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Would you pay Tanaka?

Would you pay Tanaka?

PostPost #1 by docjj » November 10th, 2013, 11:54 pm

He's young, durable, and has top of rotation makeup. Frankly, I think the best of the bunch out there. The Yanks want him badly (gee, go figure) and some say the posting fee may go as high as $70 million. That probably puts him out of reach for us. Just once, I'd like to see us make a splash. I'm tired of the washed up has-beens, never wasses, journeymen retreads we constantly bring in, hoping we'll find a Miguel Gonzales.
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Re: Would you pay Tanaka?

PostPost #2 by osforlife » November 11th, 2013, 10:29 am

He may be the best available starting pitcher. I say available because he's not technically a free agent. The posting fee is expected to go higher than Darvish, and Tanaka isn't in supposed to be better than Darvish. $120MM for a #2-#3 starter.? C'mon, Tanaka is destined to be with the Yankees/Dodgers. Ryan Vogelsong and Shaun Marcum are perfect for the Orioles, as they'll sign short-term and cheap. Vogelsong and Marcum had terrible 2013 seasons, but both had injury riddled seasons, and are prime candidates to bounce back.
2011-2012 Ryan Vogelsong; 369 IP, 3.05 ERA, 1.240 WHIP, 2.41 SO/BB
2010- 2012 Shaun Marcum; 520 IP, 3.62 ERA, 1.179 WHIP, 3.06 SO/BB
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Re: Would you pay Tanaka?

PostPost #3 by Tucker Blair » November 11th, 2013, 10:55 am

I highly recommend reading this piece by Hudson Belinsky.
http://battingleadoff.com/2013/11/07/ma ... -he-worth/
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Re: Would you pay Tanaka?

PostPost #4 by Old Sneakers » November 11th, 2013, 1:10 pm

TuckerBlair89 wrote:I highly recommend reading this piece by Hudson Belinsky.
http://battingleadoff.com/2013/11/07/ma ... -he-worth/


Good Link. Thank you for sharing.

But to answer the question: I think the answer is a resounding "No!"

This team has roughly .500 talent. It's just now seeing an improvement in cash flow. I honestly think the only way this team avoids mediocrity short term and enjoys success long term is through the amateur draft. Every year I look at the Rays and think we could do that. The Diamondbacks are quickly becoming the beauty queen in that regard. These teams are just loaded and before they fire a single shot are already loading up another salvo.

International markets are something the team needs to be involved in. There are good players abroad that can be signed to affordable contracts and develop into sound investments. These bidding wars are an injury catastrophe waiting to happen.

That article stated the following:

The acquisition of Yu Darvish will cost the Rangers just under $18 million per season, considering the six-year pact, the posting fee of $52 million, and the contract of $56 million. This pales in comparison to the average annual salaries in the recent deals for Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, and Felix Hernandez, whose salaries will average over $25, and there’s an argument that Darvish is better than all three of these pitchers.


I'll give the article Zack Greinke. But I feel better about the Orioles drafting, developing and eventually paying the next Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez. I am not interested in seeing a guy that has done nothing yet getting big money. That kind of thinking is going to see baseball slip right back into "Who Cares" land again where it was 12 years ago.

This is still primarily an American sport. That is where the elite talent is going to come from. Yes, again good players can be found abroad. The heavy lifting however comes from what is already in place.
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Re: Would you pay Tanaka?

PostPost #5 by docjj » November 11th, 2013, 1:40 pm

But we seriously suck at identifying, developing, and maintaining the health of amateur talent. Besides Wieters and Machado who I could have picked in the draft, what else have we produced in the past 30 years? ZERO.

I'm done. I'll post $70 million to Japan and hope for the best...
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Re: Would you pay Tanaka?

PostPost #6 by Old Sneakers » November 11th, 2013, 3:59 pm

docjj wrote:But we seriously suck at identifying, developing, and maintaining the health of amateur talent. Besides Wieters and Machado who I could have picked in the draft, what else have we produced in the past 30 years? ZERO.

I'm done. I'll post $70 million to Japan and hope for the best...


Honestly, I think it really comes down to rushing talent. I keep thinking had Matusz and Arrieta been just left to build up innings in Norfolk they might have had a better feel for putting the ball in play, getting through innings more efficiently and ended up solid starters in Baltimore. Instead of taking a monetary bullet back in 2009 and over-paying a few veterans we ended up harming ourselves.

If the team doesn't promote Mike Wright to Baltimore before rosters expand next season. I will predict he has a chance of sticking in the rotation in 2015. I won't say he will be better than a 5th starter his first go in a five man rotation. But he will be better than the 8th and 9th man that Arrieta and Matusz were. The same will likely hold true for Rodriguez the following year. In the end, I think both end up solid but unspectacular #3 types.
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Re: Would you pay Tanaka?

PostPost #7 by ofahn » November 13th, 2013, 10:43 am

docjj wrote:He's young, durable, and has top of rotation makeup. Frankly, I think the best of the bunch out there. The Yanks want him badly (gee, go figure) and some say the posting fee may go as high as $70 million. That probably puts him out of reach for us. Just once, I'd like to see us make a splash. I'm tired of the washed up has-beens, never wasses, journeymen retreads we constantly bring in, hoping we'll find a Miguel Gonzales.


I feel your pain, but I have to ask: What would signing him cost us in talent? We would almost certainly have to trade Wieters or Davis, or Hardy or even Jones to make room for his salary.

This owner has not shown a real interest in investing in this team's future. During MacPhail's tenure we cut ML payroll by a cumulative excess of 80M and about 10% of that actually went back into the draft budget, which had been too low to begin with. We spent more on Kevin Gregg's salary than we had on ALL International signings during the previous ten years. When we were trading veterans we showed absolutely no willingness to send money in order to get better prospects with ONE significant exception - the trade with Texas where we sent 2M along with Koji to get Davis and Hunter. I can only dream of where this team might be now if we would have done more of that.

A good comparison is the Nationals. We draw about the same in attendance and TV market is about the same except Angelos gets about 70% of their MASN money yet the Nats' payroll was larger than ours by 26M last year and will be again this year. Over the last five years they have substantially out spent us in amateur talent, too. IMO THAT'S the difference in commitment to winning.

Docjj, I respect your passion to improve this team, but unless you have a big a**ed crowbar you can use to pry open Peter's wallet guys like Tanaka aren't going to happen for us.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/
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Re: Would you pay Tanaka?

PostPost #8 by ofahn » November 13th, 2013, 10:45 am

Old Sneakers wrote:If the team doesn't promote Mike Wright to Baltimore before rosters expand next season

IMO neither Wright nor Gausman should be back in the Baltimore rotation UNTIL they can consistently get through at least seven innings at AAA. NO EXCEPTIONS!
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Re: Would you pay Tanaka?

PostPost #9 by ofahn » November 13th, 2013, 10:49 am

Old Sneakers wrote:Honestly, I think it really comes down to rushing talent.

I questioned whether we rushing Gausman last year the first time he was brought up and got smoked by some members whose baseball opinions I really respect. We all saw how THAT worked out.

For the love of Ross Grimsley make about three Jair Jurrgens type investments in SPs this winter so that we don't have to rush anyone before they're ready.
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Re: Would you pay Tanaka?

PostPost #10 by ofahn » November 13th, 2013, 10:50 am

docjj wrote:But we seriously suck at identifying, developing, and maintaining the health of amateur talent.

I've written about that problem SO many times I have callouses on my fingers.
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Re: Would you pay Tanaka?

PostPost #11 by Old Sneakers » November 13th, 2013, 4:08 pm

ofahn wrote:
This owner has not shown a real interest in investing in this team's future.


Good news!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Angelos?editintro=Template:BLP_editintro

He's 84 years old!
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Re: Would you pay Tanaka?

PostPost #12 by Seafordeagles » November 14th, 2013, 5:04 pm

I would never be opposed to signing Tanaka. Of course I want Angelos to spend a lot more of his "profits" than he does now. He's done it before (late 90's) and he can certainly do it again.

I wonder how much money he has made off of the Baltimore Orioles. I'm certain it's not public knowledge. I don't consider the Orioles a "small market team". Although I'm sure he does.
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Re: Would you pay Tanaka?

PostPost #13 by mikezpen » November 17th, 2013, 12:00 am

He's 84 years old!


But he's got 2 sons.
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Re: Would you pay Tanaka?

PostPost #14 by Old Sneakers » November 18th, 2013, 4:31 am

mikezpen wrote:
But he's got 2 sons.


"Greed is good!" ~Michael Douglas

There is a good chance that the team will be sold following the inevitable. Usually within a year. It happened to the Redskins with Jack Kent Cooke. Let's just pray we don't end up with a Dan Snyder.
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