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Regarding impending free agents

Regarding impending free agents

PostPost #1 by Old Sneakers » September 28th, 2013, 4:36 pm

I was curious if anyone had a useful link regarding this year's free agent class. For instance, if the Orioles make a qualifying offer of one year to Scott Feldman. Will they receive a pick in the sandwich round in next year's draft?

I know it's going to be interesting in regards to contracts this offseason. The team is going to need to do some juggling. As well as make some tough choices.
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Re: Regarding impending free agents

PostPost #2 by osforlife » September 28th, 2013, 6:31 pm

I think this is a good article that may or may not be able to answer your question. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-hi ... offseason/

The Orioles upcoming free agents include Jason Hammel, Scott Feldman, Tsuyoshi Wada, Francisco Rodriguez, Alexi Casilla, Brian Roberts, Nate McLouth, Wilson Betemit, and Mike Morse. None are good enough to receive a qualifying offer. Tim Dierkes of MLBTR, expects Nate McLouth to sign a 2 year, $10MM contract. Steve Adams of MLBTR, expects Scott Feldman to receive a two year, $17MM contract. I don't want to pay $14MM for players who should be receiving $5MM & $8.5MM, respectively. I'd expect if we extended a QO to either of them, they'd say yes.
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Re: Regarding impending free agents

PostPost #3 by Old Sneakers » September 28th, 2013, 8:03 pm

the nuts and bolts are pretty simple: for teams with free agents to be who have been on their roster all season

Quoting your link here.

This would mean Feldman is not eligible for a 1 year qualifying offer (so the team would receive compensation). Though the team absolutely can try to sign him. Feldman was aquired via trade and seems exempt from this part of the process. This is where trading Arrieta really hurt. Yes, things weren't working out well here. Though he ended up being a fine acquisition for Chicago. We ended up with a decent rental arm in a failed campaign. Feldman didn't think much of the trade and apparently wants out anyway.


Nate McLouth has been solid for our team and we will miss him. However, I do not see him worth big money. Even if only for two seasons. Giving him a qualifying offer for one season would make sense as to date he's been playing for pay. It seems to me he would want a multi-year deal someplace else. This might be the way to go: Make the qualifying offer. If he stays one more season then great. If not, a compensation choice would help us later on.

Jason Hammel though he had a poor year in comparison to what we expected, might see a qualifying offer and attempted to be resigned. One more season of Hammel would make some sense. Our minor league teams have only one or perhaps two that may be ready to contribute as soon (Wright and Rodriguez) as next season. I do not think there is much in the way of veteran free agents worth a huge salary for this team. Again, make the offer. Worst case scenario he resigns and we save an option here or there on a prospect that isn't ready. Hopefully we see the Jason Hammel of 2012.

I expect the team will try to re-sign Casilla. Then pass on resigning Brian Roberts and Wilson Betemit. As for Mike Morse, I wasn't all that sure if it matters that we traded to get him in the first place.
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Re: Regarding impending free agents

PostPost #4 by osforlife » September 29th, 2013, 10:08 am

Oh yes, I completely forgot about how the trading process effects the qualifying offer. Scott Feldman is no longer eligible for draft pick compensation. I still think DD made the right move to acquire Feldman. I'm confident that Jake Arrieta was never going to be able to succeed in Baltimore. Pedro Strop has been a mess ever since August 2012. They may have never used their extreme talents to their fullest extent playing for the Orioles. This is the only trade I approved of in 2013. Feldman is a good middle of the rotation pitcher that will be a free agent after the season; Baltimore will need to acquire a couple starting pitchers. I hope the Orioles could give him a two year contract, but pay him for the pitcher that is in between his 2012 & 2013 years, because that is what he probably is IMO.

Nate McLouth has been a solid player, concluding what has been a solid tenure with the Orioles, concluding what has turned out to be a solid bargain price. Unfortunately, Nate McLouth is no more than a highly respectable fourth outfielder. Nate plays only average defense, can't hit LHP, and forgot that what makes him a productive player is his base-running value. McLouth completely rid of his stealing ability from his repertoire after the first half. Before the all-star break, McLouth earned twenty net steals; he would only earn three more net steals the rest of the year. Nate McLouth is lucky he is on the more useful side of a platoon, but should probably still be the fourth outfielder on a good team at the beginning of the year. If Baltimore would extend a qualifying offer to McLouth, he'd accept it in a heartbeat, because $14MM for one year is more than he will get on the free agent market in two years.

As for Jason Hammel, Baltimore got lucky that he had the kind of year that he did in 2012. It was an abnormality. Up to 2012, Hammel's best H/9, HR/9, and K/9 had been 9.2, 0.9, and 7.1, respectably. In 2012, those numbers jumped to 7.9, 0.7, and 8.6. 2013 is a much better indicator of what kind of pitcher Hammel is. He's a 5th starter. He will not be extended a qualifying offer, as $14MM is much more than he should recieive.
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Re: Regarding impending free agents

PostPost #5 by Rising O's » September 29th, 2013, 2:31 pm

Selig did something right by changing the compensation system. I still feel it needs some tweaking though.
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Re: Regarding impending free agents

PostPost #6 by LA Detective » September 29th, 2013, 9:36 pm

McClouth- why did he stop stealing bases?. was he over exposed? I am not as big on him coming back as last year. If he does, I would only want it in a strict platoon with an equal. We can probably find better elsewhere.

Hammel- I think there is a chance he comes cheap with a one yr to get his career going again. He gutted out an injury. I still say his best years are ahead of him like Guthurie. I see innings as the biggest problems going into next year. He has potential to be the answer. His probable 1 yr signing wouldn't be much of a risk.

Brian Roberts- I think the problem here is that he plays our deepest, youthful, cheapest offensive position. Unless we plan on trading Schoop or RyanF I would applaud and pass.
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Re: Regarding impending free agents

PostPost #7 by ofahn » October 2nd, 2013, 9:23 am

LA Detective wrote:McClouth- why did he stop stealing bases?

I was wondering about that, too. Maybe t8he team just got a little homer happy and focused too much on the big inning. I know we sure didn't focus on manufacturing runs and we're sitting at home watching the post season as a result.
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Re: Regarding impending free agents

PostPost #8 by ofahn » October 2nd, 2013, 9:28 am

LA Detective wrote:Hammel- I think there is a chance he comes cheap with a one yr to get his career going again.

Two schools of thought on that. The first is that he probably feels comfortable here and knows he has a very solid defense behind him. The Second is that he might be better off rebuilding his value in a stadium like Seattle's where his ERA will drop by a half point or so.

If he can be signed for about 5M with the same amount of incentives I would take the risk because we're going to need to add at least three ML legit SPs this winter for depth.
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Re: Regarding impending free agents

PostPost #9 by ofahn » October 2nd, 2013, 9:31 am

Rising O's wrote:Selig did something right by changing the compensation system. I still feel it needs some tweaking though.

I believe that teams digging out from years of bad records (us, the Pirates, etc.) should be given a graduated additional bonus amount each year. The team should be able to carry over as much as half of that amount to the next year if they don't use it. If they don't use it in the second year they lose it.
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Re: Regarding impending free agents

PostPost #10 by Old Sneakers » October 2nd, 2013, 4:46 pm

Rising O's wrote:Selig did something right by changing the compensation system. I still feel it needs some tweaking though.


The trouble with dropping the Type A / Type B designation is that the big market teams suffer no consequences. Under the old system they forfeited a 1st or 2nd round draft choice.

Now as is, the team losing a player (If a qualifying offer was made) get's a pick in the sandwich round.

My issue is
1-No constraint needed for the big market teams
2-Teams losing a player won't always be compensated fairly.

What I mean by #2 is with a player like Nate McLouth we may well lose him and not even have the payroll to make a qualifying offer. Perhaps not him this year. Certainly down the line we will lose quality players and walk away with nothing.

From the get go this deal is bugged and I don't favor it. I think some teams losing free agents should get some sort of compensation. Even some token sandwich round following round 8 in the draft would be something.
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Re: Regarding impending free agents

PostPost #11 by Rising O's » October 2nd, 2013, 10:19 pm

The entire point of the draft was to help smaller market teams compete. That to me is where the focus needs to remain.

I have said that compensation should not be awarded to organizations that for whatever reasons fail to sign their free agents. But on the flip side, organizations that sign free agents should be penalized draft picks. These picks are lost, not to be awarded which in my opinion dilute the intention of the draft. Case in point, the Yankees had 3 first round picks in 2013's draft.

MLB put in place a system to compensate smaller market teams with additional draft choices. We had two high ones the last two years, though we traded the pick for 2014 already. If organizations are not awarded extra draft compensation for losing free agents and organizations are penalized draft picks for signing free agents then the value of compensation system increases because these smaller market teams will choose from better overall talent.
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