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Fangraphs Orioles Top 10 Prospects

Fangraphs Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #1 by AlexConway » January 8th, 2014, 8:45 am

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-top-10-prospects-baltimore-orioles/

Fangraphs released their list today for the Orioles Top 10 Prospects. Some very good write-ups in there and I recommend everyone to take some time to read it.

Here is the list

1. Dylan Bundy
2. Kevin Gausman
3. Eduardo Rodriguez
4. Jonathan Schoop
5. Hunter Harvey
6. Mike Wright
7. Tim Berry
8. Michael Ohlman
9. Chance Sisco
10. Henry Urrutia

Next Five

11. Zach Davies
12. Josh Hart
13. Branden Kline
14. Dariel Alvarez
15. Francisco Peguero
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Re: Fangraphs Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #2 by j.q. higgins » January 8th, 2014, 10:12 am

any thoughts as to where some of our dearly departed (hader, avery) former prospects would slot in? it's interesting to me how pitcher heavy it is and as a corollary how older guys like urrutia and alvarez make it on the full list as well as waiver wire superhero peguero.
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Re: Fangraphs Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #3 by Tucker Blair » January 8th, 2014, 11:05 am

j.q. higgins wrote:any thoughts as to where some of our dearly departed (hader, avery) former prospects would slot in? it's interesting to me how pitcher heavy it is and as a corollary how older guys like urrutia and alvarez make it on the full list as well as waiver wire superhero peguero.


Hader would have been top 10 for me.
I think he would have slotted right after Wright and maybe before Berry and Davies. He has a much higher ceiling than Davies or Berry IMO, but the risk is also higher. A lot of volatility and unknown still left with him.
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Re: Fangraphs Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #4 by j.q. higgins » January 8th, 2014, 11:57 am

i never got a chance to see hader. do you have a good sense of what kind of issues were behind the high walk rates? seems like a pretty significant spike from aberdeen to delmarva or do you write off 2012 and look at 2013 as, "he was a 19 year old finding his footing in pro ball"?
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Re: Fangraphs Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #5 by Tucker Blair » January 8th, 2014, 1:10 pm

j.q. higgins wrote:i never got a chance to see hader. do you have a good sense of what kind of issues were behind the high walk rates? seems like a pretty significant spike from aberdeen to delmarva or do you write off 2012 and look at 2013 as, "he was a 19 year old finding his footing in pro ball"?


I wrote about Hader here last season. http://baltimoresportsandlife.com/balti ... ng-report/
Yea, he has a lot of quirks to work with and the control/command is a work-in-progress. I did not receive any reports on him after the trade though. Hopefully he continued to improve. Talked to him a few times last year and he is a good dude.
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Re: Fangraphs Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #6 by Old Sneakers » January 8th, 2014, 1:25 pm

I like fangraphs, I am not putting them down. I'm not being critical of Alex for posting it. But there are holes in how they wrote up this article. Either your stacking talent and putting forth the positive and negative traits or you are doing what we do here: Pretending to be a general manager. Most of us know the team has serious holes in the minor leagues. Doing both is problematic.

Bundy: Shouldn't even be ranked. We do not know what he is at all. Let alone guess that he has the potential to be a #1 or #2 SP. We won't have any real clue what that might be until he's had a few starts in. Perhaps that is at the end of August.

Gauseman: He was over his head in 2013. The talent might be there but he's not ready to be a SP. Like so many others he's close but not there. He's got things to work on and should not be a serious consideration for the rotation to start 2014. I don't see him as the favorite to break spring training with the team. He's the fallback option.

Rodriguez: He's still got things to work on at AA before talking about pushing him to AAA. He's still only 20 years old. He's been hurried through the system as is. The article is already talking about major leagues in 2014. That is nuts! Do the Orioles base their decisions on articles like this? If not are we sure?

Schoop: I pretty much agree with what was said. The key being above average contributor, not all-star. The unrealistic hype Schoop received the past year or two is outrageous.

Harvey: He's eighteen years old. He's not made an appearance at low-A yet. How can you say he's got the potential to be a #2 or #3 starter? Talent and potential got him drafted. He made a handful of appearances in short season clubs. Let's wait and see what we have. For all we know he may need two seasons at Delmarva to build up stamina. It happens. Also I didn't see Stephen Tarpley in the top 15. I just think it odd that too much emphasis is based upon draft position or raw potential.

Wright: I basically agree with the article. With the exception that it suggests he could be trade bait. Trade bait for what? Improved concession stands? The team has it's own need for young, inexpensive controllable pitching. Likely Wright is either a starter or closer. Why is trading him even a thought when ranking prospects? Readers see this will need to forgive me. I just consider mention of trading young pitching prospect away for minimum returns counter to what I thought the team was trying to do.

Berry: Essentially I agree. He's going to get his first taste of AA. This should ultimately decide if he's a starter or reliever down the road. Not how good he will be in his eventual role.

Ohlman: Agree with article. However, Ohlman's development and eventual role/ceiling shouldn't have much to do with how long Matt Weiters is under team control. If Weiters is traded or leaves via free agency. The team will have to have a Catcher that is major league ready on the team. Last I looked prospects aren't ready based on team need. Think Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman, Hernandez, Berken, Olsen etc... It literally never ends. Players are ready when they are ready.

Beyond this I think the rankings were based mainly off of other lists. Bobby Bundy should be healthy this year and back in AA. Tyler Wilson may not have wow stuff, but he can actually pitch. He as been disregarded too easily. Christian Walker can hit and get on base. Plays a position that has a cloudy future (Thank you Chris Davis/Scott Boras) and could figure into the team's plans but gets no mention. Brandon Kline makes all the lists but has yet to do anything meaningful since he got drafted.

Zachary Davies has earned some mention for quietly working his way up. I support him. I just think he's getting the nod because he's survived a season at Frederick. If he's actually ready for AA, then promote him. I just worry that the promotion scale is still the same when Brandon Erbe made it to AA. Move him up when he's ready please, elbows and shoulders are not options on new cars. I favor caution promoting pitching prospects at each level. Much the same when stacking and evaluating them.
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Re: Fangraphs Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #7 by j.q. higgins » January 13th, 2014, 12:12 pm

do you think this approach is different than from how other generally accepted industry expert pubs come up w/ their lists? not saying as i have inside info, genuinely curious.
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Re: Fangraphs Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #8 by Old Sneakers » January 15th, 2014, 11:23 pm

j.q. higgins wrote:do you think this approach is different than from how other generally accepted industry expert pubs come up w/ their lists? not saying as i have inside info, genuinely curious.


I'm no insider either. However, Gausman is no longer a prospect. Bundy is a complete unknown. Harvey's only appeared in a few short season games as have Cisco and Hart. No one knows what the real floor/ceiling is for any of these guys. However, none of them has done what Mike Wright has already done, make it through a full season at AA.

I think Tucker messaged me that these lists are always subjective. I agree with that, but they are also motivated in an almost political way. If Baseball America released it's list first and MLB released it's list two days later. I can imagine the staff at MLB going crazy trying to more closely resemble what BA had just put out. Why? If Baseball America is right on the money and MLB looks foolish. Clearly no one would respect MLB.

If your in Maryland. Watch all the different weather forecasts from all the different stations the next time a storm is coming through this winter. Please take note that they aren't giving one forecast. They are giving you fifteen so they are always right. I think these lists are put together the same way.

I will start a new thread in the next couple days stacking prospects from different perspectives and values and rank players accordingly. At the end I'll do my own top 10 and we can compare what that is versus any publication's list.
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Re: Fangraphs Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #9 by ofahn » January 21st, 2014, 11:41 am

AlexConway wrote:1. Dylan Bundy
2. Kevin Gausman
3. Eduardo Rodriguez
4. Jonathan Schoop
5. Hunter Harvey
6. Mike Wright
7. Tim Berry
8. Michael Ohlman
9. Chance Sisco
10. Henry Urrutia

Next Five

11. Zach Davies
12. Josh Hart
13. Branden Kline
14. Dariel Alvarez
15. Francisco Peguero

Frankly, this list breaks my heart. Our best prospect is coming off of TJ surgery and will be a huge question mark until he can pitch in games again. His ill advised ML contract and running option clock MAY require the team to consider his future to be as a closer. Regardless, he won't really be able to pitch as starter for a full ML season until 2016.

Our #2 prospect is an A- prospect that has been rushed to the point that he hasn't learned how to maximize his skill set and/or get out ML hitters.

Our #3 prospect has the upside of a #3 SP and our #4 prospect is a B- level player which means he has about a 15% chance of becoming an impact player and a 25 to 30% chance of becoming a ML regular.

#5, #9, and #12 prospects were drafted last year and are being ranked on potential alone. #13 is a second round draft pick that has shown almost nothing since he was drafted in 2012.

#6 (C+) has the upside of a #3 SP and #7 (C) the upside of a #4 SP. Very few C class prospects become ML regulars; however, at least SPs can become impact players as relievers. Jim Johnson was a C prospect and he turned into a pretty good reliever. So did David Hernandez.

#8 is a C+ prospect that could become an A- if he has the same kind of year at AA as he had at A+ last year.

#10 is developing quickly, but he HAS to as he will be 27 YO when he reports to ST.

We have FOUR A and B level prospects on our list. Boston and St. Louis arguably have A and B prospects in EVERY spot in their top 10 lists. It's no coincidence that they were the two teams that played in the WS last year.
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