan Bundy is going to see time, and I will almost assure you on that. He is ahead of schedule, he is one of the hardest workers and best makeup players in baseball, and he has insane talent. It may not be until September, but I bet he will play a role. Some may not agree with it, but the Orioles are going to do whatever it takes to win, and if he can help push them to the playoffs, he will see time.
- Eduardo Rodriguez , I wrote this on twitter, and also will have some reports on him coming in the future:
"One of the most improved players in the O's system the past two years is easily Eduardo Rodriguez. Do not overlook him in 2014-2015."

- Jonathan Schoop will be up with roster expansions either way, so that counts. Might not be ready still, but a callup is a callup.

- Mike Wright is close, and he is the wild card. Depending on their need, he could see time in the bullpen. Hopefully they do not need him as a SP, because then that means something bad has happened.


I think it's always tough projecting where players go, but I don't think BP is very far off at all.


Maybe this is just terminology confusion, but when I hear graduate I consider it to be the player losing their prospect/rookie status (i.e. pitching 50 innings in the ML or having 130PA in the ML)

I think Gausman will graduate, he needs less than 3 innings of major league time to do so.

Bundy needs around 49 innings at the major league level to lose his prospect status. I wouldn't put it above him. But time isn't exactly on his side coming off of TJ. Also, where does he slot in? Do they move him to the bullpen? Gausman would be logical to come up first to fill a need. So is Bundy only coming up because of injury? I just don't see a clear path for Bundy this season I guess is my point.

Rodriguez and Wright have the same problem Bundy has just even moreso, they are further down the depth chart. The only way the roster math makes sense for them to see 50 innings this year is if there are major injuries to the rotation or the bullpen early on.

Schoop also basically needs 110 PA to lose his prospect status, not an amount he's likely to gain in a September Callup. Maybe an injury, but I would say if Flaherty falters Jemile Weeks is probably next man up.

That's why I say it surprised me. I don't think its out of the realm of possibility for any of them to graduate, I just think it would be due to injury which is hard to predict.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 2014 Organizational Rankings

PostPost #5 by Old Sneakers » February 26th, 2014, 2:21 pm

I dunno...

15. Arizona Diamondbacks
Farm System Ranking in 2013: 17


I would have put them in the top 5 easily.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 2014 Organizational Rankings

PostPost #6 by Tucker Blair » February 26th, 2014, 7:00 pm

It is totally terminology confusion. Good Point. I was a part of this discussion and it was essentially determined that a graduation does not necessarily mean they never see the minors again, but that they will contribute this year in some manner. I think this holds true for all of those players mentioned, at least it potentially does.

I'm with you Alex, I think it is entirely possible that all of them do not see that time, but I think BP was essentially trying to illustrate that it is indeed a possibility. I hope that makes sense.

Either way, gotta be happy with 12 considering how deep the system drops off after the top guys.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 2014 Organizational Rankings

PostPost #7 by ofahn » March 4th, 2014, 11:07 am

Tucker Blair wrote:Kevin Gausman is obvious. I bet he makes 20 starts this year, even with Yoon and Jimenez on the team now.

I agree with you, but I'm curious as to your opinion of which SP he would replace assuming injuries or a meltdown isn't the reason. I would see Norris as the obvious choice; but do you see him going to the BP or a trade candidate?

Tucker Blair wrote:Dylan Bundy is going to see time, and I will almost assure you on that. He is ahead of schedule, he is one of the hardest workers and best makeup players in baseball, and he has insane talent. It may not be until September, but I bet he will play a role. Some may not agree with it, but the Orioles are going to do whatever it takes to win, and if he can help push them to the playoffs, he will see time.

I'm not as confident as to the contribution he's going to make. It's NOT because I question his talent or work ethic, I just don't think he's ML ready yet. IMO he still needs to establish better command of all of his pitches to be a successful ML SP, and at least his FB and change up to be a successful ML RP. I also don't think the team is going to allow him to throw more than about 75 innings this year assuming he's ready by June 1st and at least 60 of those will be in the minors. That would leave about 15 innings for a September call up IF he's truly ready to get ML hitters out.

Tucker Blair wrote:Eduardo Rodriguez , I wrote this on twitter, and also will have some reports on him coming in the future:
"One of the most improved players in the O's system the past two years is easily Eduardo Rodriguez. Do not overlook him in 2014-2015."

He's a comer and he impressed me with his outing on Sunday. Numbers wise it was unimpressive; however, Buck allowed him to stay in the game and face some pretty tough Red Sox hitters when he was in trouble. He showed he needs to learn how to use his stuff to get that level of hitter out, BUT he also showed me that he's NOT intimidated. You can teach the former, but not the latter.

Unless it's a call up in September as an extra arm in the BP to get LHers out I think it would be a mistake to have him in Baltimore this year. Let him build his innings and focus on 2016.

Tucker Blair wrote:Jonathan Schoop will be up with roster expansions either way, so that counts. Might not be ready still, but a callup is a callup.

It's WAY too early to give him a spot on the 25 Man Roster, but so far he's making a statement that he WILL be considered for one. I have this fantasy (before anyone's head explodes PLEASE focus on the word FANTASY) that he forces the team to start him at 3B on March 31st because Weeks earns the 2B job and Machado isn't ready yet OR that he earns that 2B job because Machado IS ready and Schoop is better than Weeks and Flaherty.

Tucker Blair wrote:Mike Wright is close, and he is the wild card. Depending on their need, he could see time in the bullpen. Hopefully they do not need him as a SP, because then that means something bad has happened.

I would prefer that he spends the year at AAA and becomes properly prepared to earn a spot in next season's rotation. IMO we have enough SP that we don't need to rush players any more.

I could see him as a September call up in the BP.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus 2014 Organizational Rankings

PostPost #8 by ofahn » March 4th, 2014, 11:36 am

I don't value farm systems like some others. IMO the real value of a system is whether it can provide quality players to support the ML team right now OR whether it has a surplus of quality prospects that would be attractive to another team in order to trade for players the ML team needs immediately.

Our farm system has one SP that we should be able to count on this year - Gausman - and one we might be able to count on - Wright. It also has two position players - Schoop and Urrutia.

For 2015 we have one SP we should be able to count on - Wright- and two that we might be able to count on - Dylan Bundy and Eduardo Rodriguez. At this point I don't see any position players we should be able to count on and one - Christian Walker - that is a long shot.

After that we're looking at a couple of lean years unless we strike gold in the International market or trade some veterans.

Using my ranking system I see the Red Sox as having the best farm system and ours in the top five, BUT in a couple of years we may be in the bottom ten.
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