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Baseball Prospectus Orioles Top 10 Prospects

Baseball Prospectus Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #1 by AlexConway » December 11th, 2013, 10:52 am

This is the list put together by Jason Parks over at Baseball Prospectus.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22395

1. RHP Kevin Gausman
2. RHP Dylan Bundy
3. RHP Hunter Harvey
4. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
5. 2B Jonathan Schoop
6. RHP Mike Wright
7. LHP Tim Berry
8. RHP Zach Davies
9. C Chance Sisco
10. OF Josh Hart

Parks also noted on Twitter that the Orioles could have 3 pitchers in the top 30 prospects and 4 solidly in the top 101 that Prospectus puts out each year.

Of particular note to me, through following Parks and others over at BP, is the infatuation with Hunter Harvey. It's great to see the love over him and it surprised me that he was listed above Rodriguez, if the Orioles can hit high on a mid-first round pick like Harvey, that's great news for the system. The lack of positional prospects is concerning, but having the top four in your system be all legitimate rotation prospects is pretty good.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #2 by osforlife » December 11th, 2013, 5:14 pm

Thanks for posting! Bowie's rotation should be pretty fun to watch next year, with Davies, Berry, and Rodriguez all starting there. There's no need for Baltimore to rush Bundy. Let him rehab slowly and he'll pitch at various affiliates towards the end of the season. He might have to be on the 2015 Opening Day Roster though. I really hope they let Gausman stay in Norfolk for a long time. I know it won't happen, because with Baltimore, a 4.50 ERA pitcher who had two good starts in a row gets called up. For future reasons, I hope Gausman and Bundy don't really pitch for the Orioles in 2014 much. With the exception of Harvey, all pitchers in Baltimore's top ten list will be in the upper minors.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #3 by Tucker Blair » December 11th, 2013, 9:48 pm

Overall, the BP guys always have a great list.
I don't want to steal their thunder, so I will let the list speak for itself.

Only discrepancy I have is Michael Ohlman being left off (I believe in the overall game and think he can still be an average catcher defensively). I am ok with mostly everything else. I have known that the BP guys are very high on Harvey and Gausman, and it definitely shows.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #4 by Old Sneakers » December 12th, 2013, 5:49 pm

I hope this doesn't come across as negative. It's not my intent. But Bundy is injured. We don't know what we will get out of him when he is recovered (his service clock is already ticking) or what role. Originally of course he was going to be a starter. I keep wondering if that is still possible.

Havery, Hart and Cisco just being drafted are still very much unknowns. Let's give them a year (at least) in Delmarva before we give them a thumbs up or down.

On the flip side I think Wright and Rodriguez are both under-valued by just about everyone.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #5 by AlexConway » December 13th, 2013, 9:41 am

Old Sneakers wrote:I hope this doesn't come across as negative. It's not my intent. But Bundy is injured. We don't know what we will get out of him when he is recovered (his service clock is already ticking) or what role. Originally of course he was going to be a starter. I keep wondering if that is still possible.

Havery, Hart and Cisco just being drafted are still very much unknowns. Let's give them a year (at least) in Delmarva before we give them a thumbs up or down.

On the flip side I think Wright and Rodriguez are both under-valued by just about everyone.


I don't think it's negative to wonder what a guy will be when he comes back from injury. However, since it's Tommy John Surgery, and the success rate is pretty high coming back from that, it doesn't worry me as much.

Everything I have read about Harvey makes me excited about him, however I have never seen him and its still really early in his young career.

The value on Wright is one that puzzles me. He has started his entire career and put up fantastic results, in particular last season, yet scouts view him as a reliever. That is where I defer to the scouts, because having never seen him, I have no idea how his pitch mix would play in an MLB rotation. However, if the Orioles want to keep him as a starter to see if he can figure it out, I'm all for it.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #6 by AlexConway » December 13th, 2013, 9:43 am

TuckerBlair89 wrote:Overall, the BP guys always have a great list.
I don't want to steal their thunder, so I will let the list speak for itself.

Only discrepancy I have is Michael Ohlman being left off (I believe in the overall game and think he can still be an average catcher defensively). I am ok with mostly everything else. I have known that the BP guys are very high on Harvey and Gausman, and it definitely shows.


Parks was asked on Twitter about Ohlman. He said Ohlman was very close to being on the Top 10 list, but didn't make their cut.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #7 by Tucker Blair » December 13th, 2013, 1:25 pm

AlexConway wrote:
I don't think it's negative to wonder what a guy will be when he comes back from injury. However, since it's Tommy John Surgery, and the success rate is pretty high coming back from that, it doesn't worry me as much.

Everything I have read about Harvey makes me excited about him, however I have never seen him and its still really early in his young career.

The value on Wright is one that puzzles me. He has started his entire career and put up fantastic results, in particular last season, yet scouts view him as a reliever. That is where I defer to the scouts, because having never seen him, I have no idea how his pitch mix would play in an MLB rotation. However, if the Orioles want to keep him as a starter to see if he can figure it out, I'm all for it.


I went to over 50 minor league games this season, and Harvey was easily the best pitcher I saw in the lower minors. Bias aside, I truly mean that. Although, it is probably important to note that he has no right going up against short-season talent.

Wright is not viewed as a reliever by all scouts. I think that has been largely overblown. Most scouts believe his delivery is not ideal, but he has proven that it works for him and that he has made it more fluid. He has a tremendous pitching frame and I think he can potentially be a solid mid-to-backend starter in the majors. I think it would be smart to give him a shot as a reliever first though, and then slowly work him into a starter at the MLB level.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #8 by ofahn » December 16th, 2013, 5:52 pm

Old Sneakers wrote:I hope this doesn't come across as negative. It's not my intent. But Bundy is injured. We don't know what we will get out of him when he is recovered

I feel the same way.

First of all, he wasn't a legit ML SP this spring. He hasn't developed a ML third pitch yet and still has some control issues that will affect (limit) the number of outs he'll get per start. He also hasn't built his innings yet and he'll have to start all over again with those.

At this point I would make him #4 on that list a a closer in waiting or about six or seven as a SP. If he fixes his mechanics on a third pitch during rehab then I would move him back to #4 as a SP.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #9 by Tucker Blair » December 16th, 2013, 6:00 pm

ofahn wrote:I feel the same way.

First of all, he wasn't a legit ML SP this spring. He hasn't developed a ML third pitch yet and still has some control issues that will affect (limit) the number of outs he'll get per start. He also hasn't built his innings yet and he'll have to start all over again with those.

At this point I would make him #4 on that list a a closer in waiting or about six or seven as a SP. If he fixes his mechanics on a third pitch during rehab then I would move him back to #4 as a SP.


Have you seen him pitch before? I do not agree with anything you said. He has fine mechanics, a terrific arm action and a smooth delivery. The injury happened, and happens to plenty of pitchers. Also, he did not have control issues by any means. For his age, caliber and playing field - he was above average.

There is a difference between needing refinement and not having a third pitch. This is not Kevin Gausman where the Slider is clearly lagging behind. Bundy has a solid Curve and Change and just needs to work on tightening up the command of both.

He is clearly he most talented player in this organization to me, with Gausman getting the #1 slot due to being healthy and already in the bigs. I just don't get the Bundy knocking anymore. What did he do wrong besides get hurt?
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Re: Baseball Prospectus Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #10 by osforlife » December 16th, 2013, 6:16 pm

TuckerBlair89 wrote:
Have you seen him pitch before? I do not agree with anything you said. He has fine mechanics, a terrific arm action and a smooth delivery. The injury happened, and happens to plenty of pitchers. Also, he did not have control issues by any means. For his age, caliber and playing field - he was above average.

There is a difference between needing refinement and not having a third pitch. This is not Kevin Gausman where the Slider is clearly lagging behind. Bundy has a solid Curve and Change and just needs to work on tightening up the command of both.

He is clearly he most talented player in this organization to me, with Gausman getting the #1 slot due to being healthy and already in the bigs. I just don't get the Bundy knocking anymore. What did he do wrong besides get hurt?

I can't WAIT until he's healthy and in the big leagues. Yeah, his contract isn't a positive, but it can be worked around. I'm guessing he'll be ready to rehab at around mid-season, maybe a little later.? At that point, I'd like to see him spend the rest of the year in the minors, working off the injury rust and any pre-injury kinks he had. But, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's Baltimore's 2015 Opening Day Starter. The Orioles may have to deal with a 2012 Stephen Strasburg situation, but that course of action will most likely be situated before the season starts.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #11 by ofahn » December 16th, 2013, 7:56 pm

TuckerBlair89 wrote:Have you seen him pitch before?

Yes, in ST this year. In fact, I wrote a glowing report on him. I have also posted on how much I admire his exemplary work ethic; however, none of that changes the fact that there are still big red flags with him.[/quote]

TuckerBlair89 wrote:He has fine mechanics, a terrific arm action and a smooth delivery.

Yes, on TWO pitches. IMO he's a legit late inning ML RP RIGHT NOW, but he's NOT a ML SP yet. Not until he refines that third pitch.

TuckerBlair89 wrote:he did not have control issues by any means. For his age, caliber and playing field - he was above average.

His K/B ratio BEFORE he hit AA was unreal, but then when he encountered talent closer to his level and the ratio came back to earth. His higher pitch counts may have been a result of trying to get too fine, but it may have been a byproduct of better hitters just not chasing pitches that aren't strikes.

He was certainly well ahead of his age group, but he wasn't a ML SP yet.

TuckerBlair89 wrote:There is a difference between needing refinement and not having a third pitch. This is not Kevin Gausman where the Slider is clearly lagging behind. Bundy has a solid Curve and Change and just needs to work on tightening up the command of both.

Again, IMO he's already a ML late inning RP who could close for at least half of the teams in this league. He just needs that third pitch to be able to get about 20 outs before he hits his pitch limit.

TuckerBlair89 wrote:He is clearly he most talented player in this organization to me, with Gausman getting the #1 slot due to being healthy and already in the bigs.

Agreed, but talent doesn't guarantee success.

TuckerBlair89 wrote:I just don't get the Bundy knocking anymore. What did he do wrong besides get hurt?

I don't see what I'm saying as a "knock". I see it more as a smaller glass of Kool Aid. I can remember members on this forum posting last winter that Bundy was virtually a lock for a 2013 rotation spot and I kept saying that we'd be lucky if he was available for 180 innings in 2014. I was right but for the worst reason.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #12 by ofahn » December 16th, 2013, 7:59 pm

osforlife wrote:his contract isn't a positive

Giving him a ML contract that was a HORRIBLE mistake that I hope he and the team can recover from.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #13 by Tucker Blair » December 16th, 2013, 8:08 pm

I disagree with your red flags. Outside of clearly being injured in ST, I saw nothing that was a red flag. I saw an extremely talented 20 year old pitcher who was on a normal path to the major leagues.

Bundy was a virtual lock for the rotation in 2013, but that was before his injury surfaced. Bundy is the one player I have done more research and discussion on in this entire organization outside of probably Kevin Gausman. I did not hear from one scout, one industry member that thought he had major red flags. All prospects have bumps and bruises that they need to work through, but those are not red flags. I still have no clue what you mean by not having a third pitch. He has three solid-plus pitches and a cutter they stopped letting him use that was also a good pitch.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #14 by ofahn » December 16th, 2013, 8:28 pm

TuckerBlair89 wrote:I disagree with your red flags. Outside of clearly being injured in ST, I saw nothing that was a red flag. I saw an extremely talented 20 year old pitcher who was on a normal path to the major leagues.

Again, take into consideration that I see him as a ML pitcher RIGHT NOW, just not a ML SP.

His ML contract makes it so much harder for him to meet his full potential in the time allowed for in the system. Slice out a year and a half from that and you start having to fill an inside straight. He needs to 1) have command and control of three above average pitches; 2) build his innings; 3) have no more set backs or delays. If all of that doesn't happen for him it sure won't be from lack of "want to". This isn't Billy Rowell, Dylan Bundy is one tough, motivated kid who would rather give up an arm than fail. I'm just concerned that there won't be enough time for him to develop into a plus SP.

TuckerBlair89 wrote:Bundy was a virtual lock for the rotation in 2013

If that was the case we would have had a "Strasburg dilemma". I would have sent him back to AAA until he showed me he could get at least 21 outs with the 100 pitches they were going to allow him. Of course, they rushed Gausman, too.

TuckerBlair89 wrote:I still have no clue what you mean by not having a third pitch. He has three solid-plus pitches and a cutter they stopped letting him use that was also a good pitch.

See above.
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Re: Baseball Prospectus Orioles Top 10 Prospects

PostPost #15 by Old Sneakers » December 17th, 2013, 4:42 am

If Bundy had been sharp at AAA up until the All Star break it's almost a certainty he would have been given an extended shot at being in the rotation the second half last year.

With the injury that thinking became a fantasy.

By July or August if he's healthy we will see him in a minor league affiliate. Which one? My guess is Frederick or Bowie in a relief role. When do we see him in Baltimore? 2015 as a closer perhaps. If he's allowed to build up innings in 2015 in the minors he's a shot at the rotation in 2016. It sucks. No denying that. Try to remember if he's thrust into some sort of Starting role in Baltimore prior to very late 2015 or early 2016 then likely the team is in dire straits or is making a decision that Bundy will always be a "What could have been" type player. Meaning that the team has to get something out of him immediately or nothing at all.
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