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Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #16 by Seafordeagles » January 3rd, 2014, 1:45 pm

I mentioned Garza here a couple of months ago here and our resident expert came up with 3 points for not signing Garza. Thank you for mentioning him as well.
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Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #17 by ofahn » January 4th, 2014, 8:40 am

Seafordeagles wrote:I mentioned Garza here a couple of months ago here and our resident expert came up with 3 points for not signing Garza. Thank you for mentioning him as well.

I posted this on December 23rd:

I would disagree with ANYONE that suggested we sign Garza to a FOUR year deal at market rate, but I would be very happy to have him on a ONE year deal at 15M. For me, it's not the player; it's the commitment.

and this:

I wouldn't be willing to give Garza more than two years guaranteed. Someone will be dumb enough to give him at least four.

Clearly, I'M not opposed to signing Garza; I'm opposed to signing Garza to a STUPID contract. Which "resident expert" were you referring to?

Garza is probably the most talented SP besides Tanaka that won't require draft pick compensation yet he hasn't been signed yet. IMO that's because he's a #3 SP with injury issues that has been looking for the upper end of #2 SP money for someone that has been a work horse. Once he gets real about his contract demands he'll have at least three or four teams to choose from and the Orioles should be one of them as long as the number of years is reasonable.
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Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #18 by ofahn » January 4th, 2014, 8:44 am

osforlife wrote:Matt Garza/Bronson Arroyo/AJ Burnett ... Chris Capuano

What would you see as a FAIR contract for each of these guys?
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Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #19 by Old Sneakers » January 4th, 2014, 9:08 am

A 1 year deal will cost a ton. Personally I sort of favor that. Meaning I don't like it, but it would allow unfinished products meaningful time in the minors.

Here we are again, it's January and spring training is approaching. The team hasn't done what it really needed to do and acquire a real starting pitcher. I gave up on asking the team to get a true lead-off hitter knowing there wasn't too much available. Unless a move gets made soon this is going to be a team like the 2010 Orioles. A losing season and prospects having options wasted, service clocks ticking.
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Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #20 by ofahn » January 4th, 2014, 9:50 am

Old Sneakers wrote:I gave up on asking the team to get a true lead-off hitter knowing there wasn't too much available.

I may be kidding myself, but I am really expecting Markakis to have a solid season in the lead off spot. I believe that the veterans know their window is closing and they need to really step it up. They also have to know that ownership isn't going to open its wallet so they'll have to do it themselves.

David Lough should recognize that he has the chance to be the the Orioles' LF and lead off guy for a long time IF he can play plus defense and maintain an OBA of at least .380. That's about .030 points more than his minor league career, but it's an attainable goal IF he improves his plate discipline and becomes a plus bunter. If I were him I would arrive at ST as soon as Jim Presley gets there and work with him EVERY day until my head hurt and I got blisters.
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Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #21 by Seafordeagles » January 4th, 2014, 11:23 am

ofahn wrote:I posted this on December 23rd:


and this:


Clearly, I'M not opposed to signing Garza; I'm opposed to signing Garza to a STUPID contract. Which "resident expert" were you referring to?

Garza is probably the most talented SP besides Tanaka that won't require draft pick compensation yet he hasn't been signed yet. IMO that's because he's a #3 SP with injury issues that has been looking for the upper end of #2 SP money for someone that has been a work horse. Once he gets real about his contract demands he'll have at least three or four teams to choose from and the Orioles should be one of them as long as the number of years is reasonable.


You post this on October 31st about Garza in response to my post:

"1) His injury history makes him anything but reliable.
2) He's going to want more than Edwin Jackson and look how well THAT contract turned out.
3) With ownership imposing a tight budget which player do you want to get rid of to pay for Garza? Wieters? Davis? Hardy? Jim Johnson?"

I never said how long to sign Garza in my post. This was my post:

"My opinion is the Orioles need a "innings eater" instead of the 5 1/3 innings type. Matt Garza fills that bill. He gobbles up innings."

Funny when I bring up about signing Garza you WERE opposed to signing him, and I never mentioned money or longevity of contract.
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Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #22 by ofahn » January 4th, 2014, 1:12 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:Funny when I bring up about signing Garza you WERE opposed to signing him, and I never mentioned money or longevity of contract.

I suppose people take away different things from what they read; although I'm curious as to how you believe a team can sign a player without the parties being in agreement as to the terms of the contract.

I'm also curious as to why you feel Garza is an innings eater. The last time he started more than thirty games or pitched ALMOST 200 innings was in 2011. Bronson Arroyo, on the other hand, has pitched AT LEAST 200 innings in every season since 2005 except 2011; when he pitched 199.

I agree that we need an innings eater. We just seem to disagree on which one would be the better signing.
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Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #23 by Seafordeagles » January 4th, 2014, 3:28 pm

ofahn wrote:I suppose people take away different things from what they read; although I'm curious as to how you believe a team can sign a player without the parties being in agreement as to the terms of the contract.

I'm also curious as to why you feel Garza is an innings eater. The last time he started more than thirty games or pitched ALMOST 200 innings was in 2011. Bronson Arroyo, on the other hand, has pitched AT LEAST 200 innings in every season since 2005 except 2011; when he pitched 199.

I agree that we need an innings eater. We just seem to disagree on which one would be the better signing.


I have no problem with Arroyo, Burnett or Garza. I mentioned Garza on October 31st. You also mentioned wanting him for the right deal. Please stop trying to find flaws in my posts. It's obvious you are trying to coerce me into a war of wars. Like I said in another post, "happy new year to you too".
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Re: Orioles Free Agent Starting Pitching Targets

PostPost #24 by osforlife » January 4th, 2014, 5:21 pm

Contract evaluations are definitely something I need to work on, but I'll give it my best shot.

AJ Burnett; One year, $12MM. I'd give him two, but if he's unsure if he'll play one more year, why pay him to play two? The Pirates declined to pay him $14MM, but he should be somewhere near that. He'd be the Orioles best pitcher. His LOB% and BABIP weren't abnormal, although he did have a career year in terms of HR/9 and K/9, which he is unlikely to repeat. Coming back to the American League and into a hitter's park, I think he'll have an ERA in the high 3.00's, possibly mid/high, if he were to sign with Baltimore.

Chris Capuano; One year, $6MM. I'd be willing to sign him to two years, but he probably wants one year to regain his value before one last decent free agency for him. If somehow Edison Volquez can get $5MM, Capuano should get more. I think he's slightly better than Bud Norris. Production wise, he'd throw 180 innings at a low-to-mid 4.00's ERA.

Bronson Arroyo; Two years, $18MM. Arroyo scares me, and I'd rather Burnett, Capuano, Garza, or Scott Baker fill the 5th spot. He'll get a multi-year deal thanks to his durability and control. But, the guy gives up a ton of home-runs and doesn't strike anybody out. His ERA constantly outperforms his FIP, but the peripherals suggest he's an average-to-below average pitcher in the national league.

Matt Garza; Three years, $39MM. Garza doesn't do anything spectacular, but has no weaknesses either. I wouldn't say he's injury prone, because the only injury I recall is the back injury he suffered in the second half of 2012. Scott Feldman got 3 years/$30MM. I'd say Garza's a good bet for 190 innings, 3.90 ERA ball.

Scott Baker; One year, $4MM. He signed a $5.5MM deal for 2012, but he only made three starts. He's healthy now, and he was always a decent pitcher when healthy.
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