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extensions for Wieters and Davis

extensions for Wieters and Davis

PostPost #1 by dan72 » December 30th, 2013, 12:51 pm

So who here thinks that the Orioles are negotiating extensions with Boras on either Wieters or Davis? Reason I bring this up now is because of the Boras interview during the winter meetings regarding extension talks.
I have to wonder if the team is even going to try and ink anything this off season or wait till next off season?
What kind of money and length will we be looking at with these two players? I'm thinking Wieters on the open market would get 5/$50. Davis provided he puts up numbers somewhere in between his '12 & '13 seasons would get 6/ $110.......
Let me know if I'm far off on the projected salaries.
Do the Orioles value one over the other? Sign both, trade one....? Keep in mind there are no real 1b prospects in our system. Chance sisco is still in the lower levels....
Thoughts
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Re: extensions for Wieters and Davis

PostPost #2 by Seafordeagles » December 30th, 2013, 6:18 pm

dan72 wrote:So who here thinks that the Orioles are negotiating extensions with Boras on either Wieters or Davis? Reason I bring this up now is because of the Boras interview during the winter meetings regarding extension talks.
I have to wonder if the team is even going to try and ink anything this off season or wait till next off season?
What kind of money and length will we be looking at with these two players? I'm thinking Wieters on the open market would get 5/$50. Davis provided he puts up numbers somewhere in between his '12 & '13 seasons would get 6/ $110.......
Let me know if I'm far off on the projected salaries.
Do the Orioles value one over the other? Sign both, trade one....? Keep in mind there are no real 1b prospects in our system. Chance sisco is still in the lower levels....
Thoughts


Boras will not allow extensions when those guys are so close to free agency.
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Re: extensions for Wieters and Davis

PostPost #3 by dan72 » December 30th, 2013, 6:49 pm

That's not what Boras said while at the winter meetings. There are numerous reports that support this.
See the link below:
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orio ... 8449.story

I think Boras would be open to any negotiations so long as what we are offering is in line with fair market value. There will be no home town discounts. The other factor in all of this is weather or not the player wants to stay here. I'm sure that Wieters is probably not real happy with the way things went down with Jim Johnson. For those who don't know the two of them are very close friends. Having said that, I'm sure they are both aware that baseball is a business and players are going to get moved.....If I were ownership or GM I would trade or extend them now rather than later.
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Re: extensions for Wieters and Davis

PostPost #4 by Seafordeagles » December 30th, 2013, 7:26 pm

Maybe you can help me. Has a Boras client signed an extension this close to free agency?

As for what Boras said while at the winter meetings, he's certainly not going to say anything differently. He's going to say all the right things. The man is not stupid and he plays one team against the other, he uses teams to benefit himself and his clients.

Personally players that are SUCCESSFUL would be downright stupid signing an extension within 2 years of free agency. The arbitration process will more than compensate them. signing an extension does nothing to benefit them unless they tank the next 2 years. All Davis has to do is average 30 home runs and then you will see a mega contract coming his way once he enters free agency.
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Re: extensions for Wieters and Davis

PostPost #5 by Old Sneakers » December 30th, 2013, 10:45 pm

I've spoken my peace on this issue. Weiters will command too much money too keep. If his offensive skills were the equal of his defense then he would warrant a monster contract. That said, he's not getting a long term extension and leaving after 2015. DD even said last year "We will enjoy him while he's here".

Davis on the other hand might be worth keeping. He would be hard pressed to duplicate his 2013 numbers ever again, but he isn't at nearly so combustible a position as Weiters is. If Davis is willing to sign a long term deal for a number the team can handle then lock him up! But, before all the whiners start crying when it doesn't happen. Try remembering that Davis plays 1B not SS. If the team gets a generational talent like Derek Jeter then you open up the bank vault.

I look at both players the same way: 2014 is unlikely to be a winning season for the Orioles as is. Why not try moving one or both of these guys and have a team that could compete in baseball's toughest division for 5 years with a payroll the team can actually handle? Our current team isn't brimming with talent with either player. One or the other could fetch a return in talent that would put them over the top.
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Re: extensions for Wieters and Davis

PostPost #6 by ofahn » December 31st, 2013, 11:37 am

Seafordeagles wrote:Boras will not allow extensions when those guys are so close to free agency.

BORAS doesn't make those decisions, the PLAYERS do.

Retaining Boras is a clear sign by the player that they are more concerned about getting every last dollar than where they play. Some players have used Boras as their agent when they signed extensions, but it's rare. Boras was probably being used to get the current team to pay more because of the implied threat that he would take his player to the market.

If Davis and/or Wieters REALLY wanted to stay in Baltimore and the team refused to offer a contract you can almost bet that Boras would have leaked that to the media in an effort to pressure Angelos into coming to the table.

The REAL problem with determining fair value for these two players is that Wieters has regressed at the plate over the last two years and Davis is just starting to produce at an impact level. Boras will argue that they're Mickey Cochrane and Mickey Mantle, but the truth is that the real value of each player is yet to be determined.
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Re: extensions for Wieters and Davis

PostPost #7 by ofahn » December 31st, 2013, 11:46 am

dan72 wrote:If I were ownership or GM I would trade ... them now rather than later.

IF ownership is not willing to increase the budget to about 110M then this team is a questionable playoff contender, much less a championship team. We would be better off trading Davis and Wieters (and Hardy and Jones) NOW to get maximum value and start building again.

What concerns me is that Angelos will insist that we keep them so that he can sell as many tickets as possible the next two seasons. If that happens this franchise will be cellar dwellers for years because our farm system can't replace them.
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Re: extensions for Wieters and Davis

PostPost #8 by ofahn » December 31st, 2013, 11:54 am

Old Sneakers wrote:I look at both players the same way: 2014 is unlikely to be a winning season for the Orioles as is. Why not try moving one or both of these guys and have a team that could compete in baseball's toughest division for 5 years with a payroll the team can actually handle? Our current team isn't brimming with talent with either player. One or the other could fetch a return in talent that would put them over the top.

My Christmas wish was to have Santa tattoo that on Angelos's forehead and leave a large mirror under his tree.

POINTS!
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Re: extensions for Wieters and Davis

PostPost #9 by osforlife » January 1st, 2014, 2:39 pm

The first step in deciding whether to extend a certain player is whether or not the team truly needs them beyond their controllable years. In other words, can they be replaced internally in the future? Wieters and Davis are each two years away from reaching free agency.

With Wieters, the Orioles' catching depth is actually quite impressive. Steve Clevenger has hit the ball effectively everywhere he's been. Currently at Norfolk, Johnny Monell, Caleb Joseph, and Brian Ward project to be complementary catchers. Michael Ohlman is slated to start for the Baysox, and he could be a real solution to Wieters' future absence. Let's not forget the four catchers drafted within the first ten rounds.

As for Davis, there is only one legitimate first base prospect in the minors, and that is Christian Walker. He quietly had a very impressive year at three different levels, and is ranked as the seventh best first base prospect in baseball. Positives aside, it wouldn't be wise to count on Walker as Davis' predecessor. At this point, it sure seems like Baltimore will defintely need Davis more than they will need Wieters after the 2015 season. Therefore, if I were DD, I would focus on extending Davis, and ignore Wieters for now.

The second step would be to determine when to sign the extension. Teams would want to do this when the player's "value" is low. Now, I don't think Chris Davis' value will ever be that low, but at least know that his value will never reach the point that it is at now. Therefore, signing Davis to an extension now, would be paying for the 2013 Chris Davis. We all know Davis won't repeat what he did in 2013. So, let's wait a year for his value to diminish. Steamer and Oliver both predict Davis to be somewhere in between his 2012 and 2013 seasons. That's a reasonable expectation. I would gladly sign Chris Davis to an extension, if the Orioles are paying him like a .900 OPS player.

The third step would be to negotiate the deal. Joey Votto signed a ten year/$225MM extension at the age of 28 before the 2012 season. Going off of that, I would sign Davis to a seven year(plus the one year of arbitration left, because in this scenario, the Orioles are signing him to an extension after the 2014 season), $152MM. If Davis is unwilling to meet that standard, someone will gladly take one of the best first basemen in the game for the next year.
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Re: extensions for Wieters and Davis

PostPost #10 by Seafordeagles » January 1st, 2014, 3:22 pm

osforlife, those are words of wisdom and I agree.
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Re: extensions for Wieters and Davis

PostPost #11 by mikezpen » January 5th, 2014, 11:27 am

Osforlife makes a lot of sense. But I'm afraid Angelos w/make the FO hang on to both of them so we have a couple of respectable seasons.However the owner won't pay to extend them. So,they'll wind up giving them both away at the last minute in the same manner as JJohnson.
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