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Ranking the 2011 Draft prospects

Re: Ranking the 2011 Draft prospects

PostPost #76 by Don » April 22nd, 2011, 2:13 pm

There is always the chance that someone could fall in the laps, but both have been under a microscope for almost a year now. If those three teams simply ignore Rendon and Cole and allow the Orioles the chance to select either one, it simpl goes to show you that this system still does not draft on talent and drafts on dollar figures.

Rendon can drop because teams fear injuries and failing to comeback 100%. This is crazy talk because Rendon was a better hitter than Bryce Harper last season and would have easily went off number 1 in my opinion. Rendon is a dual threat for contact and power. Once his ankle fully responds next season, he should be a quick jump to the majors.

1. Rendon could be passed because of Pedro Alverez, but one of the two will not stick at third and both have the pop to stay at first. I feel Cole is a better prospect and if the Pirates passed on him for Rendon I would hold no arguments because in August of last year he was by far the best talent on the field and this injury should not hurt him long term.

2. Mariners can use his bat to build up their system and give its' fans some hope of a quick rising position player. He should be locked into this team, but do they fear the inury. Teams have done worse with less information.

3. Diamondbacks want arms, but they play in the NL West. You can get away without simply strike out and fly ball guys, which tend to be graded down by teams. Teams perfer down in the zone types, but high ball pitchers can get away with more because they play in Petco, Chavez, PNC for a nice chunk of games. Diamondbacks have a few nice corner players and could pass on Rendon, but Owings is their only legitmate fielder at short. Matt Davidson, while a good hitter, should be moved to the outfield overtime. Gaping hole at third could be filled with Rendon. They could easily get a quality pitcher at 7, but no bat like Rendon at the corner.
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Re: Ranking the 2011 Draft prospects

PostPost #77 by Don » April 22nd, 2011, 9:31 pm

Well scratch Mikie Mahtook off the Orioles wish list. He looked lost and confused against Gray, who was not at his best this evening. Mahtook was a dark horse who was jumping into top ten consideration seeing he is still showing legit pop in these new aluminum bats, but he might not be worth top five status without doing damage against the top pitchers. He can make up for it with solid hitting in the tournament.
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Re: Ranking the 2011 Draft prospects

PostPost #78 by allstar1579 » April 23rd, 2011, 9:57 am

Don wrote:There is always the chance that someone could fall in the laps, but both have been under a microscope for almost a year now. If those three teams simply ignore Rendon and Cole and allow the Orioles the chance to select either one, it simpl goes to show you that this system still does not draft on talent and drafts on dollar figures.

Rendon can drop because teams fear injuries and failing to comeback 100%. This is crazy talk because Rendon was a better hitter than Bryce Harper last season and would have easily went off number 1 in my opinion. Rendon is a dual threat for contact and power. Once his ankle fully responds next season, he should be a quick jump to the majors.

1. Rendon could be passed because of Pedro Alverez, but one of the two will not stick at third and both have the pop to stay at first. I feel Cole is a better prospect and if the Pirates passed on him for Rendon I would hold no arguments because in August of last year he was by far the best talent on the field and this injury should not hurt him long term.

2. Mariners can use his bat to build up their system and give its' fans some hope of a quick rising position player. He should be locked into this team, but do they fear the inury. Teams have done worse with less information.

3. Diamondbacks want arms, but they play in the NL West. You can get away without simply strike out and fly ball guys, which tend to be graded down by teams. Teams perfer down in the zone types, but high ball pitchers can get away with more because they play in Petco, Chavez, PNC for a nice chunk of games. Diamondbacks have a few nice corner players and could pass on Rendon, but Owings is their only legitmate fielder at short. Matt Davidson, while a good hitter, should be moved to the outfield overtime. Gaping hole at third could be filled with Rendon. They could easily get a quality pitcher at 7, but no bat like Rendon at the corner.


The bigger questions to ask as far as the Diamondbacks is can they take one of the elite prospects at #3 and still afford to take someone at #7? I think they split the difference on both instead of taking one top player and one drastic overdraft (see Storen, Drew). Hultzen has to give his written permission to AZ for them to draft him, but I DOUBT that becomes a major issue even though his dad is really peeved at them for the first draft.

Rendon and Cole are gone #1 and #2, you can lock that down now. I think PIT goes Cole, they need to build a pitching stable, and SEA will gobble up Rendon in a hurry.
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Re: Ranking the 2011 Draft prospects

PostPost #79 by Don » April 23rd, 2011, 10:37 am

Money cures all ills, but Hultzen family was 100% intent on going to UVA and honor the commitment. I remember the post comments from his father and laughed them off because he was never going to the pro's right away and the reason he dropped to the 10th round. My former organization made a lot of avenues to find if he would sign and they were set to draft him in the 3-4th round a few years back.

It is logical to take the easy sign with one of the picks, but this is a different draft. There are 5 players that would have been strong considerations for the first overall pick in past recent drafts, outside of Strasburg and some for Bryce Harper. It depends on Kendricks and whether he wants some fiscal responsibility. Towers has no choice at the 7th pick and I would not be surprised if that happened, but this is a very, very weak College Senior class. I do not see anyone even close to a first round pick from that rank. Storen was at least a supplemental grade and I just do not even see that this season.
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Re: Ranking the 2011 Draft prospects

PostPost #80 by ShowalterPower » April 23rd, 2011, 8:03 pm

Trevor Bauer has performed just as well, if not better than Gerrit Cole. Why is Cole the much better prospect?
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Re: Ranking the 2011 Draft prospects

PostPost #81 by Don » April 23rd, 2011, 10:11 pm

Trevor Bauer might not have stuff that alarms arm injury, but there are quite a few things in his delivery that are key timing pieces. He has command problems in part from these quirky hands, dip/jump and a bit of wasted motion as the timing is slightly off center under slow motion.
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Re: Ranking the 2011 Draft prospects

PostPost #82 by Don » April 24th, 2011, 11:41 am

Here is a quick question for the fans

Would you rather have a guy that could quickly make a major league roster within 2 years that would at least be a slightly above service major league player with a great chance to at least be on a team for a few seasons?

or

Would you take a guy with more projection than polish that could be a lighting in the bottle type major league player?

With regards to this draft, I think the projected players are solid enough to be at least serviceable players in a reduced role, but could be staples for the team for a decade.
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Re: Ranking the 2011 Draft prospects

PostPost #83 by Shorebirdfan » April 24th, 2011, 1:18 pm

Don wrote:Here is a quick question for the fans

Would you rather have a guy that could quickly make a major league roster within 2 years that would at least be a slightly above service major league player with a great chance to at least be on a team for a few seasons?

or

Would you take a guy with more projection than polish that could be a lighting in the bottle type major league player?


It's a great question. I'll take the lightning in a bottle guy. That said however, it seems to me that these are the guys that can be found sliding down the draft board (for money or other question marks). To me, in the first round, and more specifically at the top of the first round, you've got to be hitting on "can't miss" (I know there is no such thing) type guys.

Best examples from last draft were (in my opinion) Ranaudo at 39 by the Red Sox and AJ Cole leading off round 4 by the Nats. That's the kind of thing I'd like to see the O's pull off this year.

With regards to this draft, I think the projected players are solid enough to be at least serviceable players in a reduced role, but could be staples for the team for a decade.
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Re: Ranking the 2011 Draft prospects

PostPost #84 by Rising O's » April 25th, 2011, 6:45 am

I fear the Orioles lack of upper level pitching talent will ultimately decide which pitcher to take. While I'm okay with finding a fast moving arm, in this particular draft I feel they need to choose the guy with the most upside. Mostly due to the fact that the AL East has far too many picks to compete with coupled with our non-presence internationally.

Danny Hultzen seems like a poor man's Brian Matusz. For the right team he makes sense, but not for us.

Jed Bradley has shot up boards but has he really gotten that much better? The upside is higher than Hultzen's but are a very good Cape stint and a solid junior season enough?

Bubba Starling, is he Ken Griffey Jr or Josh Hamilton? Seems like a combination of the two. I could honestly see Seattle taking him.

Dylan Bundy family connection could make him an easier signing but does the Hobgood taint make him untouchable? I've read that he will be a fast mover like some college arms, but with higher upside. if the two former #1 picks end up on the same minor league roster he could be the type of workout influence Matt needs.

Sonny Gray, he was my early favorite at #4. But he has struggled with control, issuing a lot of walks, hitting batters and throwing wild pitches. It could be that Gray who will challenge himself is working on other things leading to the control problems because despite it all he still is not getting hit hard. Until the South Carolina game he had only given up 2 extra base hits both doubles.

I'd be very disappointed in a Hultzen selection. Bradley and Gray are two guys I need to get more info on. And I'd be happy with Starling or Bundy, with Starling being my #1.

Fantasy getting Rendon draft:
Pirates Cole (Rendon not playing the field)
Mariners Starling (Ken Griffey Jr)
Arizona Holtzen
Orioles Rendon (hey we got Wieters so)

BTW if I'm a 'backs fan and end up with Holtzen and Jungmann I'd be upset to end up with what are likely to be #2-3 starters with two top 7 picks. Shoot for the moon 'backs not the safe or affordable.
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Re: Ranking the 2011 Draft prospects

PostPost #85 by Don » April 25th, 2011, 9:39 am

If you read earlier or I have made this comment in another thread, you have to take last season College baseball with a grain of salt and this season is a greatly enhanced version of what to expect in the minor and major leagues of baseball.

Why?

These new bats have done two fold for us scouts. It is has allowed us to see true power and hitting ability over the "ping" launching bats. Those old bats allowed the 5'8" and 155 lb. second baseman jack those balls out as if he were a clean up hitter. The power guys looked like the next coming of the great line of power hitters. Pitchers were forced to pitch away from contact and you failed to get the entire glimps of thier makeup. Pitchers were so afraid to get pulled by the jack in the box coaches that you saw everything away.

Pitchers today will buzzsaw hitters because the BBCOR leads to a lazy fly ball over a weak hit into the stands. You get a cleaner glimps of the type of pitcher he can be on the mound in wooden bats. You also get to see who will be a featured hitter from the college ranks. Everything is a tad bit easier for scouts to make a fair assessment about a prospects skills.

This hopefully reduced your concern over Jed Bradley. The kid attacks hitters with a passion and he has not even scratched the surface to fully build off his frame.
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Re: Ranking the 2011 Draft prospects

PostPost #86 by Don » April 25th, 2011, 11:57 am

My friend just got back to me a short while ago. He was scouting Bradley and said that he was touching 94 with ease and was able to kick it up to 96 on his gun. He showed alot of what we have being seeing all spring. I do not see him out of the top 5 players on my board and feel it is between him and Bundy for the number 4 pick, at least in my mind, with Starling being the only other option to select.

Hopefully Starling can get out of the trainers room and get back on the field.
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Re: Ranking the 2011 Draft prospects

PostPost #87 by Jordan Tuwiner » April 25th, 2011, 5:57 pm

Rising O's wrote:I fear the Orioles lack of upper level pitching talent will ultimately decide which pitcher to take. While I'm okay with finding a fast moving arm, in this particular draft I feel they need to choose the guy with the most upside. Mostly due to the fact that the AL East has far too many picks to compete with coupled with our non-presence internationally.

Danny Hultzen seems like a poor man's Brian Matusz. For the right team he makes sense, but not for us.

Jed Bradley has shot up boards but has he really gotten that much better? The upside is higher than Hultzen's but are a very good Cape stint and a solid junior season enough?

Agree re: most upside. And at this point it looks like that guy is Dylan Bundy, who I'd like at #4.

I don't know enough about Jed Bradley to have an opinion on him, but Don has me (and others covered), as he'll have a scouting report up sometime next week.
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Re: Ranking the 2011 Draft prospects

PostPost #88 by Jordan Tuwiner » April 25th, 2011, 5:58 pm

Don wrote:My friend just got back to me a short while ago. He was scouting Bradley and said that he was touching 94 with ease and was able to kick it up to 96 on his gun. He showed alot of what we have being seeing all spring. I do not see him out of the top 5 players on my board and feel it is between him and Bundy for the number 4 pick, at least in my mind, with Starling being the only other option to select.

Hopefully Starling can get out of the trainers room and get back on the field.

What kind of secondary stuff does he have?
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Re: Ranking the 2011 Draft prospects

PostPost #89 by Jordan Tuwiner » April 25th, 2011, 5:59 pm

Not that he's in the discussion for #4 pick anymore, but Jackie Bradley is likely out for the rest of the season with a torn wrist ligament.

http://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/62649743104413696
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Re: Ranking the 2011 Draft prospects

PostPost #90 by Don » April 25th, 2011, 6:43 pm

Well I guess it is a lock at #7 for him. I bet the diamondbacks are going to talk with him in-directly to see if he might do a "sweetheart" deal.
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