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The Orioles Are A Mess

The Orioles Are A Mess

PostPost #1 by osforlife » October 3rd, 2013, 3:15 pm

1. Position wise, Baltimore has huge holes at second, in left, and at DH.

2. I remember reading an article on hot-stove saying the Orioles have pretty much maxed out on their salary room. Although Baltimore has many upcoming free agents, many of their players are up for arbitration raises. So supposedly, DD does not have much financial room to work with.

3. Our farm system is crap. Losing Dylan Bundy was a huge blow, but even before then, it was a pretty hopeless cause. DD managed to trade away Josh Hader, Nick Delmonico, LJ Hoes, and Xavier Avery for a negative WAR. Although Bud Norris still has two years left on his contracts, the three players Mr. Duquette traded for from these prospects, have provided a below replacement level value. The Orioles have a solid second base prospect in Schoop, and a solid catching prospect in Ohlman. The decent player spectrum ends after that.

4. Our rotation is not good at all. Tillman, Gonzalez, and Chen are solid, but do not make them anything more than what they are; middle of the rotation starters. Bud Norris really should not be a starter, but considering what DD gave up for him, Oriole fans are probably stuck with him. The 5th spot is a mystery.
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Re: The Orioles Are A Mess

PostPost #2 by Seafordeagles » October 3rd, 2013, 6:34 pm

I'll reserve my judgement until opening day 2014.
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Re: The Orioles Are A Mess

PostPost #3 by Old Sneakers » October 3rd, 2013, 8:04 pm

osforlife wrote:Bud Norris really should not be a starter, but considering what DD gave up for him, Oriole fans are probably stuck with him. The 5th spot is a mystery.


He's not that bad~ Just sayin'
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Re: The Orioles Are A Mess

PostPost #4 by dan72 » October 4th, 2013, 10:40 am

What we need is young arms with options so that we can rest our bullpen. The reason some guys faded in stretches was primarily due to fatigue.
A team can never have enough pitching.
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Re: The Orioles Are A Mess

PostPost #5 by Old Sneakers » October 4th, 2013, 2:44 pm

dan72 wrote:What we need is young arms with options so that we can rest our bullpen. The reason some guys faded in stretches was primarily due to fatigue.
A team can never have enough pitching.


Well your right, options are a great thing. Very useful when you need to make roster adjustments in the pen or rotation. However, this team does an exceptionally good job of wasting them. For example look at how fast the options on Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz, Gausman and Britton have been burned through.

The team is going to start keeping veteran pitching at least long enough to allow prospects to be major league ready. Not "Almost ready" or "We just can't help ourselves promote them anyway ready". I really do not want to see Gausman, Wright and Rodriguez ruined out of desperation.
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Re: The Orioles Are A Mess

PostPost #6 by osforlife » October 4th, 2013, 4:42 pm

Old Sneakers wrote:
He's not that bad~ Just sayin'

I'm a big fan of saber-metrics, but at some point I draw a line. Although, Norris' FIP/xFIP/SIERA has never been above 4.26 the past four years, I honestly think it's a little generous towards him. Norris gets hit hard consistently(around H/9) and a extended time in the American League can only hurt that number. He walks too many people, and his strikeouts dropped substantially after never regularly facing a pitcher. His lowest WHIP ever was a 1.33. I'm not sure how Minute Maid Park affects pitchers/hitters, but not many pitchers can get better by pitching half the time in Camden Yards.
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Re: The Orioles Are A Mess

PostPost #7 by ofahn » October 5th, 2013, 9:22 am

osforlife wrote:1. Position wise, Baltimore has huge holes at second, in left, and at DH.

I'm not worried about 2B and DH as much as LF. I still believe that the team will resign Roberts to a modest base with big incentives and he will be #1 on the depth chart. As well as Schoop played in his audition I don't think the FO is willing to gamble that he'll be ready out of spring training, but I would not be surprised to see him as the regular 2B by mid June.

Flaherty is the fall back option. I absolutely do not believe we will trade for a Ian Kinsler or a Howie Kendrick for more good reasons than I care to take the time to list.

I could see the team bringing back Danny Valencia to be the RH part of a DH platoon although I would like to see the team try to find a hitter for the LH part that is a high OBA guy with plate discipline and patience. This team desperately needs that balance.

LF is a big question mark. I was hoping that McLouth would have a big September and be worth a qualified offer so we would get a first round draft pick for him. Didn't happen. I could see the team signing him again IF he's willing to accept 5M or less. I have doubts that Urrutia is ready to be a regular and since he's LH we can't platoon him with McLouth.

What we need is a young, plus defender with good plate discipline, a high OBA, and speed translated into base running skills. You know, like L J Hoes whom we traded away for a #5 SP.

osforlife wrote:2. I remember reading an article on hot-stove saying the Orioles have pretty much maxed out on their salary room. Although Baltimore has many upcoming free agents, many of their players are up for arbitration raises. So supposedly, DD does not have much financial room to work with.


Even if the Orioles increase their payroll to 100M (IMO a reasonable amount for this market) there will only be about 20M to play with after the arbitration raises eat up the payroll we'll lose through FA. Of course, if we trade Hardy or Jim Johnson or even Chris Davis that provides more money to play with: but to what end? There's virtually nothing on the "free" agent market I would be willing to offer a multi-year contract to.

osforlife wrote:3. Our farm system is crap.

Those five words sum up this franchise's problem.

osforlife wrote:4. Our rotation is not good at all. Tillman, Gonzalez, and Chen are solid, but do not make them anything more than what they are; middle of the rotation starters. Bud Norris really should not be a starter, but considering what DD gave up for him, Oriole fans are probably stuck with him. The 5th spot is a mystery.


If we're going to spend that small payroll surplus it should be on SP. Take some risks and sign some gambles. Last winter I wanted us to trade foe Ervin Santana and sign Fransisco Liriano. Both of them were anything but sure things, but I felt they were the best choices for big returns. I have no way of knowing this for certain, but I'm willing to bet that ownership was unwilling to take on Santana's salary and wouldn't gamble on Liriano's medical history.

We would be in the playoffs now if we had made those moves.
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Re: The Orioles Are A Mess

PostPost #8 by ofahn » October 5th, 2013, 9:25 am

Old Sneakers wrote:He's not that bad

IMO he's a decent #5 SP, nothing more.
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Re: The Orioles Are A Mess

PostPost #9 by Tucker Blair » October 5th, 2013, 11:03 am

The minor league system has plenty of talent. Believe me. It's the development that has hindered the organization for so long. Of course, changing development philosophy takes more than just a year or two to alter. So in reality, we really do not know how that is going quite yet. Have I seen some improvement from past years? Possibly...but not sure how much.

I pretty much echo the notion above that the O's will keep some veteran pitching around until younger starters prove they can pitch at the MLB level. I'll have a piece coming out this week on Kevin Gausman and what he needs to do in order to become a successful MLB starter. If you look at the Orioles current roster, they need to have at least someone hold the ground until Gausman, Dylan Bundy, Eduardo Rodriguez, Mike Wright and maybe some others are ready.

I do believe 2B will work itself out next season. If the Orioles can salvage an average season out of Ryan Flaherty, Jonathan Schoop, and maybe Brian Roberts...then it should be fine.
LF is the main concern. If the Orioles do not sign Nate McLouth, you are looking at Steve Pearce, Henry Urrutia and Jason Pridie as the only option on the 40-man roster to play LF. That's just not gonna cut it, especially from a depth standpoint. And the Orioles do not have an OF in the minors ready for the jump to the MLB.


It will be curious to see if the Orioles actually break the bank and spend some money. After two winning season in a row, it sure does make some sense.
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Re: The Orioles Are A Mess

PostPost #10 by osforlife » October 6th, 2013, 12:55 pm

Jonathan Schoop hasn't hit well since he was nineteen years old in Delmarva. Let's actually slow down his development, stop rushing him to the next level, and see if he can actually hit in the minors. He's not ready, and the Orioles need a stopgap until he is ready.

Steve Pearce and Danny Valencia will be back next year. I hope the front office is smart enough to make them nothing more than right-handed complements. They can't hit RHP, but Baltimore finally came to their sense and let them hit against LHP by the end of the year. Also, the Orioles could platoon Jeff Baker with Ryan Flaherty.

I'd be interested in David Murphy to play left field. He doesn't come with a nasty platoon split, will come cheap, and is due for a bounce back year. He has a career line of .275/.337/.440 in Texas.

I mentally punch Mr. Duquette in the face everyday for giving up Delmonico, Hoes, Hader, Avery, and our supplementary first round pick.
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Re: The Orioles Are A Mess

PostPost #11 by Tucker Blair » October 6th, 2013, 1:07 pm

osforlife wrote:Jonathan Schoop hasn't hit well since he was nineteen years old in Delmarva. Let's actually slow down his development, stop rushing him to the next level, and see if he can actually hit in the minors. He's not ready, and the Orioles need a stopgap until he is ready.

Steve Pearce and Danny Valencia will be back next year. I hope the front office is smart enough to make them nothing more than right-handed complements. They can't hit RHP, but Baltimore finally came to their sense and let them hit against LHP by the end of the year. Also, the Orioles could platoon Jeff Baker with Ryan Flaherty.

I'd be interested in David Murphy to play left field. He doesn't come with a nasty platoon split, will come cheap, and is due for a bounce back year. He has a career line of .275/.337/.440 in Texas.

I mentally punch Mr. Duquette in the face everyday for giving up Delmonico, Hoes, Hader, Avery, and our supplementary first round pick.


I have seen Schoop play plenty. To say he hasn't hit well is simply not true. Does he need some more seasoning in the minors? Absolutely. He still needs to work on his plate discipline and pitch recognition, especially against secondary like SL, CV. But to say he hasn't hit well is far from the truth. His back injury this season was a big detriment to his development though. I do agree that he isn't ready though.
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Re: The Orioles Are A Mess

PostPost #12 by osforlife » October 6th, 2013, 1:12 pm

Jonathan Schoop at Frederick:
.269/.326/.375

Jonathan Schoop at Bowie:
.245/.324/.386

Jonathan Schoop at Norfolk:
.256/.301/.396

I understand he is younger than the average age in these leagues, but he's simply average at every level. Why move him up if he hasn't mastered the level? I want him to be raking in AAA before he's called up to play regularly in the majors.
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Re: The Orioles Are A Mess

PostPost #13 by Tucker Blair » October 6th, 2013, 1:24 pm

osforlife wrote:Jonathan Schoop at Frederick:
.269/.326/.375

Jonathan Schoop at Bowie:
.245/.324/.386

Jonathan Schoop at Norfolk:
.256/.301/.396

I understand he is younger than the average age in these leagues, but he's simply average at every level. Why move him up if he hasn't mastered the level? I want him to be raking in AAA before he's called up to play regularly in the majors.


Because numbers are not everything. They are good to use as concurrence with the eye, but should never be used to indicate whether a player is truly ready in the minors.

Machado at Frederick in 2011:
.245/.308/.384
Machado at Bowie in 2012:
.266/.352/.438

Hardly tearing the cover off the ball, but I think we would all agree that Machado was ready for the jump.
It's important to challenge players, especially those that are extremely talented. Playing against your own level and tearing the cover off the ball is not always the ideal thing.

I do agree that he should spend more time in the minors before being a part of the MLB club. He does have plenty to work on.
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Re: The Orioles Are A Mess

PostPost #14 by Tucker Blair » October 6th, 2013, 1:46 pm

But I think the underlying point is that Schoop is not quite ready to be playing at the MLB level. I agree, you agree, and if they can find someone else (even internally) to play while he improves in the minors...they should do it.
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Re: The Orioles Are A Mess

PostPost #15 by Rising O's » October 6th, 2013, 2:23 pm

The Orioles biggest cause for failure was the bullpen consistently giving up leads from the 6th inning on. The other was a balanced offense, especially when it came to getting on base and pushing runs across without the benefit of an xbh.

I feel Ryan Flaherty has proven to be a not quite major league player. Sure he provides some value for defense, cost and age, but he simply cannot hit well enough. He has not hit since his AA days. The Orioles need better.

The Orioles are once again on the sidelines when it comes to signing international free agents. Alexander Guerrero would fit in perfectly at 2nd. Allows Schoop to move to 3rd. Omar Infante would work as well.

Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana as the TOR starter the Orioles need?
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