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Report: Cardinals deny a Shelby Miller for JJ Hardy Trade

Report: Cardinals deny a Shelby Miller for JJ Hardy Trade

PostPost #1 by AlexConway » November 13th, 2013, 11:37 am

It has been reported http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/cards-turned-down-orioles-pitch-for-shelby-miller.html by multiple outlets that the Cardinals turned down a trade which featured a Shelby Miller for J.J. Hardy as the center pieces.

I like the Orioles aggressiveness here in trying to acquire top flight Starting Pitching. I also understand why the Cardinals would turn that down. It will be very intriguing what the Orioles do with Hardy going forward. I am currently in the midst of writing a piece on why the Orioles SHOULDN'T extend Hardy, which essentially is advocating for trading him now.

What do others think about all this?
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Re: Report: Cardinals deny a Shelby Miller for JJ Hardy Trade

PostPost #2 by Old Sneakers » November 13th, 2013, 4:05 pm

The asking price on a rising star is going to be steep. Yes, JJ Hardy is an outstanding player. Even had this trade offer been made a year ago Hardy would not have been enough. Now Hardy has one less year under contract and a year older.

I don't know that I would call it "aggressiveness" though. It's become the norm. As for extending Hardy... the price will be high and while some power at SS is nice. I look at high .OBP and consistency at the plate more important. Hardy seems to start off so cold and streaky.
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Re: Report: Cardinals deny a Shelby Miller for JJ Hardy Trade

PostPost #3 by AlexConway » November 13th, 2013, 7:19 pm

Old Sneakers wrote:The asking price on a rising star is going to be steep. Yes, JJ Hardy is an outstanding player. Even had this trade offer been made a year ago Hardy would not have been enough. Now Hardy has one less year under contract and a year older.

I don't know that I would call it "aggressiveness" though. It's become the norm. As for extending Hardy... the price will be high and while some power at SS is nice. I look at high .OBP and consistency at the plate more important. Hardy seems to start off so cold and streaky.


Yeah, aggressiveness is probably the wrong word. I like that they are involved and being talked about in deals such as this. It tells me DD is willing to listen and wheel and deal even from so called core players to improve the team. I like that.

Another question, if Shelby Miller is on the table, what else other than Hardy would you throw in? Does anything else the Orioles have get it done for you, if your the Cardinals?
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Re: Report: Cardinals deny a Shelby Miller for JJ Hardy Trade

PostPost #4 by Tucker Blair » November 13th, 2013, 7:26 pm

Names I have seen floated around today that people thought the O's could add:

Jonathan Schoop
Eduardo Rodriguez
Mike Wright

Are you comfortable giving up one or two of those along with Hardy?
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Re: Report: Cardinals deny a Shelby Miller for JJ Hardy Trade

PostPost #5 by AlexConway » November 13th, 2013, 8:23 pm

TuckerBlair89 wrote:Names I have seen floated around today that people thought the O's could add:

Jonathan Schoop
Eduardo Rodriguez
Mike Wright

Are you comfortable giving up one or two of those along with Hardy?


Those were the guys I had in mind. I'd consider throwing in one of them. However, I think the Cardinals would want a young positional prospect if they are going to give up a young KNOWN good pitcher. And, I am not too keen on trading Schoop the only real impact positional prospect right now in the system that could help anytime soon.

Also, looking at Miller's numbers, he was good/great last year, but not spectacular. He had a pretty low BAPIP and his only really above average pitch was his fastball. He struck out a decent amount of people but, he also walked a good amount of people. Also, he did all of that in the NL.

If I'm the Orioles I try to deal Rick Porcello and center the deal around Jim Johnson. Not sure what else if anything the Tigers would want. But, if he is available I think the Orioles superb infield defense and his high GB% would lead to greatly improved results for Porcello.
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Re: Report: Cardinals deny a Shelby Miller for JJ Hardy Trade

PostPost #6 by ofahn » November 13th, 2013, 9:59 pm

Old Sneakers wrote:JJ Hardy is an outstanding player.

He may be the best option for the Cards this winter. Drew wants a really stupid contract and it will cost them a draft pick. Hardy is the best glove out there and St. Louis' lineup can afford his horrid OBA. If a trade is agreed on I could see the Cards asking for a 72 hr window to try to sign him to a two or three year extension.
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Re: Report: Cardinals deny a Shelby Miller for JJ Hardy Trade

PostPost #7 by ofahn » November 13th, 2013, 10:04 pm

AlexConway wrote:Those were the guys I had in mind. I'd consider throwing in one of them.

I would not. We need each of them to fill an upcoming hole. Maaayyybbbeee Rodriguez, but I would want David Freese included to cover 3B since Machado would go to SS.

Frankly, I would offer Hardy, Matusz or Patton, and between 3 and 5M for Miller and Freese. For us the money should be easier to part with than one of the few prospects our system has.
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Re: Report: Cardinals deny a Shelby Miller for JJ Hardy Trade

PostPost #8 by Old Sneakers » November 14th, 2013, 12:52 am

TuckerBlair89 wrote:Names I have seen floated around today that people thought the O's could add:

Jonathan Schoop
Eduardo Rodriguez
Mike Wright

Are you comfortable giving up one or two of those along with Hardy?



I could see either Schoop or Wright, not both. Rodriguez, no chance. It's hard to find good lefties with some velocity. After Rodriguez it's Tim Berry, who has not yet reached AA ball.

Oddly enough I think Wright has the best chance of becoming a strength in the rotation. Right handers are somewhat plentiful that said, you could part with him.

Lastly to ask for more than either Wright or Schoop to go with Hardy and I would say the Cardinals should call another team.
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Re: Report: Cardinals deny a Shelby Miller for JJ Hardy Trade

PostPost #9 by Steve Harrison » November 14th, 2013, 2:01 pm

1. I don't believe the Cardinals would have much desire in Schoop, given their logjam of great controllable and "young" infield talent with Matt Carpenter, Kolton Wong, and Freese. However, according to this article last night http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/ ... ese-trade/, Freese could be on the block. He would be a great addition to the lineup and can be a great clubhouse guy with World Series experience.

At the end of the day the lineup wasn't Baltimore's biggest issue in 2013, the rotation was, which brings me to my next issue.

2. I agree with Alex's suggestion of a Rick Porcello for Jim Johnson + pieces trade. Porcello is an experienced pitcher that knows how to win ball games in pressure situations that is still 24 years old. Yes, he will probably earn a sizable raise in arbitration but that will pale in comparison to the $10 million that Johnson is due to pitch another 70 innings. I like the trade on a basis of younger, cheaper, more innings. My only question is to why you think Porcello's numbers will improve with Baltimore's defense? Yes Cabrera is nowhere near Manny (with the glove) but Iglesias is more talented than Hardy and I would consider the right side of the infield a wash. I know Davis was a GG finalist but Fielder has been great in his career, 3 times leading the league in fewest errors at his position.

Looking forward to continuing this discussion and more like it as we get into the peak of hot stove season.

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Re: Report: Cardinals deny a Shelby Miller for JJ Hardy Trade

PostPost #10 by AlexConway » November 14th, 2013, 3:17 pm

Steve Harrison wrote:My only question is to why you think Porcello's numbers will improve with Baltimore's defense? Yes Cabrera is nowhere near Manny (with the glove) but Iglesias is more talented than Hardy and I would consider the right side of the infield a wash. I know Davis was a GG finalist but Fielder has been great in his career, 3 times leading the league in fewest errors at his position.


The idea of defense is run prevention on a team level. The Orioles team defense last year posted a 39.9 UZR good for 3rd in the MLB and 2nd in the AL. The Tigers team defense posted a -12.9 UZR good for 20th in the MLB and 9th in the AL.

The high-ish BABPIP for Porcello even with the high GB% leads me to believe that balls are falling in for hits with the Tigers current defense that probably wouldn't with the Orioles current defense. Therefore, Porcello would put up a better ERA with the Orioles than he did with the Tigers.
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Re: Report: Cardinals deny a Shelby Miller for JJ Hardy Trade

PostPost #11 by ofahn » November 14th, 2013, 3:50 pm

Steve Harrison wrote:I agree with Alex's suggestion of a Rick Porcello for Jim Johnson + pieces trade. Porcello is an experienced pitcher that knows how to win ball games in pressure situations that is still 24 years old. Yes, he will probably earn a sizable raise in arbitration but that will pale in comparison to the $10 million that Johnson is due to pitch another 70 innings. I like the trade on a basis of younger, cheaper, more innings. My only question is to why you think Porcello's numbers will improve with Baltimore's defense? Yes Cabrera is nowhere near Manny (with the glove) but Iglesias is more talented than Hardy and I would consider the right side of the infield a wash. I know Davis was a GG finalist but Fielder has been great in his career, 3 times leading the league in fewest errors at his position.


Steve,

First, welcome to the forum. I hope we'll hear much more from you.

Second, very solid first post. We give out Reputation Points for well considered and/or well researched submissions. You just earned your first POINT.

Third, some of what you posted is TRUE, but it's also not ACCURATE. Let me explain.

Cabrera isn't a hitter with a glove; he's a BUTCHER that can hit. Ozzie Smith could not have covered for him. Iglesias may have more talent. but Hardy is a much better defender. He's consistently plus with the glove and his throws and he has plus range. It's not even close. IMO Fielder is not even an average defender anymore. NO RANGE. None. So the error rate means nothing if you're not getting to the balls in play. Davis is only above average and he's light years better than Fielder.

Porcello is a ground ball pitcher and he was probably gun shy about allowing hitters to make contact because the results were too often ugly. I think he would be a good acquisition, but I wouldn't offer anything more than Johnson and maybe some money. The Tigers NEED, NEED a solid back end of their bullpen and the "free" agent is full of over priced has beens.

The Tigers need us more than we need them.
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Re: Report: Cardinals deny a Shelby Miller for JJ Hardy Trade

PostPost #12 by osforlife » November 14th, 2013, 3:53 pm

This is an interesting idea to throw around. The input regarding this topic on this forum have been great so far as well. Also, welcome to the site Steve Harrison!
The Cardinals are LOADED with young pitching talent. The elite pitchers in St.Louis that can still be characterized as starting potential, and are equal to or under the age of 27 include Lance Lynn (26), Joe Kelly (25), Shelby Miller (23), Michael Wacha (22), Jaime Garcia (27), Trevor Rosenthal (23), Carlos Martinez (22), John Gast (24), & Tim Cooney (22), Seth Maness (25). That is simply amazing. Some of these guys don't even spend that much time in the minors, so I think it's the possible that the Red Birds have an amazing drafting system. If I were John Mozeilik, all I would do this off-season is sign Johnny Peralta, while trading Descalso & Kozma. for bullpen pieces. Therefore, he could let Rosenthal, Martinez, and Maness train as starters in the minors.
C- Yadier Molina
1B- Matt Adams
2B- Kolten Wong
3B- David Freese
SS- Johnny Peralta
LF- Matt Holliday
CF- Jon Jay
RF- Oscar Taveras
This lineup of course, would include Allen Craig & Matt Carpenter playing everyday, at roaming positions.
1. Adam Wainwright
2. Lance Lynn
3. Shelby Miller
4. Joe Kelly
5. Michael Wacha
Jaime Garcia will most likely be rehabbing/extended spring-training---------------------------- AAA;
6. Tim Cooney
7. John Gast
8. Trevor Rosenthal
9. Seth Maness
10. Carlos Martinez
THAT, is a playoff team for the next five years.

If Mozeliek believes Hardy is worth the price of one of his young pitchers, then I could see him pulling the trigger. I like JJ Hardy for David Freese & a unknown major league commodity like Carlos Martinez/John Gast.
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Re: Report: Cardinals deny a Shelby Miller for JJ Hardy Trade

PostPost #13 by Seafordeagles » November 14th, 2013, 4:26 pm

osforlife, you had me until you said this:

"Therefore, he could let Rosenthal, Martinez, and Maness train as starters in the minors."

Rosenthal will be on the big league roster all year. He is so much more valuable to them out of the bullpen then "training in the minors to be a starter"

And they don't need another starter with the names you listed.
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Re: Report: Cardinals deny a Shelby Miller for JJ Hardy Trade

PostPost #14 by osforlife » November 14th, 2013, 4:30 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:osforlife, you had me until you said this:

"Therefore, he could let Rosenthal, Martinez, and Maness train as starters in the minors."

Rosenthal will be on the big league roster all year. He is so much more valuable to them out of the bullpen then "training in the minors to be a starter"

And they don't need another starter with the names you listed.

Starters are much more valuable than relievers. Rosenthal is only one year removed from being a starter, has killer stuff, has options, and is only 23. If he could become a starter, he would benefit the Cardinals much more, considering starters throw about three times the innings relievers throw.
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Re: Report: Cardinals deny a Shelby Miller for JJ Hardy Trade

PostPost #15 by ofahn » November 14th, 2013, 4:37 pm

osforlife wrote:Starters are much more valuable than relievers. Rosenthal is only one year removed from being a starter, has killer stuff, has options, and is only 23.

I agree with everything you said, but I think the Cards will keep him where he is. It would cost them a lot of money to replace him from the open market with someone who probably wouldn't be as effective.
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