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MLB Trade Rumors Baltimore Orioles Offseason Outlook

MLB Trade Rumors Baltimore Orioles Offseason Outlook

PostPost #1 by ofahn » October 30th, 2013, 12:14 pm

MLBTR posted a quality assessment of what went wrong this season and what moves the team might make this winter. They speculate that we could re-sign Scott Feldman and I could see that happening. They also suggest that we might re-sign Jason Hammel if his price doesn't go beyond about 7M.

I can't see him getting that kind of money from us, or anyone else. Even the Yankees, who consider themselves contenders and need SP, probably wouldn't pay him that. If Hammel sets his price at about 3M base with incentives taking him up to as much as 10M I could see him pretty much having his pick of teams; including us.

MLBTR suggests we might trade Britton and/or Matusz because they're out of options. I agree; however, I'm not sure I agree with their speculation that we would go after Howie Kendrick. He's a solid enough defender, but though his OBA is about .20 above out pitiful team average from last year he's not really the big leap forward we need. When you're carrying horrible OBA's like Wieters' and Hardy's you really need to pick up the slack someone else.

IMO we need three things to happen this winter to make us a playoff team again next season:

1) acquire one SP capable of giving us at least 200 innings and another one capable of at least 180
2) have our other three SPs come into ST in good enough shape to give us at least 550 innings combined
3) our hitters need to remember that you don't win any prizes for swing at every pitch you see. Some simple plate discipline would make all the difference in the world. Work the count in your favor and you'll see better pitches. Doubt that? Why do you think the Red Sox are in the WS?


http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/o ... ioles.html
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Re: MLB Trade Rumors Baltimore Orioles Offseason Outlook

PostPost #2 by mikezpen » October 30th, 2013, 2:31 pm

Their assessment leaves me cold. The Orioles have to be a lot more proactive than that.
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Re: MLB Trade Rumors Baltimore Orioles Offseason Outlook

PostPost #3 by ofahn » October 30th, 2013, 4:23 pm

mikezpen wrote:Their assessment leaves me cold. The Orioles have to be a lot more proactive than that.

I'm not so sure. Frankly, aside from adding the two SPs I think self improvement would really make the difference here.
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Re: MLB Trade Rumors Baltimore Orioles Offseason Outlook

PostPost #4 by Old Sneakers » October 31st, 2013, 11:14 am

I think Norris is a SP next season. This team seems unlikely to add more than one legit SP so he will be needed there. I also think the team moved heaven and earth to keep T.J. McFarland last season. Seems like too much trouble for a solid bullpen arm. My guess he's in the minors to start next season and trying to be worked as a starter.

I've pretty much reached the end of patience with Nolan Reimold and would be perfectly OK with them letting him go as a minor league free agent. The team may have to sign a couple utility type players that would be decent DH types as well. I don't think power is what is needed half so much as players that get on base as well as being able to handle 3B, 2B and LF. Machode starting the season coming back from injury and Schoop needs more time in AAA.

Back to the bullpen: I think we need someone capable of closing the odd game as well as capable of throwing about 3 relief innings a week. Jim Johnson shouldn't be over exposed as he has been the last two years.
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Re: MLB Trade Rumors Baltimore Orioles Offseason Outlook

PostPost #5 by Seafordeagles » October 31st, 2013, 11:47 am

My opinion is the Orioles need a "innings eater" instead of the 5 1/3 innings type. Matt Garza fills that bill. He gobbles up innings.
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Re: MLB Trade Rumors Baltimore Orioles Offseason Outlook

PostPost #6 by mikezpen » October 31st, 2013, 12:03 pm

I think all of this is dribbling around the edges of the problem.The Orioles need TOR pitcher, not a couple of #4's like Garza,Feldman or Hammel. You see how the WS was decided.The need a second baseman who can get on base and a left fielder who does likewise (MC LOUTH DOESN'T). And (I agree) they need another dependable back of the bullpen guy.

They can't do this by hanging on to a core whose 2 top players will likely walk in two years, along w/re-signing a couple of middling pitchers and a bunch of 4-A players like they did last year.And they won't have enough to contend with only that unless there is one whole lot of "self-improvement" (Wieters, are you reading this?) on that team.

They need to trade big to improve big.I think that's the only way.
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Re: MLB Trade Rumors Baltimore Orioles Offseason Outlook

PostPost #7 by ofahn » October 31st, 2013, 12:30 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:Matt Garza fills that bill.

1) His injury history makes him anything but reliable.
2) He's going to want more than Edwin Jackson and look how well THAT contract turned out.
3) With ownership imposing a tight budget which player do you want to get rid of to pay for Garza? Wieters? Davis? Hardy? Jim Johnson?
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Re: MLB Trade Rumors Baltimore Orioles Offseason Outlook

PostPost #8 by Seafordeagles » October 31st, 2013, 2:23 pm

Never mind, Garza sucks. I don't know what I was thinking. I had a brain cramp. Thanks for setting me straight.
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Re: MLB Trade Rumors Baltimore Orioles Offseason Outlook

PostPost #9 by Old Sneakers » October 31st, 2013, 5:02 pm

#1 TOR type pitchers = Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Adam Wainwright, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels. These are the elite SP that teams build around. These are cornerstone talents.

#2 type Rotation Mainstays = Max Scherzer, James Shields, R.A. Dickey, Chris Sale, Adam Wainwright. These are a tic or two below the top guys. They do have up and down seasons but typically are a younger still establishing themselves or beginning to show age.

#3 Inning Eaters = Jeremy Guthrie, C.J. Wilson, Derek Holland, Jordan Zimmermann, Homer Bailey, Patrick Corbin, Mike Minor and too many more to list... These are guy's that you feel really good about getting close too or exceeding 200 IP a year. Sometimes they are inconsistent guys that are getting better or older guys that are a little more risky.

#4 Average SP = These are typical free agent SP far too many to list. Their E.R.A.'s typically are anywhere from 4.0-4.5 and seem to get around 150-175 IP each year. Usually these are younger guys establishing themselves or older guys that no longer have the durability they once had. These all have limitations, but are generally considered making positive contributions to average and competing teams.

#5 Fringe Starting Pitchers If you are familiar with the Baltimore Orioles long list of Starting Pitchers over the past 5 years, then you are all too familiar. Sometimes these are prospects trying to break into the big leagues and stake a claim to a SP role or Depth players whom bounce back and fourth between the majors and minors. Additionally #5 type SP are pitchers with severe history of injuries and seem unable to hold a place in the rotation for long.

I didn't write all that out to tickle myself. I did it so folks might have some sort of barometer when saying this player is a TOR or #2 type guy... Matt Garza in my opinion is basically a #4 (Not having hit 200 IP since 2010) I would also lavel Bud Norris and Wei-Yin Chen as sound #4s. I am not putting either down with that designation. I just don't consider them 200 IP type guys or durable enough that pushing them to get that many IP in a year a smart move.


In my opinion the team should target either Depth or #3 types. Another inning eater like we had in Guthrie a couple years ago would really go a long way toward keeping the bullpen fresh as well as not depleting our prospects out of necessity.

I would feel good sliding Feldman into the #4 almost a #3 category. Same as Bronson Arroyo, yes he's hit 200 IP a bunch of times and been very solid, but he's now 36 years old and you have to consider wear and tear. At some point you know durability becomes a big factor.

What about Scott Baker? He's coming back from T.J. Surgery but if he checks out medically and looked good to pro-scouts he might be a very worthwhile signing that doesn't cost a fortune.

Personally I am fond of Ervin Santana and Scott Feldman as the primary focus. But also still feel good at teasing Bartolo Colon with a sick one year incentive based contract.

All this talk and poorly expressed articles we see about the team getting a "#1 SP in the offseason to pair with Chris Tillman" is horse manure. But we do need SP capable of averaging 6-7 IP per start. Even with an ordinary ERA it would work well in the teams favor.
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Re: MLB Trade Rumors Baltimore Orioles Offseason Outlook

PostPost #10 by osforlife » November 1st, 2013, 2:29 pm

I don't really examine innings pitched as much as other people. Obviously, durability season after season is a great thing to have. But, how long a pitcher stays in the game is entirely the manager's decision. There are some pitchers that are more pitch efficient than others yes, but I tend to look at the quality of innings, not the quantity of innings. If the pitcher is pitching well, he'll naturally stay in the game longer. If a pitcher isn't pitching well, he'll naturally get pulled from the game earlier. If a pitcher is throwing many balls, or giving up many walks, he could get lucky and exit the game with an ERA. But, sooner or later, that trait will bite him in the butt, and raise the number of runs he allows; which naturally takes his out of the game earlier. This is just my way of looking at things.
#1; an ERA under 3.00
#2; an ERA between 3.00 & 3.50
#3; an ERA between 3.50 & 4.00
#4; an ERA between 4.00 & 4.50
#5; an ERA above 4.50

It's a very simple way of looking at the position of pitchers in an imaginary rotation. This system would record Matt Garza as a #3. It would rate Scott Feldman as a borderline #5, but his peripherals have always been solid. So maybe the luck dragon is finally starting to lean his way.
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