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Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #136 by ofahn » August 8th, 2013, 9:46 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:I don't READ the thread again

I can see that.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #137 by Seafordeagles » August 8th, 2013, 9:47 pm

goodbye, thanks for the ride.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #138 by osforlife » September 15th, 2013, 9:43 am

Say the Orioles traded JJ Hardy to the Tigers for Johnny Peralta and Nick Castellannos. I wonder if the O's would have moved Machado to short. I wonder if the O's will ever move Machado to short. But let's say they kept Manny at third, while Peralta manned short. Per baseball-reference, Hardy would probably provide about a 7.5 WAR for Detriot over 2013 and 2014. Peralta provided 3.4 WAR in roughly 2/3 of the season. If the Orioles were willing to transition Machado 2/3 of the way through the season, Castellanos would have to provide a 4 WAR through his controllable seasons with the O's, which I'm sure he would do. Baltimore would have a longterm solution at shortstop and third base for years. Baltimore would probably have to throw in a pitching prospect to make this deal work IMO; pretty respectable trade proposal.

Now, this off-season, I'd like to propose a different trade regarding Hardy. The main objective here is to get Machado to shortstop as quickly as possible. I'd trade one year of Hardy for two years of David Freese, along with a B pitching prospect. Hardy is a better player than Freese, which is why one extra year of Freese, the upgrade of Machado moving to short, and the pitching prospect should more than balance out the trade. Freese has had a bad year, but his BABIP is down about thirty points for his career BABIP. I'd say with his trade, Baltimore is practically trading defense for OBP.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #139 by Old Sneakers » September 16th, 2013, 11:51 am

I agree, Machado's real value is at SS. However, I have to guess that the team isn't going to do it unless some legit talent at 3B comes along. That legit talent isn't in the Orioles system. To get it, you would likely have to trade more than JJ Hardy to get it.

Again, it's my same tired gripe. The team isn't maximizing it's draft and minor league system. Starting pitching and Middle Infielders are hard to get and groom. Corner infielders and relievers are not. But here we are again with at best the "Glass is half full" Frankly I can't think of one area the minor league and draft system the team has done well with.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #140 by ofahn » September 16th, 2013, 6:04 pm

osforlife wrote:I'd trade one year of Hardy for two years of David Freese, along with a B pitching prospect.

I'd actually considered Freese because he's the kind of hard nosed player that we could really use; however, I'm concerned about his injury history. If we can't trade Johnson and a prospect for Castellanos then I would consider Freese a fall back option.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #141 by ofahn » September 16th, 2013, 6:06 pm

Old Sneakers wrote:The team isn't maximizing it's draft and minor league system.

...and hasn't for a long time which is why we have an empty farm system.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #142 by osforlife » September 17th, 2013, 4:37 pm

1. Draft the players
2. Make those players EARN their promotion to the next level
3. Don't trade away prospects in stupid rental deals
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #143 by osforlife » September 17th, 2013, 4:45 pm

ofahn wrote:I'd actually considered Freese because he's the kind of hard nosed player that we could really use; however, I'm concerned about his injury history. If we can't trade Johnson and a prospect for Castellanos then I would consider Freese a fall back option.

Unless that prospect is Schoop I don't see it. But we've been over trading for Castellanos before. I'd rather take Castellanos over Freese, but David is a much more realistic target. A trade of Freese would open up a spot at second for Wong, as Carpenter would slide over to third full-time. I honestly wouldn't trade Freese, because I love relying on players like Zobrist/Carpenter/Flaherty as super utilities. But if it means they'll get Hardy, I think they'll give up Freese and Tim Cooney for Hardy.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #144 by Seafordeagles » September 17th, 2013, 7:46 pm

Detroit doesn't need Hardy now. They have Iglesias, and with that lineup it doesn't matter how he hits as long as he keeps playing good defense. Castellanos is being groomed for the outfield where they have a need. I don't see Detroit trading Castellanos unless he flops.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #145 by ofahn » September 17th, 2013, 8:33 pm

Seafordeagles wrote:Detroit doesn't need Hardy now. They have Iglesias, and with that lineup it doesn't matter how he hits as long as he keeps playing good defense. Castellanos is being groomed for the outfield where they have a need. I don't see Detroit trading Castellanos unless he flops.

If you read the thread again you'll see the suggestion is that Hardy is traded to St. Louis.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #146 by ofahn » September 17th, 2013, 8:36 pm

osforlife wrote:Unless that prospect is Schoop I don't see it.

We're not going to trade Schoop for Castellanos. I can see someone like Matusz or Patton being added instead of a prospect.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #147 by Seafordeagles » September 17th, 2013, 9:26 pm

I guess the title of the thread threw me off...........................................................
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #148 by osforlife » September 18th, 2013, 9:55 am

ofahn wrote:We're not going to trade Schoop for Castellanos. I can see someone like Matusz or Patton being added instead of a prospect.

If Baltimore were to trade Johnson and a prospect to Detroit for Castellanos, that prospect would have to be Schoop. There's no question Castellanos is a much better prospect than Schoop at this point. A straight up swap of Schoop and Castellanos would be unfair. Enter Jim Johnson. That would be somewhat respectable, but I'm not even sure that would get it done. Detroit definitely is not trading one of the best positional prospects in the game for a couple of relievers, one of who they'll only contain for one year.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #149 by ofahn » September 18th, 2013, 5:06 pm

osforlife wrote: Detroit definitely is not trading one of the best positional prospects in the game for a couple of relievers, one of who they'll only contain for one year.

MLB Trade Rumors ran several stories this summer implying that the Tigers were willing to do just that, and it makes sense.

Detroit has spent a ton of money building a WS team, but didn't have a reliable closer. I have a feeling that the playoffs will show that they still don't have one. If they have late inning meltdowns in October I can see ownership behind an effort to improve their bullpen and closer is an integral part of that.

IMO the fact that Johnson is working on year to year contracts is actually an incentive for the Tigers. 2014 will be his walk year so JJ will have an incentive to perform at his top level. If he does so and Detroit wants to bring him back for 2015 they just have to make a qualified offer, which only obligates them for one season. If he leaves they get a first round draft choice. I see one year of Johnson, a decent prospect or a player like Matusz or Patton AND a first round draft pick as fair compensation for Castellanos if it gives the Tigers their best chance of winning the WS. We'll see if Detroit's FO agrees.
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Re: Tigers want Hardy, but O's unlikely to deal him

PostPost #150 by osforlife » September 20th, 2013, 7:23 pm

ofahn wrote:MLB Trade Rumors ran several stories this summer implying that the Tigers were willing to do just that, and it makes sense.

Detroit has spent a ton of money building a WS team, but didn't have a reliable closer. I have a feeling that the playoffs will show that they still don't have one. If they have late inning meltdowns in October I can see ownership behind an effort to improve their bullpen and closer is an integral part of that.

IMO the fact that Johnson is working on year to year contracts is actually an incentive for the Tigers. 2014 will be his walk year so JJ will have an incentive to perform at his top level. If he does so and Detroit wants to bring him back for 2015 they just have to make a qualified offer, which only obligates them for one season. If he leaves they get a first round draft choice. I see one year of Johnson, a decent prospect or a player like Matusz or Patton AND a first round draft pick as fair compensation for Castellanos if it gives the Tigers their best chance of winning the WS. We'll see if Detroit's FO agrees.

-They won't agree.
-I have to believe that there aren't so many idiots in the world that would pay a relief pitcher $14MM per year.
-Jim Johnson would accept $14MM in a heartbeat.
-It's debatable whether players perform better in their walk year.
-But why would Detroit trade away a great prospect for something they might already have, and if not, can just buy? Also, consider that reliever they could buy is most likely better than the reliever they would trade for. Plus, consider than Castellanos is ready to contribute, and position players are much more valuable than relief pitchers.
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