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The Real Issue: Starting Pitching

Re: The Real Issue: Starting Pitching

PostPost #16 by Seafordeagles » October 18th, 2013, 6:05 pm

osforlife wrote:Thank you for bringing up my mistake. I totally botched what I was trying to say. Okay, let me start over. Manny Machado is a very good player, and it is truly amazing how valuable he was able to be at age twenty. It will be a joke if he doesn't win a gold glove. But, in 2013, he was really only fairly productive at the plate. He was Baltimore's third best offensive player, but was no where near the offensive caliber that Adam Jones and Chris Davis produced at. Machado didn't get on-base at a very effective rate, and didn't hit for an excessive amount of power.

Offensive Comparison

Player A's 2013: .283/.314/.432
Player B's Career: .282/.316/.423

Player A is Manny Machado; Player B is Delmon Young. Tell me again why it is so ridiculous to compare a .746 OPS to a .739 OPS?


No Manny is not Adam Jones and I don't know who said he was. Manny is a lot younger and has only had a little over a year in the majors. I for one am not looking at "faults" in his game or comparing him to anyone else.

Back to the ridiculousness and Delmon young. I'm totally speechless about your argument thinking that they are comparable. Maybe if Manny was a DH and fat and slow I might agree, but this is the real world and there is a hell of a lot more to baseball than OPS stats.
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Re: The Real Issue: Starting Pitching

PostPost #17 by osforlife » October 19th, 2013, 10:15 am

Seafordeagles wrote:
No Manny is not Adam Jones and I don't know who said he was. Manny is a lot younger and has only had a little over a year in the majors. I for one am not looking at "faults" in his game or comparing him to anyone else.

Back to the ridiculousness and Delmon young. I'm totally speechless about your argument thinking that they are comparable. Maybe if Manny was a DH and fat and slow I might agree, but this is the real world and there is a hell of a lot more to baseball than OPS stats.

I'll repeat once again, Manny is an amazing player. It's truly outstanding how much value he was able to provide at age 21. I'm not concerned with his future. He'll be an amazing player. That being said, in 2013, he was only fairly productive. Old Sneakers grouped Machado together with Davis and Jones offensively, which shouldn't have been done IMO. He was okay, not very good really, and certainly not elite. Again, I'm only comparing Delmon Young & Manny Machado offensively. I did put "Offensive Comparison" in bold, large letters. Machado is obviously the superior PLAYER, but has he been the better HITTER? It's not like Machado is providing a value on the base-paths. In 2013, Young provided zero net steals while Machado provided negative one net steals. In his career, Delmon Young has slashed a .282/.316/.423. In 2013, Machado has slashed .283/.314/.432. Tell me why comparing a .746 OPS to a .739 OPS is wrong? I'm not talking about defensive value, strictly offensive value.
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Re: The Real Issue: Starting Pitching

PostPost #18 by Seafordeagles » October 19th, 2013, 3:07 pm

osforlife wrote:Tell me why comparing a .746 OPS to a .739 OPS is wrong? I'm not talking about defensive value, strictly offensive value.


Because you are talking about slightly over a year in the majors for Manny and 8 years for Delmon Young. Come back to me in 7 years and I bet you see a much bigger differential for each of their first 8 years in the league.
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Re: The Real Issue: Starting Pitching

PostPost #19 by Old Sneakers » October 20th, 2013, 12:27 am

IMO it's not an incomprehensibly bad comparison. Certainly Manny Machado has a much higher impact (health issues being the lone unknown factor) in the coming years. But for right now it's not terrible.

The cool thing is there is a very high chance that with time his plate discipline will get better and he will draw walks. Or maybe Manny becomes that rare guy that every pitcher has to really fight to get out. Meaning he stays a contact hitter and runs up pitch counts.
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Re: The Real Issue: Starting Pitching

PostPost #20 by osforlife » October 20th, 2013, 8:17 am

Seafordeagles wrote:
Because you are talking about slightly over a year in the majors for Manny and 8 years for Delmon Young. Come back to me in 7 years and I bet you see a much bigger differential for each of their first 8 years in the league.

Maybe because I'm not comparing Delmon Young to what Machado COULD/WILL be, I'm comparng Delmon Young to what Manny Machado HAS BEEN. Everybody always goes on about how terrible of a player Delmon Young is, myself included, even at hitting. Yet, Machado WAS not better than Young's offensive average. In all reality, whether you want to believe it or not, Machado & Young's batting lines have a microscopic difference between them. I'm not comparing age, capability, or defense; I'm simply comparing two very similar batting lines.
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Re: The Real Issue: Starting Pitching

PostPost #21 by Tucker Blair » October 20th, 2013, 10:18 am

I think you all will enjoy the piece Orioles Nation will have running on Monday.
I just brought on another writer. He has some interesting comparisons on Machado. Some will agree, some might have a few discrepancies. But it's a good read.
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Re: The Real Issue: Starting Pitching

PostPost #22 by Seafordeagles » October 20th, 2013, 11:37 am

osforlife wrote:Maybe because I'm not comparing Delmon Young to what Machado COULD/WILL be, I'm comparng Delmon Young to what Manny Machado HAS BEEN. Everybody always goes on about how terrible of a player Delmon Young is, myself included, even at hitting. Yet, Machado WAS not better than Young's offensive average. In all reality, whether you want to believe it or not, Machado & Young's batting lines have a microscopic difference between them. I'm not comparing age, capability, or defense; I'm simply comparing two very similar batting lines.


But you HAVE to compare age because you have a very small sample from Manny and a much larger sample from Young. I expect Manny's numbers to increase yearly and then there won't be any comparison whatsoever. Also Delmon Young is a platoon player and Manny is not.

You keeps saying they are comparable and I'm going to keep saying 1 year versus 8 years.
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Re: The Real Issue: Starting Pitching

PostPost #23 by osforlife » October 20th, 2013, 1:40 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:I expect Manny's numbers to increase yearly and then there won't be any comparison whatsoever.


I'm not citing what Machado will do in the future. I'm not predicting what Machado will do in the future. I'm not comparing what Machado will be in five years to what Delmon Young is now. I'm not saying that Machado will never get better and only stay at his current production. I'm not comparing their defensive capabilities. I'm not comparing age. I'm not saying Machado's career will follow Young's career path.

"Honestly as for the 2013 offense Davis, Jones and Machado were nothing short of brilliant." Old Sneakers said this. I disagree with that statement. He WAS only somewhat productive. Do you think a .746 OPS is brilliant or something? I sure don't. It's amazing he was able to do that at age 20. He WILL be a GREAT hitter someday IMO. He's already a GREAT player. As of right now, he's not a GREAT hitter, and I just wanted to get the point across that Machado's offensive production WAS very far away from brilliant production because it seems like users of this site were lumping Machado's offensive production with Jones' and Davis'.

I'm comparing what one player has been to what another player has been. No, they do not have similar sample sizes. I wanted to use a player that everybody seems to hate(I do indeed dislike him) to compare him to Machado(whom everybody seems to think he was amazing offensively.)
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Re: The Real Issue: Starting Pitching

PostPost #24 by Old Sneakers » October 20th, 2013, 2:38 pm

Only one way to settle this: Creamed Corn Wrestling! :lol:

Honestly, of all the goofy things that each and everyone of use puts out as opinion on this board...

This is much ado about nothing.
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Re: The Real Issue: Starting Pitching

PostPost #25 by thezeroes » October 20th, 2013, 3:54 pm

Delmon Young first two years
192 Games
812 Plate Appearances
293/319/419/738 Slash Line
47 Doubles 1 Triple 16 Home Run

Manny Machado first two years
207 Games
912 Plate Appearances
279/309/435/744 Slash Line
59 Doubles 6 Triples 21 Homeruns

http://www.baseball-reference.com/
Try using the above to look things up and use your own judgment on comparisons.
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Re: The Real Issue: Starting Pitching

PostPost #26 by osforlife » October 21st, 2013, 4:12 pm

I just wanted to make the point that a .746 OPS is indeed, not brilliant. It is brilliant for a 20 year old, yes. Unfortunately, you don't get charity points for being young, or old, or fat. Stats are stats. A .746 OPS is far from brilliant. I understand it was easy to think that(lots of hype, lots of talk aboot how good Manny Machado is). But after repeated opportunities to actually look at a statistics page, I don't see how anybody can argue that a .746 OPS is brilliant.
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Re: The Real Issue: Starting Pitching

PostPost #27 by ofahn » February 17th, 2014, 12:33 pm

osforlife wrote:I feel like some users on this site feel like our offense wasn't productive this year.

I would agree that the 2013 Orioles' offense was productive, but I would question how EFFECTIVE it was.

We lost WAY to many one run games last year for me to accept that our offense was effective OR efficient. In 2012 we seem to find a way to manufacture a run (it wasn't always pretty) just when it was needed. In 2013 we hit a lot more HRs, but couldn't seem to score the runs we needed to win game after game.

Power excites fans, but manufacturing runs can beat good pitching, and in a playoff environment you either beat the good pitching you will face or you go home.

I love watching moon shots, but I don't like Wieters' .287 OBP, or Hardy's .306, or Jones' .318. I have some hope that Machado will improve that aspect of his game as he matures and that Markakis will be healthy this year, but this team needs to fundamentally change its offense approach or it will be a long time before we celebrate another WS victory in this town.
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Re: The Real Issue: Starting Pitching

PostPost #28 by osforlife » February 17th, 2014, 2:49 pm

ofahn wrote:I would agree that the 2013 Orioles' offense was productive, but I would question how EFFECTIVE it was.

We lost WAY to many one run games last year for me to accept that our offense was effective OR efficient. In 2012 we seem to find a way to manufacture a run (it wasn't always pretty) just when it was needed. In 2013 we hit a lot more HRs, but couldn't seem to score the runs we needed to win game after game.

Power excites fans, but manufacturing runs can beat good pitching, and in a playoff environment you either beat the good pitching you will face or you go home.

I love watching moon shots, but I don't like Wieters' .287 OBP, or Hardy's .306, or Jones' .318. I have some hope that Machado will improve that aspect of his game as he matures and that Markakis will be healthy this year, but this team needs to fundamentally change its offense approach or it will be a long time before we celebrate another WS victory in this town.


I can easily make the case that the Orioles lost more one run games in 2013 than 2012 because the bullpen's ERA went from 5th to 15th. Or maybe because the overall team ERA went from 14th to 23rd. Luck also plays a part. There's no definitive answer as to why the 2012 Orioles were better at winning one run games. No, the Orioles were not a small ball team, who would be when you have the most powerful team on the planet? But, the Orioles were at least decent in a number of "run producing" categories;

-5th best OPS when the game is late and close
-9th best OPS when the game is tied
-4th best OPS when the team is behind
-6th best OPS when runners are in scoring position
-4th best OPS with runners on
-10th most sacrifice flies
-28th least amount of time grounded into a double play
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Re: The Real Issue: Starting Pitching

PostPost #29 by ofahn » February 17th, 2014, 8:21 pm

osforlife wrote:There's no definitive answer as to why the 2012 Orioles were better at winning one run games.

Yes there is. That offense was less reliant on the HR.

There were many reasons for the failure of the 2013 season, but the one problem that was consistent from the beginning was the inability to manufacture runs.
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Re: The Real Issue: Starting Pitching

PostPost #30 by ofahn » February 17th, 2014, 8:24 pm

osforlife wrote:No, the Orioles were not a small ball team, who would be when you have the most powerful team on the planet? But, the Orioles were at least decent in a number of "run producing" categories;

A large portion of that success was skewed by playing in Camden Yards. It's also the reason we have a hard time attracting quality pitchers.
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